Wha’ Happened?!?!?

It looks bad… is it? I don’t know yet. I see all red, and the %s down look a bit big. Has support failed? Are metals collapsing? Friday was hard on gold and silver. So, let’s get to the charts. They talk to me.

Okay, well, first of all… I guess it’s not as bad as it first looked! I have all decliners, and the first one I see is on LOW volume, AND price support held! I’m talking about AG. How many others? Let’s see… there’s CDE, HL, RIC, PAAS, AUY, SLW, SLV, GLD and SA.

I’ve others that also closed down, but only on average volume, and they also held support. There’s SSRI, AKG, FSM, IAG, PVG, ABX, RGLD, KGC, SGDM and EXK.

Now, I do find a high volume sell-off, but its support is still in place as well, in: GDX.

Fascinating! We’re right at support. Half closed down on low volume. Half closed down on average volume. And, only where the more amateur would be… in GDX, was there any high volume. The charts are sending quite a message, and that message would be… we’re not worried. We’re not spooked, and we’re not scared! So, let’s see what happens from here.

My guess, as I derive an opinion from my charts, is that this would be an excellent place from which to add shares, if I were so inclined, or, and this is the safer move (unless one employed tight stops), look for the reversal, and an expansion in volume… and hop aboard, as this is a new Bull Market. It’s still very young at 4 months old, and it’s likely a very much longer way to go yet.

It’s also worth saying, as this is very important… if this level of price support were to fail, there is a much stronger and more important support level where they all broke out from back on Friday, April 8. I’ll be on guard to see if this current level holds, or if we should back up to the next one.

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The metals are up from Monday’s closing, but off a bit from Friday’s, when we last traded them. And, the reason’s clear. As the dollar recently rose, the metals declined… now, the $USD is on the decline, and the metals are moving up again. If this is a real shift in trend for the dollar, then it will be for the metals, as well… to the UPside! Let’s see what Tuesday will bring.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Confusion? Or, Perhaps Fear?

I saw where the metals prices appeared to be little changed, with silver up a bit, and gold down a bit. As a result, about half my miners were up, and half were down! I would expect volume to be average to lower for them… and I made some portfolio adjustment. I said goodbye to NGD, as I said I would, and I added AKG and SSRI, as they looked to be among the very best, that I had not acquired shares in yet. This metals market appears to be undergoing a true pause that refreshes, and as best I am able to determine, is still in a perfect Bull Market correction phase, and at price support, meaning you can accumulate some shares now, if you are so inclined, or wait, as I did, for the next breakout on volume… I saw it happening on Friday, April 8, and jumped in with both feet. Talk to me charts, what do you have to say to us?

Decliners on low volume, but well-contained within their uptrend are: AG, HL, FSM, RIC, IAG, EXK, ABX, RGLD, GDX, SA and GLD.

Others that rose on low volume, and also show perfect Bull Market form to date: SSRI, CDE, PVG, AUY, PAAS, KGC, SLW, SGDM and SLV.

I note another that rose on average volume: AKG, a new addition today.

The picture is a beautiful one, so far. Prices were little moved, and volume declined by 1/3 of their average, indicating traders are on-board with this, and not bailing.

As I close this evening, things have swapped… Gold’s up a bit since the NY close, and silver’s off a tiny amount. I will likely check back in Friday morning. I had thought there might be confusion or fear in the market, but by the time I examined everything, I realized neither was happening, and that’s a good thing!

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A little after 6:00 am EST, Friday morning, and nothing’s changed from last night. Gold’s up a bit, silver’s off a little.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

What The?

A quick look at my account with all my mining shares shows all green. Something good had to have happened, and the support level I was noting must have held. Therefore, I would expect metals were up, or flat, and that these miners might have gone up on a little extra volume, possibly. Not having looked yet, I’ll go there now, and say that I am somewhat surprised, as I actually expected it might turn ugly just about here.

I see those that bounced off of obvious support, and rose on some extra volume just as: AG, CDE, HL, FSM, RIC, IAG, PAAS, ABX, RGLD, GDX and AGI did.

And, those that rose, but on lesser volume, like: AUY, PVG, EXK, KGC, SLW, SA and SLV did.

I’ve got a loser on big volume in: SGDM.

Gold actually declined in price, but GLD did not fall on anything more than average volume.

NGD has been jettisoned. It was obviously a wrong selection to begin with. I’ll name a replacement or two very soon.

The very clear result of these charts suggests, that even as gold declined in price for the day a little bit… that the miners all rose, and on a bit of expanding volume, makes the Bullish case for the metals and their miners again today. Support held today, in spite of falling gold. This is a tremendously huge positive. Let’s see what will happen next, on Thursday.

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Hmmmm, gold’s up some this morning. Will all the bullishness I’ve seen in the charts be vindicated? It will either have to be vindicated soon, or it will fail, break support, and fall back a good bit, I would think.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

That’s Gotta Hurt!

All I know is I see a lot of red with our miners. I know gold and silver slid back a good bit today. Before I even look at anything, I want to know if the metals prices broke near-term price support, and, if the miners did the same… or not. If they did, I would expect that volume would have been high, as traders bailed out of their non-performing positions. So, I’ll go to the charts, and see what they might be saying tonite, as I expect they might be in some pain.

The first I see closed down, did not break support, and was only on slightly more volume than average, as with: AG, CDE, PVG, PAAS, ABX, EXK, SLW, GDX, RGLD, SLV and NGD.

I’ve got these, that closed down a lot, did not yet break price support, but on big volume, like: RIC, HL, IAG, AUY, FSM, SGDM, KGC, AGI, SA and GLD.

Okay, so here’s the scoop. There is very little room left. Nearly everything has fallen to nearest price support levels, and the volume involved here is 30% greater than the average. It’s probably coming down to a crunch time, where it either needs to hold or rebound, or it’s going to start coming apart. Tomorrow’s Wednesday, we’ll see what it brings.

Back Wed. morning…

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As of almost 7:45 am EST, gold’s off almost 5 more dollars, while silver’s up a couple of pennies. We’re likely in for some more pain, as support is now going to be tested to the nth. And, if it does not hold, I would think some rapid sales would emerge as traders bail from their long positions. I’m not selling; this would be the set-up of another whole new buying opportunity inside the greater Bull Market that has emerged.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

It Ain’t Easy Being Gold

Or silver… both metals lost just a little bit of their lustre today. Nothing serious. And, you would expect to see the miners go down, but we’ve a few gainers, despite metal’s decline. I would expect that our miners, again, most of which declined, would have done so on light volume, if the overall future outlook was still positive. So, let’s see what the charts might say!

I DO have gainers, but on light volume, like: CDE, RIC, PAAS, NGD and RGLD.

Then I’ve small losers on light volume, like: AG, FSM, PVG, EXK, AUY, AGI, KGC, HL, IAG, ABX, GDX, SLW, SLV and GLD.

There’s a gainer on average volume, like: SA.

There’s also a slight loser, but on big volume in SGDM.

The message is a bullish one. Though prices slipped back a bit today, volume was very light, and this says that there’s no real concern, and certainly no panic or rush to be getting out. Price support is still in place and holding, volume is light on the downside. And, while metals prices declined, at least 6 of our holdings advanced in price! The bullish case for gold still remains intact, and an opportunity to be a buyer exists during this lull, while share prices are steady.

Let’s see what Tuesday might hold.

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Not liking what I see with the metals prices this morning. Will this be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? We’ll see by day’s end!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Where Are Things At?

The metals hung in there Friday, as did their mining shares. We saw silver close up… just a little bit. And, we saw gold close down… just a little bit. But, the miners, they mostly closed to the upside, which tells me there is still a lot of bullish anticipation out there. I’ll look at each chart for any ‘message’ they might contain.

We first see some that closed off a bit on typical volume, like: AG, NGD and GLD.

And, that rare decliner that fell on low volume, like: AUY and SA.

I’ve got two that declined on large volume: IAG and PAAS,

Since most rose, what was their volume like? I see those that rose on low volume, as: CDE, PVG, HL, KGC, ABX, SGDM, GDX, SLW, RGLD and SLV.

But others made their up move on big volume, like: RIC, AGI, FSM and EXK.

Can anything be derived from this? Since the majority, by far, rose in price, on either low or in 4 instances, big volume: We have to believe that considerable bullish conviction still exists. Silver, SLV, rose on light volume, and gold, GLD declined on average volume. I think I see conviction among traders and investors in this sector.

I may soon sell NGD, as it is weakest of my mining shares, and I have other strong prospects in the likes of SSRI and MVG. I’ll give some more consideration first, make my decision, then let you know.

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Dollar is rising, and metals are falling… gold, only a little bit, but silver a considerable bit more. This, as of 6:30 am EST. It may be a down day in the metals.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Delivered?

Metals took quite a spill, but recovered a bit. Silver was really taken down. I fully expected the miners had been whacked again today, but was most unexpectedly surprised to see nearly all of them were actually up a bit. So, as I ask myself, ‘What would I expect to see?‘ I don’t really know. With gold off a bit, and silver a lot… but, the miners mostly up. What would the volume picture be like? Let’s take a look:

I have issues up a decent amount, and on considerable volume too, like: AG, RIC, AUY, FSM, AGI, KGC, ABX,

Others rose, but not on any extraordinary volume, like: CDE, PVG, HL, IAG, PAAS, SA, NGD, SGDM, GDX, SLW, RGLD,

I’ve one that dropped a good bit, and on large volume… but, it stopped right at its most obvious level of price support: The silver miner, EXK.

Here’s what’s fascinating me… SLV, the ETF for physical silver, declined a good deal, and right to a place of very obvious price support, and bounced, but closed considerably lower in price on the day, but the silver miners did NOT, except for EXK. They closed higher on the day, for a gain! GLD also closed lower, but none of the gold mining stocks did!

This is hard to accept. I can hardly believe it, but despite the price moves in the actual metals today, the miners did remarkably, even surprisingly, well! I would have to say that the actual chart action of everything I’m looking at can only be viewed as incredibly bullish on the part of those who are behind this current price action. They’re hanging in there very optimistically.

That’s good! If it can relaunch from out of such levels, and you haven’t acquired yours yet, or are wanting to add some more… this may prove to be a very great opportunity. Friday’s jobless claims report in the morning could be a real market mover, in my estimation. If it’s a bad one, like last week’s was, the fear that has arisen concerning another Fed rate hike could quickly dissipate, and the markets would rally in relief. Let’s see what Friday holds.

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Friday morning, 6:40 am EST and the metals have a small upside bias to their prices this morning.That can’t be a bad thing. I’m thinking our 8:30 jobs report might be important soon. I’ll get back, if there is reason…

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Thank You, FOMC

I can’t believe it! The Fed-speak concerning more interest rate hikes. Those idiots! The dollar would get so strong that it would put us in a recession. So, in any case, that really put about a $21 smackdown on gold, and $.35 off of silver.

I’m going to see lots of red, considerable down-side price movement, and probably some really big volume. I don’t know yet if price support held… so, to the charts we go!

First, I do see big price declines, and on big volume… but, the volume is not really huge, and the price support has held, as with: AG, CDE, KGC, SA, SGDM and SLW.

I’ve got others, where the volume IS huge, but the price support is still in place, and unbroken: RIC, AUY, FSM, EXK, PVG, AGI, HL, IAG, PAAS, ABX, NGD, GDX, SLV and GLD.

Okay, so, plain and simple. It was a lot of volume. Most was massive, others only more than average, but not huge. The price decline was not inconsiderable, and technical price support held, but in many instances… it closed there, and we need to see a ‘deliverance’ almost immediately to turn this situation around and save it from incurring painful technical price damage. It’s off a bit more, $2.00, as I type this evening about 9:45 pm EST. Let’s see what Thursday morning will bring… darned Fed!

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So, yeh, they raised the $USD with their talk, and smashed metals, and moved all kinds of markets all kinds of ways… those fools. The metals are as follows… Gold is off almost $5 more, and silver is taking hard, being off another $.28. This could result in broken price support today, which would precipitate further share price decline. Let’s see what Thursday holds.

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One stock I recommends is Pretium Resources (PVG), and I just found this quote from a noted analyst.
“Simply put, this is one of the richest gold mines in the world in the making, with the potential to be a blockbuster. It’s no exaggeration to say that one can count deposits in this class on one hand – and this one may deserve to be the first finger. Altogether, there are 13.6 million ounces of gold in all categories, averaging 15.59 grams (0.55 ounces) of gold per ton of rock. It’s one for the record books.” Get some Pretium while prices are down.
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Just a head’s up… gold’s off more than $10, and silver’s down $.43. The open will not be pretty, as price support is almost certainly broken, as will mining share prices right from the open… all of which will likely precipitate still more selling initially. You have been warned. That darned FED!!!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

And, Just a Little Bit More!

It was a quiet day, but I see lots of green again, indicating nearly all my miners rose some more today. IF the metals prices only rose a bit, as it appears, and the miners are up… I’m going to guess, and look to see, if they only rose rather modestly, and on, what I would expect, would be light volume. So, into all the charts I go…

First up, I see one that rose a lot, and on big volume! AG. A major newsletter writer advocated buying this stock today.

Others that rose a bit, and on big volume, like: CDE, FSM, HL, AGI, PAAS and ABX.

Then there are those issues that rose, but on average volume as: IAG, AUY, EXK and SLW.

Six rose on tiny volume: KGC, NGD, SGDM, GDX, SLV and GLD.

I’ve got a decliner, my new purchase, and on average volume: PVG.

One decliner on very light volume: SA

Two fell back on huge volume: RIC and RGLD. I happen to know the same major newsletter writer advocated the selling of RGLD among his readers today.

We’ve got brand new highs with: AG, CDE, IAG, FSM, AUY, HL, AGI, PAAS and ABX. With 9 of our selection making new highs well ahead of the metals themselves, the anticipation is surely that higher metals prices are also ahead… and, for sure, the price charts for the metals themselves lend support to that belief. We’re in a good place right now… the bull is young. It’s consolidating its most recent gains, and the belief is that higher prices are out in front of us.

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9:10 am EST. Metals are giving back some. I’ll check at the close to see how price support holds, and whether any real concern is coming down upon us. At this point, miners would be close down, and I would expect volume to be at least average to heavy… but, the close is a long way off.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Still Holding and Rising a Bit

The metals were off to a great start this morning, but gave nearly all of it back, to close up by only a bit more than a dollar. At one point this morning, they were ahead by better than $10. That being the case, and seeing mostly green increases in the share prices of my holdings, I’m going to suppose that volume would have been high, but that the prices closed in the lower part of their day’s range. So, talk to me charts, what do you have to say?

We’ve got gainers on big volume in: AG, RIC, FSM and AGI.

Gainers on average volume with: IAG, PAAS, EXK and SA.

A loser on big volume in: CDE.

And gainers on light volume, as with: HL, AUY, KGC, NGD, ABX, SGDM, GDX, RGLD, SLW, SLV and GLD.

And a loser on light volume: AU.

What can I make of this? First, despite the big intra-day price move in the metals, the price change and volume for SLV and GLD were both slight. So, the big price rise in the morning did not result in excited buying and big volume the early part of the day. The miners should have done the same, and, in fact, most did. Of keen interest is the number that closed at new highs, as AG, RIC, IAG, HL and PAAS did. This would likely be in anticipation of further price advance in the actual metals themselves. The bull market is intact, and is looking for the reason and opportunity to push even higher. Let’s see what Tuesday morning will bring…

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Conducting a review of my holdings, I find that AU is badly underperforming, and not doing as I had hoped when I bought it. I will be selling it, and replacing AU with PVG. I’d recommend you do the same.

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As of almost 8:15 am EST the metals have barely moved. Same as stock futures. The world must be holding its breath, waiting for something!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell