Okay… the metals got hit. The miners got squashed. Is the party over already? Has the bull been gored, and is this market dead??? Well, we need to go to the charts. We need to look at the levels of price support. We need to know if support held, or was broken. And, we need to know if volume was huge, or rather tepid. Since I only know the questions, but none of the answers, we need to go to the charts. What I do know is that my miners got clocked, and the metals were hit a bit, but nothing huge or catastrophic, so, let’s see what happened today, one issue at a time.
First of all, they all declined in value. I have nothing on the upside… okay? So, the issue is volume, and here we go…
Those that fell, but only on average volume, were: SLW, SILJ, SSRI and AG.
But, others declined on big volume, like: PVG, FSM, CDE, PAAS, HL and GDX.
Still others only fell on light volume: RGLD, SGDJ, GLD, SLV, SGDM and ABX.
The average volume for all 16 symbols was up, but only by 18%, which is not terribly significant. What is significant is that 3 of our issues, CDE, PAAS and HL, all got down to price support levels… and all 3 held! None broke support.
The timer signal of late is still in force. The low-risk entry signal it previously gave is still good. It may even reset soon, if prices should continue to languish. What is at issue is obvious. The fear of rising interest rates is pushing yields higher, and causing the US dollar to strengthen. The result is a decline in all commodity prices. The idea that our central bank could safely raise rates without pushing our economy over the edge is laughable. They know nothing. A look anywhere in the world says it would be one very dumb move. But, don’t put it past the Fed. We’ll know soon enough. My guess is that they won’t, and everything will rally once again.
Wednesday morning, 9:40+am EST. Market’s been open 10 minutes, and our miners are up. They need to be, as they had pretty much gotten to where their risk had been wrung out. This ought to be a buyable point, but I’m not as certain as I would like to be simply because the Fed-speak really messed things up, and got everyone off their game… including me. Buy here, keep very tight stops, and if they should get violated… get out! A better opportunity would arise later. It’s called trading! If you’re comfortable with the quantity you have, just sit tight for now.
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell