How’s It Looking?

I’ve got 16 symbols that I track. All, but 2, closed down today. It appears that silver closed up, according to SLV, and one miner, HL, followed suit. All the remaining 14 closed lower. I’d only expect that volume was no better than average, possibly even less than average, as no strong metals price move took place today. Everything would appear to be gearing up for Friday, and what the metals market would be building up to, would appear to be a strong jobs report that would be negative for the metals.

My take would be that any negative news would be factored in, and if the report should be, shall we say, less than robust, a powerful relief rally could actually ensue.

So, my take would be to be a buyer Thursday, if the miners are weak, and take new positions during the day, before Friday morning’s jobs report. I wouldn’t bet the farm, or put my mortgage money on it, but I would be willing to place a reasonable bet that purchases made tomorrow, if the miners are weak again, would likely reward us well beyond what anyone else would expect… just because that’s what the markets always seem to do!

So, what do the charts have to say, if anything? First up, are those that fell on rather large volume, like: CDE, GLD, FSM, PVG, SSRI and ABX.

Others did so on average volume, like: SLW, RGLD, PAAS, SILJ, SGDJ, GDX and AG.

SGDM came down on light volume.

Our gainer, HL did so on average volume, while SLV did so on very light volume.

Average volume across all 16 was actually up 15% above the average for the past 50 days.

A lot of them are getting to levels of what should be very strong and critical support right here. They’ve mostly given up a lot! I’m hoping for more downside tomorrow, and if we get it, I’m going to step up and do some accumulating among these issues I’ve been listing every day. I’ll put it up right here, if and when I do, but it’s already been a rather painful correction for many, and if the timing indicators are saying anything, they’re saying it should be about to turn up. I’m willing to put some money where my mouth is, as the old saying goes.

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Thursday morning, at 6:42 am EST, and gold is down a bit more! New post to come later in the day, if our scenario should shape up….

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

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Are You Ready?

If the OEXpert 7 says anything, and the creator of it long ago said it works on gold, it is saying that our time is at hand. I haven’t used it long on gold, but in the very short time that I have, it has been accurate. It has 7 indicators. Price is at the first of its two lower trading bands, and that qualifies as a buy signal. F1 is at 12. It is under its lower trading band, and that is a signal. The signal is stronger if it gets to 10 or lower, and it easily could tomorrow. F2 is at -4, and that qualifies as a signal. It tends to be first, so it needs to be discounted somewhat. F3 is now at 15, and needs to get to 10. It could do that tomorrow, if the market cooperates. F4 has gotten to -2.6, and that is within spittin’ distance of a signal. Tomorrow could get us there. F5 has already signaled. It’s now at 32. It’s under 40, where the signal came on. F6 is once again at 0. It has nowhere else to go, and has signaled already, too.

Here’s the point. If tomorrow is a down day, there’s no need to wait until after the close, when positions cannot be taken before Friday’s open, to learn if all the indicators are in place. If Thursday is trading down, you can suppose the indicators would likely all be in place, and it would make very good sense to take some positions. Why is that?

It’s clear what is happening. The markets are setting up for bad news Friday morning. Everything I am looking at is saying that the markets are anticipating a very strong jobs report Friday morning. It would make perfect sense that we would get one… there’s a big election just 2 months away, and govt. wants every report to sound sweet! However, another principle about markets is that they rarely meet expectations, and they most often dash the hopes of the most participants. Therefore, I’m saying that it would not surprise me in the least if the report actually stunk, and we were to get a huge relief rally Friday, because it would make the probability of an interest rate hike to dissipate. Markets would absolutely love that, but that is not at all what it is anticipating. It’s been setting up for a very strong jobs report that would increase the likelihood of a rate increase… and, has factored that in pretty much already.

If you’re a gambler, and if tomorrow plays our way, with prices off, and the metals markets down… I’d be a buyer, and add some shares of my favorite miners. If the scenario I laid out should actually happen, we’ll all look like genius’, of course, and, if not, don’t bet the farm, or your mortgage money, as the report might still be strong, and there might still be a further negative reaction to it. But, in any case, a negative Thursday would be a great signal to me, to add some mining shares in anticipation of a rally to commence Friday… maybe! In any case… if tomorrow is down, I’m going to be a buyer!

More later….

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Gettin’ Psyched!

I’m a sick puppy. I love it when markets start to feel pain. That’s when I begin to sit-up, put my shopping list together, and get ready to push the Buy button. The metals declined, the miners got hit pretty hard. Some support levels were broken, and I’m hoping that downside volume picked up to at least average volume or better. If it did, then the time should be getting close at hand. So, charts… talk to me, what do you have to say?

So, we’ve got decliners on big volume. That’s what I see with: CDE, SILJ, RGLD, SGDJ, GDX and SSRI.

Others have fallen on average volume. See: SLW, FSM, HL, PAAS, PVG, ABX and AG.

Then, there were those fell only on light volume: GLD, SLV and SGDM.

Hmmmm, it wasn’t ‘bloody’ enough for me. Average volume for all 16 issues did increase, but only by 26%. It would have been nicer, had it expanded by 50%, or more. In any case, I must update the timer, and see what it has to say!

It is saying that we really need to start to give consideration as to what, and how much, we might want to be a buyer of! Price has made contact with its first of two lower trading bands. That’s one signal in favor. F1, at 19, has signaled. It will be better if it gets to 10 or lower. Another day or 2 could do that. F2 has cleared -4, and it has signaled. F3 is at 21 and falling fast. It, too, needs to get to 10 to signal, so another 1 or 2 days could make that happen. F4 is at a -2.4, and could use at least one more day to reach its signaling place. F5, now at 38, has just signaled! Finally, F6 has just hit the floor at 0. It has just now signaled.

So, marginally, price is there. F1 has marginally made it as well, as it just got under its lower trading band, but I’d like to see 10 or lower. F2 is there, but it’s usually first, so I can’t put much stock in it. F3 could use another day or 2. F4 could use just 1 more day. F5 is in the bag, as is F6. Friends, be ready. If you should note a turning in price, on volume… tomorrow, Thursday, or Friday; I should think we would want to be getting on board that train, as I believe it might try to pull out of the station very soon! Some more downside, on even bigger volume… especially if it were to qualify as panic selling, would be absolutely ideal! Is that too much to hope for? My hope is that it is not. So, here’s to a panic sell-off! 😉

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Wednesday morning, and almost 8:30 am EST. The metals are up a bit overseas. Let’s hope that doesn’t last. It would be a beautiful thing if it would fall back some more. We don’t often get our way, though…………

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

It’s About Timing!

I’ve just updated the OEXpert 7 Market Timing program. It’s from 1992, and is DOS based. The last Microsoft operating system to support it was XP. I have one dedicated XP laptop. It’s at least 6, if not 8, years old on which I run the timer.

I just updated the timer with Monday’s closing data, and here is where the 7 different indicators stand.

The first is price, and where it falls within its upper and lower trading bands, as defined by the program. Price is close to, but has not yet come down to touch, its lower trading bands. It’s close, but not there yet.

F1. This indicator is at 25, and falling, but needs to get to at least below 20, at this time; and best when it gets down to 10, or lower. It could signal as soon as today, and almost certainly would in just 2 or 3 more days, if we don’t lift-off first.

F2. This one is at 3.5, and needs to get to 4, or lower. It has almost gotten there with Friday’s close, and could with today’s, if it closes lower.

F3. This indicator is plunging. It’s now at 28, and needs to get to 10 or lower. just another couple or 3 days would certainly get it there, if we don’t turn upward beforehand.

F4. This indicator signals at a reading of -4, and it’s at -2 right now, and rising, but with just a couple or 3 more days, this one, too, could get to -4 or lower and signal.

F5. The F5 indicator signals when it gets down to 40, or lower. With Monday’s close, it’s reading 45, and could actually signal after today’s close, should we close lower. If it doesn’t, I would think that just 1 more day could get it there.

Finally, F6. This indicator is at 2. It is signaling now.

What do I make of all this? Simple. I am of a pretty firm belief that we need to be getting ready to step back into the gold and silver mining stocks. I believe that they will be bottoming shortly, and that it will likely be at prices a few % lower than at present.

If this scenario should play out, just as I am hoping, we are going to have a tremendous opportunity to load up on gold and silver mining stocks, and to be in place to profit enormously as the risk is wrung out, and the prices turn up.

Will we identify it? Will we get in in a timely manner? Will we be able to load up and go for the ride? It’s looking that way… so far! We can never be sure, but we do all that we can to tilt the odds more in our favor. And, if the OEXpert Timer is any good at the timing of gold price… then, we are going to continue to do just fine!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Was That It?

Have been looking everywhere to try to determine if we are at actual support, and we turn up from here. My personal view is that we are not, and it has not. I believe there’s some more downside to go… but, of course, I could be wrong. That’s the problem with predicting… especially the future. It can be so hard!

So, everything was up yesterday; silver more than gold, but, as it is now Tuesday morning, I see the metals are off overseas. Which is what I truly want to see, as I want to get a good low-risk market entry signal, that I may confidently load up, and recommend you consider doing the same. So, will my own charts help me out here???

First, when the real turn takes place, volume will likely swell… so, I’m looking at those gainers on Monday, but on light volume, such as: CDE, SILJ, FSM, SLW, RGLD, HL, SGDJ, PAAS, SSRI, PVG, SGDM, SLV, GLD, GDX, ABX and AG.

Well, whatayaknow? All 16 were up, and all 16 did so on light volume! The average volume for all of them was off by 29% below the 50-day average volume. This helps me to believe that we may yet still see some more downside, and that, hopefully, we’ll get a solid signal, so as to be able to confidently and aggressively step-up to the plate!

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Looking in, as of 10:26 am EST, and the metals are down, as well as the miners. We may well be getting to that place where we want to be. May it come soon!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Startin’ to Get Excited!

It’s early yet, but here it is, Sunday evening. The metals markets are open overseas, and gold and silver are off some. We should really want for this to trail off some more… at least enough for considerable pessimism to set in, for prices to drop just another % or 2, and for all our timing indicators to signal that risk has been wrung out. It’s been good to catch market bottoms before, and my hope is that we can do it again.

So, here’s to the precious metals markets, and the OEXpert 7 Market Timer… May it signal to us a tradable low-risk market entry opportunity. I’ll check back in on the metals trading overseas Monday morning.

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It’s Monday morning, 6:35 am EST, and the metals are still off a bit. That’s a good sign. May they continue to do so for just a couple or three more days!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

This So Rarely Happens

What? What so rarely happens? That we get our way with the market… The Thursday bounce, and the Friday morning lift… it was all for naught! The Fed speak that came out today was not conducive to the higher prices the early speculators were looking for, and so, the metals and miners sold off! We got our wish, and we got our way!!! So, I would expect volume to be right around the average, hopefully not less, and maybe, if we got really lucky, a little more! I’ll explain before I finish… first, to the charts.

I have 5 that rose, these on big volume: CDE, FSM and SLV.

These rose on average volume: SILJ and RGLD.

But, we’re really interested in those that fell, especially on big volume, like: SLW, SSRI, HL, PVG, SGDJ, PAAS, GLD, GDX, ABX and AG.

We did get one to fall on light volume, too: SGDM.

And, the average volume for all 16 symbols… O, yeh! It was up a tremendous 53% over the 50-day average of volume… just what we wanted. Folks are getting flushed out!

Here’s what this means; the metals market is now likely to take a little while to get sorted out. Hopefully, just long enough for us to get the signal we’re looking for! Just a couple more days, especially with a bit more downside price action, and the timer will signal a low-risk entry opportunity. I expect we might catch one next week!

Be patient, but get ready!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Bump? Bounce? Or, What?

A look in on the metals indicates they did absolutely nothing today. Gold’s off $2, and silver was flat. So, there was NO bounce in the metals. A look in on my trading account shows considerable green, while some bounced a good bit, and others barely moved… with one or two even closing lower. That’s not what a true bounce in the miners should look like. I’m going to suspect volume lightened up considerably. Had it been any kind of a serious bounce, I would think that volume would have expanded. But, until I read the charts, I’m speculating, which I always do first, then confirm or deny it by the charts. What will they say?

I’ve got gainers on average volume, as with: CDE, SSRI, SGDM, GDX and ABX.

Gainers on big volume, like in: SLW, SILJ, HL, FSM, PVG, PAAS, SGDJ and AG.

There’s losers on light volume with RGLD and GLD.

SLV gained on very light volume.

Well, I’ve got to say, I am just a bit flummoxed. Why? I redrew brand new support lines Wednesday, after the smash, and nearly every issue declined intra-day today, and touched my support lines before they turned back upward. I was nowhere to be found to watch that, and to try to accumulate some shares at that point. Wouldn’t that have been sweet?!?!? O, well….

Average volume for all was 4% below the average, and well below Wednesday sell-off volume.

I’ll update the timer, and see if it has anything to add.

Friday’s supposed to be the big day. If the Fed comes out with dovish words concerning another rate hike, the metals will likely move higher, and today’s miner rebound was based upon those speculating that is what will happen, and want to be in beforehand. If, however, on the other hand, the Fed should sound hawkish like they’ll raise rates any time soon, look for the metals to settle back further, and for the miners to get hurt worse… at which point in time, were that to happen, I would want to step up and become a buyer. More later….

Okay, I’ve updated the timer. I’m going to have to say that it is NOT signaling here, and that it would require more time and downside on the price to get there. I want more downside. I want to see price, and the 6 indicators all get to their respective low-risk entry signaling places, where I can confidently say… It is time to step up and be a buyer. Will tomorrow’s Fed release give us that opportunity? O, we can only hope so!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

So, What Does the Timer Say?

I have a dedicated laptop that runs the MS XP operating system. And, I have the 1992 OEXpert 7 Market Timing Program running on it exclusively. It has been so good to call gold market bottoms, since the Bull Market in metals began earlier this year, that I should report on what it’s saying now.

First, it called a bottom in gold in 1.) late March/early April, 2.) end of May/first part of June, and 3.) again in the latter part of June.

Here it is, getting close to possibly signaling again. Where are the indicators right now?

As of the close of yesterday, Wednesday the 24th, the 7 indicators are as follows: The price of gold, as represented by the ETF, GLD, is between its trading bands in the program. The trading bands are moving up, as they are a function of moving averages of the price, and right now, the price has been moving down. It really needs to sell-off further into at least a price of $125 in order to signal in regard to the trading bands.

Then, there are 6 ‘black box’ F keys, 1 thru 6, that bring up different proprietary indicators that only this program has.

F1 is at 26 and falling, and it is close to giving a low-risk signal. It could do so in as little as 2 more days, I would think.

F2 looks to be at -3, and may already be signaling, but F2 has almost always been first and early, so I see that as an attention-getting signal saying the bottom may likely be getting close.

F3 is at 48 and falling, but, it needs to get back down to 10, and has a way to go. It’s slow, and I don’t necessarily need to wait for this one to signal.

F4 is at a -2.5, and I think it is very close, and could give a signal as early as 1 or 2 more days.

F5 is now at a reading of 66. It appears to be falling fast, and needs to get to 40 or lower to signal. I see this indicator getting there in at least 2 more days.

Finally, there is the F6 indicator. It’s also dropping like a rock, and needs to get to at least 18 on its scale at this time, and much more preferably to 10 or lower. It’s reading 31 at this time, and could also signal in as few as 2 more days.

I’ve owned this program for 24 years. I know it well. Almost no one in all the rest of the world has an operating copy of it, besides me. It is approaching a place where it may give a low-risk market entry opportunity signal. This signal could be generated by the program in as little as 2 more days.

What we need to understand is simply this: Supposedly what the metals market is now working and waiting on is the statement out of the Fed on Friday. That statement is said to certainly move the metals market.

If the Fed statement should result in the metals taking off again… it will do so before the program can signal. If the Fed statement should tank the metals market further, it will only work to create an oversold situation in which we could step up and be buyers, as sellers are dumping their shares.

My hope would be this… that the Fed releases some aggressive talk that hurts the metals market, and gives us every opportunity to begin to accumulate more shares, while others are getting spooked and throwing theirs away. That would only be opportunity, not death, to the Bull Market in metals.

I rarely get my way, but I will report precisely what comes of it all, and act accordingly.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Metals NOT Bouncing, Miners Are!

It’s 11:45 am EST and I see that the metals are flat. They’re not bouncing in price, but… the miners certainly are! This would indicate that yesterday’s selling was likely overdone,… BUT, if the metals don’t move back up, the miners will almost certainly get sold off some more in the near future, as others take advantage of a little price break due to the bounce.

I’ll update the timer, as I get data each day, and if it can get its indicators into a nice place, where the timer is saying that risk would appear to be all wrung out… I’m going to step up and become an aggressive buyer then!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell