Make a Fool Outta Me?

Tuesday, January 16, 6:17 pm EST. I wrote this morning that all the good I had seen leading up to Tuesday morning had vanished. I wondered, What had gone wrong? It should have led to a pretty rough day for our miners… and, then, a reader, who tracks NUGT intra-day, wrote me a couple of times to tell me of the strength it was exhibiting and how well it was doing. And, by the end of the trading today, the price of the metals had about fully recovered. It’s nUtZ, I’m tellin’ ya!

Anyway, I always go about getting my head back together by looking at the charts. Price and volume don’t lie, and they pretty much always have something to say.

And, sure enough, the miners, by and large, had a fine outing today. And, that, on a day when the metals themselves hardly moved. Gold up a bit, and silver off almost nothing. Four issues were off some, but the remaining symbols I track, the other 12, did just fine. The volume for all 16 was 36% above its own 50-day average, which is a feat it has not been doing lately.

Here is what is working here, price is rising rather handily, and volume has expanded considerably. There’s been some unsettling volatility, and it makes for some nervous trading, but I’m perfectly content to be letting my long-term investments in the sector ride. Overhead resistance has been being challenged, and has also been being overcome!

There’s very little overhead resistance left… see the last September top, and the August ’16 tops. that’s all that is left, and the distance left to clear this next top… is only something like 1% away in the price of gold, and if we see the miners catching up and outperforming the metal on the way toward that breakout… it’s another sign that a real rally has been in the works since the Dec 12/13 bottom I had marked.

It’s shaping up quite well, and still I don’t hear anything from any others about this, not that I’m well connected, or have other sources. I do my own work, and if anything comes my way, I consider it.

Harold

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And, Just When I Thought….

Tuesday, January 16, 6:28 am EST. I’m beginning to think that the precious metals are an awfully perverse thing! Just look at my last couple of posts. These things were truly beginning to heat up. They were looking just like they were getting ready to truly launch. I go to look in on the metals prices this morning, expecting all things good to still be in place, and I am like… What the????

Gold’s off 1/2 of 1%, and silver, well, it’s fallen the better part of 2%!!! What is THAT all about. Up until now, prices had been looking good, real good… and, I was expecting a good share price pop at the open this morning at 9:30. But, alas, such is not likely to be the case.

I’ll try to learn of what’s up, and should I discover a ‘reason,’ I’ll get back to you with it. Sorta makes me glad I no longer have a trade on, I guess, but if this kind of volatility is going to persist, and become the norm, that will also make it… UNtradable!

Harold

Gold and Silver! Silver and Gold!!!

Monday, January 15, 7:36 am EST. Gold and silver are having a good outing overseas. Prices are up, and the mining shares should open with a pop this morning at 9:30… except our stock market is not open today for the MLK holiday!

So, sit back and watch the show overseas, and anywhere else, ‘cuz it ain’t gonna happen here today!

It’s certainly like we’re in the very early phase a new bull market price rally. Do you hear or see anyone anywhere else talking about it yet? Got metals?

Harold

Worth a Long, Hard Look!

Saturday, January 13, 4:30 pm EST. I last wrote about what looked to be some real promise. Now, it’s time to take a hard look at Friday.

What do my charts say? In the order they appear, the following cleared January 2 resistance with VOLUME! NUGT, SILJ, CDE, SGDM GDX and GLD.

The following are struggling mightily, and look to do so very soon: SLV and ABX.

Friends, this is looking to get very serious! I kid you not. The one chart, for the average of all 16 symbols launched Friday! It cleared January 2 and the volume expanded to be 56% above its own 50-day average. We are getting an all-out bull market confirmation… and, I’m not seeing or hearing this from anybody or anywhere else yet.

Just as I had totally blown the 12/12+13 bottoming signal all my technicals would have given me at that time, had I been updating my timer; but I let the dip after the January 2 pop, which I said actually was properly contained, indicating a bullishness there, take me out of my late trade entry. I should have gotten in on the 13th, and I would have had the room to let my trade hang in place. Though I’d have been doing well, and I’ve said I make a poor trader… I don’t really mind in the least, as my gold and silver investments in bullion, numismatics, miners, mining funds, junk silver and royalty companies are doing just fine, and coming back with a vengeance! I’ve always been a better investor.

In any case, keep an eye on the metals and miners, friends, as volume comes in on these up days, you can just know that we’re in the very early stages of what is in an ever greater likelihood of being another truly fine bull run for gold, silver and their miners.

Will this be the truly big one, resulting in gains registering in the hundreds of percent… it will… at some point! And, it could be soon.

Harold

Nothing New

Thursday, January 11, 8:51 am EST. Yes, I did sell out of my trading position, like I had mentioned, and yes, I did take a small loss. In trading, that’s actually a good thing. It’s in keeping with the rules.

But, this is the far more important matter right now… the recent pop is still ‘good,’ and the watch for the very next bullish up move is still appropriately in effect! Today is the 7th day since the last pop, and we would very much hope to see something of another one very soon, to confirm the existence of an ongoing bull market in the metals and miners.

This market is not entirely out of the woods yet, there is still some overhead resistance to clear out. It retreated right from the very last resistance place I had identified, and I said it had struck up against that. If the next run should clear this closest point of resistance, there is only the last early September top left…. After that, we have to look all the way back to August of ’16 for any higher top, and resistance point. We clear the resistance just established on January 2, and then the September 6/7 top, only a couple of % higher, and we’re going to see money come into this trade like has not been seen in a long time.

With the soon, possible, even likely price advances that may be just out in front of us, there’s a tremendous opportunity to make trading profit like you rarely get to see in your life.

I think it’s coming!

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9:19 am EST update. Looking at charts and current prices of the metals, not only was the Tuesday decline within bounds, but Wednesday’s recovery, as weak as it may have first appeared, really wasn’t! The price and volume action of Wednesday clearly says to me that this market is truly trying to hang in there, and in the greater hope that it will advance and go higher. Further, this morning’s price gain is not to be sniffed at. The gain in gold is pretty nice. The only fly in the ointment I see is that silver is not wanting to join in… yet. I hope, even trust, that it will… then, things might begin to get exciting.

Harold

Here We Go Again?

Tuesday, January 9, 8:11 am EST. I believe I will likely need to sell out of my trading position. I had a 2% profit left in it as of Monday’s close, but I strongly suspect it will disappear at today’s open.

The opening day pop is likely all gone now. Prices had fallen back into the short, flat base it has risen from. And volume, to the downside has increased. New resistance may well be being put in where I had just noted previous resistance existed. I know I noted it, because I had also expressed a hope that it would soon and easily blow through it… it looks like it may not.

So, I need to most likely sell my trade off, and once again, patiently wait for a new opportunity. I am not discouraged, because I know that when the real thing actually takes place, a lot of profit will be accumulated at that time. It will come. It is going to happen, and we will do very well! Just not today, it would seem….

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A second look at every chart does not yet look bad. It’s just that what does not look bad at this moment, is looking to possibly begin to look bad today! A trader doesn’t wait for it to go bad, he acts when he thinks it might go bad, so that it never goes bad on him while he’s still in the trade! Then, IF it should actually turn right around, and begin to actually unfold as he first had hoped, the trader will jump right back in again, as the expected profit is to be much greater than the small loss and expense he might have incurred getting whipped out, and then, back in again. The trader’s first rule is to Never Lose Money. And, his second rule is, Never Forget Rule #1! Got it???

When this does finally work, it is going to work very well!


8:35 am EST update. I see my NUGT shares priced before the open at 31.50, two cents below my purchase price. If after 10:00, 0r so, they still below my purchase price, I will need to sell.

Harold

Powder Dry?

Monday, January 8, 6:35 am EST. The metals are not much changed over the weekend. As I look in on overseas trading, before our open, gold is up a fraction, and silver is off some, but not a great deal.

I contend that we need to mark time and digest the most recent lift from Tuesday of last week, the 2nd of January, and the opening day of 2018… and that would appear to be what is going on. This is bullish market action, because we are not ‘losing’ that which was gained then. This is sideways, consolidative price action, and is very healthy.

It has done 3 days of this, and today marks the fourth. From this point, we might expect, at any time, the next move up. If that should indeed commence, and start to take out the last of the near-term resistance, which is not but a couple of % points higher, and the recent September top; I would expect this market to catch fire, and to really begin to move should that happen.

A marked swelling of trading volume will be the tell-tale sign that this is really getting serious! Watch for it, as it may possibly commence soon. We are at a point of resistance right here, but how soon, or quickly, or easily it pushes thru this resistance here is what many a trader is watching right now. With each new breakthrough, they will add to positions, as the pros pyramid their trades, adding more positions with each new breakthrough of a resistance point.

Harold

Well, well….

Saturday, January 6, 2:23 pm EST. I receive this analysis every weekend, but rarely does it ever touch on gold… but, this week, it did!

“GOLD MAY BE BOTTOMING … No commodity bottom is credible without a corresponding upturn in gold. And that may be happening. The weekly bars in Chart 4 show the price of gold forming a potential bottoming formation that started in the middle 2013 (four and half years ago). I’ve drawn a “neckine” over the last three rally peaks extending back to the start of 2014. The last two failed rally attempts took place in mid-2016 and late summer of last year. Gold’s latest upturn (helped by a weak dollar) may lead to another test of that major resistance line. A decisive close over that line would signal that the gold market has bottomed. That would certainly strengthen the inflation argument. And it might also be a sign that investors are starting to hedge their bets against an overbought stock market. They may be buying gold miners for the same reason.

GOLD MINERS TURN UP… The daily bars in Chart 5 show the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rising to the highest level in three months (and climbing above both moving average lines). It appears ready to clear its early October peak as well. Gold miners have started to show relative strength over the past month. The GDX has gained 10% since mid-December which is three times greater than the S&P 500 gain of 3%. The GDX also outpaced the price of gold over the last month by a 10% to 6% margin. That’s important because gold miners usually rise faster than the commodity in an uptrend. Their longer range chart is also encouraging.

GOLD MINERS ETF MIGHT BE BOTTOMING AS WELL … The monthly bars in Chart 6 show the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) hitting bottom during 2015 before rallying during 2016 to the highest level in three years. After pulling back during the second half of that year, the GDX trended sideways during 2017 in a consolidation pattern. The overall look of the chart since 2015 suggests that a bottom is being formed. That would certainly support an upturn in gold which, in turn, would give a boost to commodity prices in general. It’s also worth noting that investors usually turn to gold when they start getting nervous about the stock market. So far, the rise in gold assets is relatively small. But it’s worth monitoring. That will be even more true if the GDX is able to rise above its 2016 peak (flat line). Or gold achieves a bullish breakout. I would take that as another warning sign for stocks.  John Murphy”

I would have liked to have included the associated charts, but they just wouldn’t copy and paste here. In short, this analysis was very bullish, as I have been thinking. Let’s hang in there, and hang on… there may be a lot of money to be made here shortly!!!

Harold

And, for Good Reason!

Friday, January 5, 6:08 am EST. Last post was Not Yet. This one is… For Good Reason!

Tale a look at charts for either GLD or SLV. Since the run from 12/12+13, they’ve both stretched their technical indicators into overbought territory, but that doesn’t necessarily have to mean anything. What is of far greater significance is, they have both now entered into their own respective zones of overhead resistance, where a lot of buyers of a few months ago, are wanting to get out even from their Sept., Oct., and Nov. losing purchases. Those sideways price periods were fairly long, so this present advance may need to stall, and move sideways for a bit, as well, to clear that out, and breakthrough.

We’re going to keep an eye on the price action, but since we’ve had a tremendous 3-week run-up, these markets need to mark time and tread water, until those weak hands sell out of what had been losing positions. These will then wipe their brows, and swear they’ll never do anything like that again… just as the metals take-off for their next Bull Run!

Why am I so confident of this? Well, for one big reason, if you aren’t aware of this… just take a look at charts for a great many, or even all of the other commodities! Look at DBC, DBO, FCG, KOL, PXJ or SLX. I’d say, if anything, the precious metals might even have some catching up to do, as these all are making 52-week highs! The metals are off a bit overseas. That’s fine, as long as they don’t breakdown. Let ’em breathe a bit, and then take-off again, if they start to move above present resistance, and volume expands again, it should be safe to add to positions, if one is so inclined.

Harold

Not Yet!

Thursday, January 4, 8:37 pm EST. It was starting to look very interesting, when I last wrote, but it gave some of the gain back, and closed up for the day, but not as much as had been up. Volume was on the light side again, off some 7% from the 50-day average. This is all good, this would look to be consolidating action after the Tuesday lift. That’s fine. You want that. You want to see some sideways stuff for a few days, and then hope it will commence to move up again. You don’t want to see it all at once. It’s good when it appears to be somewhat tentative, but doesn’t give all the previous gain back.

GLD has done what I had hoped it would do, too. It lifted to that place where it just filled the gap between 9/15 and 18. I had pointed that out previously. Now, we are at a point of some resistance, but I expect it to be breached in a little bit. There would be little to hold it back after that, as there is the gap and top of early September left, from which the last correction had started. That’s only about 2% away! Granted, in dollar terms, that would be maybe about $1,350 gold? I read of other traders awaiting $1,370 gold, and still others holding out for $1,400. That would be great! What they are saying, is they’re holding back, but they’ll be willing to add the fuel to the fire, if it reaches those points.

So, we’re watching, and we’re getting a bit excited. Things are working right, at this moment in time; and it may result in a really profitable move. There’s no reason it can’t… yet. I’ve got a trade on, as of Friday last week. It’s ahead for me by all of 7%. If the market runs, NUGT will fly. If it should fall back, I’ll cut my position for a small loss, if necessary, but I’m trying to give it enough room to run, if it’s going to.

Harold