Let’s talk about price support. I’ve 15 symbols I’m following, and with the most recent low now in around last Wednesday and Thursday… and, since we did some new buying around that point Thursday morning, we need to note these new support levels, and use them as our new stops for our trading purposes. And, if we should fall back some next week, these need to hold, and we may make use of them to add more shares, should we be so fortunate. So, here goes. Do you have charting capability? Can you use candlestick charts. Have you tried free charting to be found at stockcharts.com and/or investors.com. At the IBD site you need to find Research in the tool bar. As you hover over that with your cursor, a dropbox will fall down, and you can click on IBD Charts, and viola!

CDE finds support at about $12.25. It needs to punch through $14, so as to not form a head & shoulders topping pattern. $14.25 is resistance.

SLW found support at $24.75. It doesn’t look like there would be a similar head and shoulder danger, but a punch thru $29.50 would be nice, so as to not create that pattern.

FSM never filled its 6/30 – 7/1 gap, and looks like it’s not going to. Its support is at $7.25. It also needs to get thru $9 in order to avoid making an H&S top.

Support for SILJ is at $15. It needs to broach $17.62 in order to avoid forming its own H&S top.

PAAS got footing at $17.17, and so it doesn’t form an H&S top, it needs to hurdle the $20.31 mark.

HL hovered in the $5.30’s and $5.40’s to build support. It would be great if it would get over $6.73, and its left shoulder.

PVG is different. Support is right in the area of $9.35, but it’s already made a double-top at $12 and a quarter. It needs to bust thru all of that overhead those 2 tops represent.

SGDJ. The fund found its support at $38.26, and it’s got a left shoulder resistance price to overcome above $47, with more resistance at its top, too, at $49.

RGLD has support at $71.67. Left shoulder resistance can be seen above $83.50.

SLV. Silver has put in a strong level of support for about 7 trading days in a row. That’s pretty impressive. It makes for a real ‘line in the sand’ at $17.60. But, as with most of the others, in order to not form a dreaded head & shoulders top, it would be awfully nice to see price exceed $19.45 in the near future.

SGDM has a ways to go. Finding legs at $23, it needs to exceed all of $29 just to show adequate health and strength.

GLD. Hmmm, never caught this before. It topped in early July, bottomed in late July; attained a lower top in early August, and then, a lower top again on the 18th, and  just here last Thursday… that’s a lower low! Not certain how significant this read is, but it really needs to hurdle the mid-August high first, and then go on to challenge the early August high, or it’s going to be signaling some pretty ugly further corrective price action in the relatively near future. I need to be paying closer attention to this!

SSRI has some work to do, as well. Finding support last week at $11.50-55, it needs to run past $14.90 to demonstrate real strength.

GDX, the mining ETF, got to a recent low of $25.17 and found its support. To blow past $30.75 would be the kind of feat it would need to perform, so as to go on to challenge its previous high.

Finally, ABX. I keep the symbol, as it is a great proxy for the entire sector. And, fascinatingly enough, it looks just like GLD, and is actually flashing the similar danger of lower highs, and lower lows since 7/6.

“Houston, we have a problem!” Friends, the technical picture is not one of perfect health here. Volume and price need to pick up the pace considerably from this point. We’ve had a reversal day on Thursday, and some tepid follow-through on Friday, but unless there is much more stronger follow-through within the next week or so, the metals are likely to fall back some more!

My antenna is up. I’m going to continue to track this daily, but I’m not as sanguine now, as I was before I commenced to write this post. We are being warned, and we need to be cautious. Perhaps, cautiously optimistic is the better term! Agreed?

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell


6 thoughts on “Worth Talking About

  1. THANKS! Knowing stops is important. You have saved me from doing it today. I also have to run stops for a few you are not following, such as OR, KGI, GSV, EXK, FFGMF and BTG.

    SLW, HL, CDE, AUY, PAAS, all are getting ready to swing to an uptrend (likely Tuesday) and when it does, will be going forward with 1 day, 2 day and 3 day trends all UP! GG, SSRI, GLD, GDX, are a day or two away from new up trend.

    SLV is already in an new uptrend and looks great for the new few days. ABX is more or less like GLD, but more wishy-washy. I cannot track all of the miners this way, but those I can, I have.

    BTW, I see SLW needing to break about $28.3 to the topside and it is predicted to hit 28.20 Tuesday. If it overshoots that, the sky could be the limit, especially given that SLV already moved into an new uptrend. All silver miners to some extend could benefit (some more than others obviously).

    I plan to add P3 comments later.



  2. Haven’t finished my P3 analysis nor all my stops on other stocks. Where I ran support for those you posted, I got basically the same numbers. I think the support numbers are better than the usual 15, 25 or 50% trailing stops some of the newsletters use. Those are just general guidelines without looking at the charts for a realistic stop/support.


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