Very Nice Day in the Metals!

Gold rose $3.70, but silver rose $.49! There’s lots of green in my trading account, but I see 4 red losers, too… wonder what that’s about? Let’s go straight to the charts, then if I need to check into the news about some, I’ll do it.

I’d expect the silver miners to be taking off, and on some pretty impressive volume… gold, not so much. Average volume, and maybe less.

I have those that rose on pretty weak volume, as: SSRI, FSM, ABX, RGLD, SGDM, GDX,

Those that rose on simply average volume were: PVG, CDE, MUX, AG, HL, SLW, PAAS,

I have decliners, and IAG was on big volume again, for the 3rd day in a row. I need to look in on this one. RIC, on the other hand, declined, but on very low volume. AUY fell on slightly less than avg volume. AKG is falling off on big volume for a 2nd day in a row. I need to look in on this one, too, as that’s just not right. What’s up with IAM Gold and Asanko Gold, eh? I’ll try to find out and get back with that… and, sell them, if we have to.

Okay, my take on the general picture. For the nice price rise in silver to result in so little volume is a bit disconcerting. The volume across all our miners was off 21%, on average. But for the ETF, SLV, its price rise was on BIG volume! 82% more than usual!!! Even GLD was rising with 36% more volume than its average. What do we make of that?

But, we do have lots of new highs… see: SSRI, PVG, CDE, MUX, FSM, AG, HL, SLW, ABX, PAAS, RGLD, SGDM, GDX and SLV… and GLD’s getting close. It’s a Bull Market in the precious metals… Got yours yet?

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For the record, 10 minutes into Friday’s trading, AKG was STILL looking pathetic, and getting NO love, so I sold my position and took a 9.4% profit still there. I don’t know what was going wrong with Asanko, as I was not able to find any news, and I was not willing to wait for it to possibly become a loser.

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I took the sales proceeds from the release of Asanko, AKG, and placed them in shares of the very best issue I could find at this time, which to me appeared to be Avino Silver, symbol ASM. Take a look for yourself, and see if it might not be a worthy candidate.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

A check at Yahoo News on IAG and AKG didn’t turn up anything to explain why they are going the wrong direction. I’ll give them just a little more time, perhaps no more than tomorrow even!

The Silver to Gold Ratio

Just saw this and it coincided perfectly with my update to the bottom of the previous post!

A crucial indicator is telling us our favorite precious metals are ready to explode higher. And it underscores why silver must make up a small – but critical – part of your portfolio. This indicator has held true throughout history. And right now, it’s showing that it’s time to buy silver again… and that silver stocks could see even bigger gains.

Let me explain… First, you should understand that silver acts like gold’s volatile shadow. Whatever direction gold moves in, silver tends to follow… but its price action is much more extreme. When investors hate gold, they loathe silver. And when they’re desperate for gold, they buy up silver even faster.

For example, in a little more than three years, from August 1976 to January 1980, gold soared 700% to $850 an ounce. But silver soared an incredible 1,100% over the same period. And the pattern has repeated for more than four decades. Silver has outperformed its more expensive cousin in each of the six bull markets of the past 40 years.

You can see this clearly in the silver-to-gold ratio. This indicator is simply a measure of how many ounces of silver you can buy with one ounce of gold. It’s a rough guide that shows how cheap or expensive one metal is relative to the other. When the ratio is low, gold is relatively cheap. When the ratio is high, silver is relatively cheap. Over the past 40 or so years, the ratio has averaged around 60:1… meaning you needed 60 ounces of silver to match the value of an ounce of gold.

Today, the ratio is 74:1. That means you need about 14 more ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold than you would have needed, on average, over the past 40 years. Like with most indicators, extremes in the silver-to-gold ratio present the best opportunities for us to profit.

For example, when both gold and silver sold off in 2008, the ratio jumped to more than 80:1. In other words, when people were selling gold, they were dumping their silver even faster. (The ratio hit as high as 83:1 again this past February.) Then, as both metals rallied, the ratio narrowed to just more than 30:1 in April 2011. People were bidding up silver even faster than gold. Gold climbed more than 160% during that period. But silver soared by more than double that – 359%. In both cases, silver crushed gold.

Silver outperforms gold in a bull market as investors pour in. But likewise, it underperforms gold dramatically in a bear market as investors dump silver faster than gold.

The ratio typically peaks around 80:1 when a bear market in precious metals is at its worst. The ratio has now dipped to about 74:1, which is why we believe we are in the early stages of the next bull market. That’s why we think silver is ready to explode again.

Silver’s moves tend to lag gold. So when gold makes a move, it sometimes takes a little time before silver follows. But when it does… it can skyrocket. During the first quarter of this year, gold climbed 16%. Silver was up, too, but only by 9%. So even though silver stocks soared along with gold stocks in the first quarter, the underlying metal still trailed gold.

Now, fast-forward to today.

Silver just picked up the pace. Through Friday’s close, silver is now up almost 30% versus gold’s 25% return. Both are great returns. But if history is any indication of where silver might be heading, it’s time to buy silver stocks again.

Since both metals last peaked in 2011, silver has lagged gold. In that span, gold is down about 30%, while silver has fallen 58%.

Recent data suggest that the ratio is starting to narrow… It’s another sign that the five-year bear market in gold and silver is over.

When silver takes off, it can soar. And silver stocks can soar even more. This powerful historical trend is coming around… and now is the perfect time to take advantage.

I highly respect the writer of the above. I think he is absolutely correct, and we are already poised to profit further with our particular silver mining stock picks!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Bull Market Still Intact

Gold… up! Silver… up! Mining shares… nearly all up! What’s going on? Stocks are really ripping back! The answer: It is believed that the central banks, in the light of “Brexit”, are going to lower rates still further, and print yet more money!!! That’s right! So, gold rose some, but silver rose a lot. I would expect volume to be average, but probably greater than average in those silver issues that had the better day today. Let’s see what the charts say… beyond the fact that the Bull is still completely intact!

We start with those that rose on better than average volume: SSRI, AG, MUX, FSM was on massive volume, SLW, ABX, PAAS, SLV on big volume, and GLD on totally average volume.

Others rose on less than average volume: CDE, PVG, HL, RIC, AUY, RGLD, SGDM and GDX.

Two declined: IAG and AKG on big volume. That’s not what we want to see.

We have new highs with: SSRI, CDE, PVG, MUX, FSM, HL, RIC, SLW, RGLD, SGDM, GDX and SLV.

I expected more volume than I actually found. In fact, the volume among all our holdings wasn’t even quite average. In any case, prices rose. Numerous new highs have been achieved. It’s clearly a bull market, and we are in it early still. There are many more to join this party going forward!

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It’s 6:45 am EST and gold’s off a couple of dollars, while silver is up 10 more cents. Something’s up with silver, and it may be nothing more than buyers are closing the huge ratio gap that has existed forever. If so, it’s a sign that more and more investors/traders are becoming aware of the Bull in metals. I’ll see if I can’t confirm that thought I have.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

NO DANGER!

As I mentioned yesterday, we watch and we wait, because the last sharp price surge needs to be digested with a consolidation or correction… and, that’s what we’re seeing. A quick look in on my trading account showed red and green, because while gold was off more than $12… silver was up a bit. I’m expecting only average volume at best, and that price support is still safe, for now.

I can see those that rose, and only on average volume, like: SSRI, AKG and PAAS.

There are decliners on light volume, as with: PVG, CDE, HL, RGLD, SGDM and AUY.

Others rose, but on light volume, like: AG, RIC, FSM and SLV.

And, decliners on average volume, with: MUX, ABX, SLW and GDX.

Don’t want to see losers on big volume, but we have that with: IAG and GLD.

What we have then, though GLD fell on pretty large volume, which would be a concern… yet, only one miner did the same. Everything else looks to truly confirm a Bullish picture, since volume was either light, or no more than average for everything else, plus, we had 7 rise, because silver did not fall as well. There appears to be NO DANGER at this time, and we can continue to watch and wait without fear.

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While gold is up this morning, 8:00 am EST, I’d say WATCH the silver miners! Silver is seriously up this morning!!! We’re likely to experience the next big move up in the miners today, if that silver price gain holds and/or increases further!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

We Pause, We Wait

Okay, so I already had an idea how this day was going to go. The metals were up considerably more overseas before our markets opened, and I had this gut feeling it wasn’t going to either rise further, or even hold… but, settle back some… even close a little higher. So, it did not surprise me in the least when I saw how high we already were this morning, and how that, from time-to-time, as I checked in, it was giving a lot back, only to close higher than the day’s lows… practically splitting the high and low right down the middle by the close.

I saw a lot of green around the open. Came back during the day, at one point, to see gold ahead only by $2.20, and all my miners in the red. We close up by $8.50, splitting the day.

So, metals pricing being as volatile as it was today, with buying, then selling off, then some buying again. With half closing in the green, and half showing loss, I would expect average to higher-than-average volume today, with price looking to commence to consolidate, or possibly correct, this latest advance begun Friday. To the charts!

I’ve got gainers on bigger than average volume in: MUX, PVG, CDE, RIC, ABX, SLW, HL, IAG and GLD.

Gainers on average volume: SGDM and GDX.

Losers on average volume: SSRI, AKG, FSM and RGLD.

Losers on higher volume: AG, AUY and PAAS.

Those that declined on light volume: SLV.

This can be read. Between the price candle on each chart, and the volume involved in the move. The Bullish case stands, and is even strengthened.

We have new highs today, as well, in: MUX, PVG, CDE, ABX, SLW, SGDM, GDX, HL, IAG and GLD.

Watch and wait… there IS more to come! I’m quite confident of that.

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Gold and silver have slipped back a rather large amount overnight. Stocks are up big time in Europe. Gold down 1.24%. Our stock futures up better than 1% in Europe. It’s 6:37 am EST.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Can You Believe THAT?!?!?

Well, we all know what happened. The Brits got out of the EU, and gold was a huge beneficiary by some $59.30. Silver gained $.48. I saw a lot of green in my trading account, and I would be shocked if volume wasn’t high. So, let’s go straight to the charts.

Those that rose, and the volume was big: SSRI, MUX, AKG, PVG, CDE, AG, FSM, ABX, IAG, RIC, RGLD, GDX, HL, PAAS, SGDM, SLW, AUY, SLV and GLD.

Now, GLD closed at a new high, and SLV is close to its previous high of 4/29. We do have new highs with SSRI, MUX, AKG, PVG, CDE, AG, IAG, RGLD, GDX, HL, SGDM,

But not yet with: FSM, ABX, RIC, PAAS, SLW, AUY or SLV.

Volume was 71% greater than average. We had a good price move of greater than 4.24% for an average among our stocks. We’re doing well. Is this the kick-off of another leg up? I don’t know. It was a bit surprising how much was given back during the day, and how far off the intra-day highs these all closed. That may weigh on them going forward, we’ll just have to wait and see next week.

I’ll try to write over the weekend, deciding if any should be sold, as underperforming, or not.

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Well, hey folks… I just looked in on gold as of 9:36 pm EST, and it was UP another $14.60!!!

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And, as of 6:32 am EST, gold’s still up by $12.20.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Pretty Amazing!

I know gold was off a bit today, and silver was up, but still… the miners are mostly up, though nearly half are down. It’s got to be a bullish development. I’d expect volume to be no better than average, but I’ll chart them all and have a look. I’d say support isn’t even threatened again today, too.

I start with those that rose, but it was on light volume, as: SSRI, MUX, AKG, HL, RIC, PAAS, RGLD, SLV

Then, those that were off, was also making their move on light volume, as: AG, PVG, FSM, ABX, AUY, SLW, GDX,

I’ve got one that rose on totally average volume, as: CDE,

Even a riser on big volume, like: IAG,

A decliner on really big volume: SGDM

GLD declined on average volume.

Move along, folks, there’s nothing to see here. It was one of those days that still makes for a bullish case in the metals and miners. I see lots of sideways consolidation, and ‘cups with handles’ among the miners. These are bullish charts patterns, so far!

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As of about 6:15 am EST…. gold was at $1,320 an oz.! Thank you, Britain!!! The likelihood is strong, since this will probably be a metals price breakout, that nearly all the miners will, too. If so, volume should be BIG!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

I See Green!

The metals declined ever so slightly today, both gold and silver lost .14%. However, a quick look in on my trading account showed a lot of green! This can only be viewed as another bullish case for the metals and miners.

I sold Kinross today, symbol KGC, for some 21% profit. It had become the least strong of my miners, and I felt I wanted to take the profit, and acquire either a different company, or more shares of some of my other holdings. Most are staying right at the top of the list for their relative strength in price movement.

The moves being generally as light as they were today, I would expect the volume to be less than average… was it?

First, I see these were up… on light volume, like: SSRI, AG, MUX, PVG, AKG, CDE, FSM, HL, AUY, ABX, PAAS, SLW, SGDM, GDX, SLV and GLD. It would appear the tiny decline in the metals prices either came after the market’s close, or were not reflected in the price of the ETFs, SLV and GLD.

Movers to the upside on big volume were: IAG,

There were decliners, on less than average volume in RIC and RGLD.

The charts are an appearance of health. There is still no threat to the bullish case to be made for what I’m looking at here. The longer prices consolidate and go sideways, the better the base from which the next rally will launch. I sold Kinross, but I won’t redeploy the proceeds just yet, and will post it here when I do.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

I See Red!

The metals were really set back some Tuesday. And, I saw a lot of red in my trading account. What will the charts say, and what was the volume like? Since the decline in price seemed a bit large, and everything went down, I would suppose that volume, across the board would have been greater than average; but that, I don’t think price support is yet in danger, and this is still within a correction/consolidation. So, to the charts…

Well, right up front, the first I see is a relatively small decline, and on light volume at that! As with: SSRI, AG, PVG, CDE, FSM, HL, RIC, AUY, RGLD, SLW, PAAS, SGDM, KGC and SLV.

And, there are decliners on merely average volume: AKG, MUX, ABX and GDX.

Now, volume was rather high in the decline of: IAG and GLD.

Okay, I’ve got to say it… I am greatly surprised that the overall volume involved with today’s decline in prices was so low! Second, while the average decline in price was 2%, the ‘candle’ on the chart is still well within the bounds of the consolidation pattern of the ‘cup-with-a-handle’ type chart pattern. Either of these points are bullish, but the 2 together is positively bullish. In other words, traders and investors saw the decline in metals prices today, as large as they seemed to have been, to have been NO threat whatsoever to the bullish outlook of an ongoing Bull Market in the metals and their mining shares. Not today anyway! They need some time to correct and consolidate, and they are taking that… when they are through, it is likely a new surge upward in price is what was should expect.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Clear as Mud

So, you’d expect that with a $20 rise on Friday, your miners would have had a great day. And, with the yellow metal off almost half of Friday’s gain today, it wouldn’t have been so good… Right? Never you mind. Nothing is as it would seem!

In any case, I looked at my account, and despite gold’s decline, most of my miners had a good day. Okay. So, let’s go straight to the charts, and forget about correlation between the metal and the miners… unless it was an options expiration thing only.

We can see gainers on relatively average volume with: AKG, SSRI, PVG, CDE, AG, SLW and RGLD.

Gainers on BIG volume, as with: MUX, IAG and SGDM.

And, gainers on light volume, as with: FSM, HL, AUY and SLV.

Losers on light volume: RIC, ABX, KGC and GDX.

And, losers on average volume: PAAS and GLD.

The tale they tell, above anything else, is that which I mentioned before. Support is holding. It’s not even being threatened, and beyond that, the cup with a handle pattern is being worked out with a great many of them… and, in nearly every instance, it can be said that stock price consolidation is going on, which is typically a bullish development in anticipation of the next price run-up. I think it’s out there. Stay with your mining stocks, They’re in a Bull Market!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell