As I Was Saying…

If the metals go up, and the miners go down… don’t worry; the miners will go up. Today they did.

The metals rose some today, and the miners had a very fine day. I’m going to suggest that volume rose today, even if it didn’t attain unto the 50-day average volume. Let’s see just what did happen…

Let’s note gainers on light volume, as with: GLD, SLV, HL, GDX, PVG, SGDJ, ABX, RGLD, SGDM, SLW, SILJ, FSM, SSRI, CDE and AG.

This rose on average volume: PAAS.

So price movement was all positive, but volume wasn’t great. Average volume was 24% below the 50-day average on all of them. That makes for another very quiet day within the basing pattern… again.

It’s all looking good… it’s still a bull market. We’re still in a correction, which has now become a consolidation.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell


Monday A.M.

Just looking like more of the very same… Gold’s off fractionally, and silver’s up a bit. It may well be just more backing and filling, and more importantly… Base-building in the share price charts of our miners.

Do not forget… That’s actually GOOD!

The longer the base, the better the ensuing rally, when it should finally come!


Week Over…

Friday’s done. The metals did well, but the miners were mixed. Like Thursday, what was this all about?!?!? I’m sure I don’t know. But we’ll go to the charts and try to figure it out. In any case… metals can rise all they want, the miners will have to follow at some point, so I’m not yet concerned in the least. So, charts… what do you have to say for yourselves?

We begin with anything that gained, and did so on greater than average volume, as with: GLD.

Gainers on average volume, as with: SLV and ABX.

But other gainers did so on light volume: HL, GDX, PVG, SGDM, SLW, SSRI and AG.

Then, there are the strange decliners on a day when the metals were up, but on light volume: SGDJ, RGLD, SILJ, FSM and CDE.

This one declined on average volume: PAAS.

Wow, it makes little sense. The metals were up, and not by a small amount either. We had 6 to fall, while 10 rose. Volume appeared to be about all over the place. The average volume for all of them was down by 20%, so there was no real conviction behind anything, I suppose.

Price support is still in place and holding… We continue to watch and wait. Should metals prices continue to rise, the miners will certainly follow!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell


This JUST came in, and totally supports my present case and belief about what’s happening here.

“Wow. I can’t believe the sea change that has happened in gold in the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, my headline… was “Gold Isn’t a Buy Yet… But it’s Close.” That day, I said: “Personally, I look forward to getting back into gold and gold stocks with my own money. They have fallen, a lot, and I believe we’re at the early stages of a major long-term bull market in gold stocks. But even after such a fall, and even with my long-term outlook, I personally can’t get excited just yet. Unfortunately, gold is still loved. And, it’s still in a downtrend.” My, what a difference a couple of weeks makes…
Today, large investors are bailing out of gold – at a frenzied pace. Meanwhile, the bleeding might have stopped in the price of gold. It’s hard to call it an “uptrend” right now. But, gold has moved sideways for weeks. The downtrend might be nearing its end. And it’s not just gold. We’ve seen similar extreme moves by big traders in other precious metals as well.

So the big question is: What do we do now? Is this moment a buying opportunity for gold and precious metals? Personally, I’m still not buying just yet. I want to see even more large investors get out. And I want to see more of an uptrend in prices. I want to be clear here: The story for gold and precious metals has improved dramatically in the last two to three weeks. The change has been more dramatic than we’ve seen in a long time. Now is a much better time to enter gold or precious metals than it was two or three weeks ago. But it’s still not “optimal” – yet.

Summing up, investors have massively changed their opinions on gold and other precious metals in just the last couple weeks. And big investors have started to throw in the towel. I didn’t think it would happen this quickly, or to this degree. But it’s true. Gold is quickly moving from “loved” toward “hated” again. I love to see this… This makes gold and other precious metals much more attractive than they were just a couple weeks ago. The “red light” in gold has changed to yellow… We’re just not all the way to green, yet. I’ll let you know when we get there.”

I have my own timing tools working, and they say the same thing… it would appear that a real opportunity is getting close, and may result in another rally soon.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Bull? Bear? Dog?

Olddog writes, “My definition of a bull is a market making higher highs and higher lows. This market hasn’t done that for 3 months. All the issues you are following are down at least 10%, some over 50%(AG). What will it take to be considered a bear?” That’s a most excellent question, and one which should be answered for everyone.

I responded to Olddog as follows, “A bull market, despite the many different ways folks try to describe one, goes like this, to my way of thinking. It revolves around the standard Wall Street 50-day and 200-day moving averages. 1.) Price will rise thru a down-trending 50-day, 2.) the 50-day will turn up, 3.) Price will go up thru its down-trending 200-day, 4.) The 50-day will pierce the down-trending 200-day, making the “Golden Cross,” , 5.) the 200-day will then turn up, 6.) the 200-day will then begin to act as strong support, though it may be sometimes be pierced temporarily.

Right now, 1.) price has fallen thru its 50-day, 2.) the 50-day has turned down, but, price has not pierced the 200-day, the 50-day has not fallen thru the 200-day in a “death cross,” the 200-day has not rolled over to go down… and, most importantly, to my case, the 200-day is acting as good price support… hence, I see a correction, now consolidating and basing around the 200-day moving average.” There are other ways that other people delineate between a bull and a bear market, but this has been my definition for years. And, see the price chart for gold around last December and January for the Bull turn upward, and the 6 points I made about it.

The price of GLD advanced thru its 50-day on 1/6. The 50-day turned up by the end of January. The price then proceeded to pierce its 200-day on 2/3. The 200-day then began to turn upward after the middle of February; and the 50-day pierced the 200-day on 3/1. Since then, the 200-day has been acting as price support, as of 10/6, and price is walking right up that slightly up-trending 200-day all month long. As a result of my particular analysis, I still believe that we are dealing with a bull market.

It’s Friday morning, and the metals are just about dead, flat even, for next to no change. The consolidation and basing would appear to continue… the longer it gets, and the more people sell out, having lost all interest, the better for us!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

What’s This About?

Chris writes me during the day to bring my attention to the share prices. I checked the metals prices first, and then the share prices… and, as he was asking me… I was also wondering… What’s this about?

Maybe you saw it, too? The metals prices did just fine. They barely moved. But, the miners didn’t fare too very well at all. We’ve seen this before, and it didn’t mean anything then, but we need to go to the charts for their story.

Now, GLD rose a bit, on very light volume. SLV did, too. As did ABX and CDE.

But, our other miners, like I said, they didn’t fare as well. Declining on light volume, we have: HL, SGDJ, PVG, GDX, RGLD, SGDM, SLW, SILJ, FSM and SSRI.

PAAS fell on average volume, and is approaching its level of support. AG is now at its previous level of support, and it’s been a long-standing target of a Canadian short-selling firm, which is wanting to kill it, if they can.

Average volume for all was 29% below the 50-day average… very light.

What to make of it all? It’s this: Worst case scenario, the second base is slipping away, and may be falling into its previous first base, but the level of price support established back on 10/6+7 is strong, and I would surely hope that it would hold.

It’s a bull market, until it isn’t… and, right now, it’s still in a corrective, and now, consolidative phase. We just continue to watch and to wait.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Down Yesterday, Up Thursday?

Just looking in on overseas metals trading, and the precious metals prices are up… still backing, and now filling again?

We were down Wednesday, but it’s looking like, as of 6:15 am EST, that we want to go up Thursday.

I can be a very patient man………….


Backing and Filling?

We look to be up one day, and down the next. Last I looked, it was a base on base. Did Wednesday only undo Tuesday? I don’t know for sure, but the charts never lie. I wonder if volume rose any?

Well, those that fell on light volume today were: GLD, SLV, SGDJ, HL, PVG, RGLD, SLW, ABX, SGDM, FSM, SILJ, PAAS, SSRI, CDE and AG.

These fell on average volume: GDX.

Nailed it! Volume was 20% off of the 50-day average, and the pattern is still a base on base. The first base was 2 weeks long, and this second base is now 6 trading days long. It’s still bullish… just boring!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

It Was a Happy Day!

The metals had a nice day. The miners did, too! Looks like everything was in the green. I’m going to guess that volume rose, and that it may have even approached the 50-day average, which it has been below for quite some time now. Let’s see if the charts confirm or deny.

Well, these rose, but on light volume: GLD, SGDJ, SLV, HL, GDX, PVG, RGLD, SGDM, SILJ, SLW, PAAS, FSM, SSRI, CDE and AG.

One gainer on big volume: ABX.

I blew that call. Volume was quite small, in fact, it was 18% off of the 50-day average. There was no great conviction accompanying today’s move. There is a clear chart pattern forming however, and it is a bullish one. It’s called a base upon a base. Prices based for about 2 weeks, as I had previously been saying, then more recently here, it rose just over 1 week ago, and has been basing once again, at this new, slightly higher price level. The longer this base drags out, as I said before, the better it will be. We’ll continue to hold, and to watch and wait.

All this market needs is some kind of catalyst to kick it off. It wants one, and is looking for one. And, if it should do anything different, we’ll call it right here!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Metals Barely Moved; Miners Didn’t Like It

Hey, I don’t know. It’s clear though… the metals hardly moved, but the miners took a hit. What’s with that?

We need to examine the charts to see if there was any volume conviction behind the selling off of the mining shares. It shouldn’t happen when the metals hardly move… so, let’s take a look. Charts… talk to me!

I start with anything that declined, but on light volume, as with: GLD, GDX, PVG, HL, PAAS, SLW, RGLD, SGDM, SILJ, ABX, SSRI, CDE and AG.

There were gainers, on light volume, as with: SLV and FSM.

Stuff that fell on average volume was: SGDJ…

So, what we have was a down day on 23% lighter volume than the 50-day average for all. In other words, this is more of that backing-and-filling type corrective base-making action still. Traders are dying out there for something to happen, and they’re slowing getting away from this market… and, it is being lulled to sleep.

As long as nothing happens, and the metals’ prices and miners continue to do essentially nothing, the longer and stronger the ultimate base that results. We can only hope that at some point, out in the relatively near future, some tremendous event and piece of news kicks off this market as a catalyst, and makes it launch once again. In the mean time, we continue to watch and wait.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell