O, the Pain of It All!

Yes, I see that the metals had a tough day, and that the miners declined, but it still doesn’t look like they have been killed. Until I study the charts, I don’t know whether they are still holding the Monday 11/14 support, or not. So, let’s take a look!

We start with decliners on light volume, as with: PAAS, RGLD, SLV, SILJ, AG, GDX, SSRI, CDE, FSM and SLW.

As well as those that fell on average volume, as with: PVG, SGDM.

And, others on big volume, as with: HL, ABX, SGDJ.

Average volume for all 16 was only 5% below the 50-day moving average.

GLD has now broken the 2/5 support level I had been writing of… yikes!

Now, get this! Though gold has fallen further, and even whatever support the closing of the 2/5 gap may have been, that has now been broken… BUT, none of the miners, and I mean none of them, have even fallen through the Monday 11/14 support level they have established. This is truly a phenomenon! And, it is a bullish sign. Hang in there… wait. Unless the miners fall out of bed, they are saying that the metal’s decline is not yet meaningful, and they have not lost hope!

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Amazingly, as of 9:13 pm EST, the metals are lower still overseas… I don’t know how the miners can stand up under it. Let’s see what Thursday will bring, but I fear the miners will have to break, if the metals don’t reverse very soon!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

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Contemplating

Gold closed down. Silver closed up. In the overseas markets, the metals are up slightly as of 6:55 pm EST. And, the miners? Mostly up. Only a couple closed lower. It looks like a bullish development shaping up at this time. Let’s check all the charts.

Shall we start with gainers on light volume? See: PAAS, RGLD, ABX, SLV, SILJ, CDE, SSRI, AG, FSM.

And, gainers on big volume: HL, PVG.

We’ve decliners on average volume in: SGDM.

While gold itself, as GLD, declined on light volume, and is holding at the 2/5 support level I identified when price closed that gap between 2/5 and 2/8. As did GDX, SGDJ and SLW also decline on light volume Tuesday.

So, we clearly have this situation where the metals had broken their support level back on 11/23, while the miners did not follow suit. That was a very significant, and bullish, development. Everything had developed the same basing pattern, prior to the 23rd, but only the metals, themselves, fell through support… none of the miners did, and that support held, and has held since first established back on Monday, 11/14.

Average volume for Tuesday had declined by 30%, and indicates it was no ‘high conviction’ day. When we get one, either up, or down, volume will expand greatly, and that is what we are waiting for. We have a bullish set-up, and we are awaiting whatever news catalyst will cause that move with conviction and volume. The greater odds is that it will be to the upside, with this present set-up.

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Now, as of Wed. morning, at 7:21 am EST, we have a similar situation, where gold is off a bit, and silver is up slightly. It’s shaping up to be another do-nothing sort of a day.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Going Back Down?

The precious metals are off overseas overnight, but not by as much as they had risen Monday. The Monday 11/14 support has held for the miners, and there’s a 2/5 gap that was filled, and then became support, for gold. I had said that would be a bullish development, and miners will lead to the downside in a truly bearish market environment. But, instead, they’ve been holding up considerably better. We can’t count metals out yet.

Harold

Monday’s Over…

It was a pretty good day! Gold rose well, silver had a fine outing. Prices did well. The miners had a fine day, too. Was there a bunch of volume to demonstrate any real commitment behind the move? Is this going to be the beginning of anything big??? The charts know…

So, let’s start with ideas that rose well and on bigger than average volume, like: HL, SGDM and GDX.

These others rose, too, but on light volume: PAAS, GLD, RGLD, SLV, ABX, SGDJ, PVG, SSRI, SILJ, FSM, CDE, AG and SLW.

Well, it’s easy to see that volume was light for most, but the actual average volume for all was right on the 50-day average. There was nothing special about the day… it was just healthy. Maybe something will still come of this… we’ll just have to wait and see.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Something’s Definitely Happening!

I said… The metals have been getting whacked, but the miners were holding up far better! Well, here it is, Sunday evening about 8:52 pm EST, and the metals are having a good outing overseas. Let’s see what they look like come Monday morning. I knew it was getting interesting, but did not know what it could mean… perhaps the next rally will finally commence???

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Monday morning, 6:54 am EST and the metals are up… silver by not an inconsequential amount, too. Gold tempered its rise a bit, but still up more than $6. Let’s see what the day will bring.

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Looking at the revised bids this morning on my miners, before the open, I see that they are going to open up strong. The miners appear to be catching a bid at the open, as of 9:14 am EST. May it be a good day!

Harold

Black Friday Wrap-Up

It’s been strange. The metals closed the day relatively unchanged. Silver managed to do better than gold. The miners were mixed, with some up, and others down. So, I suppose the support for metals remains broken, while the same for the miners we track are still all intact! That was bullish then, and if that’s what we find again this Friday evening… it would still be bullish now. Support exists where miner prices were lowest on Monday the 14th.

Gainers on light volume: HL, RGLD, SGDM, ABX, GDX, SILJ, CDE and AG.

Decliners on light volume: PAAS, PVG, SSRI, SGDJ, FSM and SLW.

Meanwhile, gold closed down a bit, and is not only in violation of support, but is now at what would be considered the ‘next’ support level of 2/5, a price from which it had gapped up from… having just now closed that gap. This becomes a potential support level for gold. Friday’s decline however was on very light volume.

Silver rose today… on very light volume.

The total volume for all was 53% lighter than the 50-day average. As I closed Wednesday… the miners don’t fare better than the metals to the downside, if it’s truly bearish… they do worse! This is not what is happening. The miners are holding up considerably better than the gold and silver prices, and despite the length and depth of this correction in prices… the present price action in the miners, in relation to the metals themselves, is actually a very big positive.

Just for yucks, I put a Fibonacci chart up on the average of all 16 symbols, from the low of 1/20 to the top on 8/11… and, the 23.6% level was the first support area broken on 10/4, which was tested as resistance and failed on 11/9. The second Fib support level at 38.2% was tested on 11/10, then broken 11/11. The third level of Fib support, at 50%, was then tested on 11/14, and is where prices are at right now. Again, for those who have any faith in Fibonacci numbers, the 50% retracement level is a very common level, after a tough correction has been ongoing, from which new rallies, and price recoveries commence from. Let’s see if we shall have any such experience as that next.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Black Friday Morning

And the metals are up as I type at 9:10 am EST. Wednesday, as ugly as that looked, was oddly bullish because of the massive divergence between the price action of the metals and that of the miners. Now, we see the metals staging something of a comeback, but I wouldn’t expect the same among the miners, until traders in the shares saw that the metals were to commence rallying. What will this day bring? Will it be a black Friday, or a bright Friday???

Harold

D.O.A?

It doesn’t look good, does it? Gold’s off nearly $25. Silver’s lost a lot of luster, too… down 1.71%. Did the support level break, or did it hold??? I’d expect volume to be YUGE! That would be especially true if support broke. Let’s go see!

Well now! Let’s start with those losers that declined on bigger than average volume: PAAS, HL, SGDM, ABX, GDX, SGDJ.

Ooooo, gold, in the form of GLD got crushed… support let go, and volume was truly YUGE!!! Silver as SLV also broke the support I’d marked, but not by much, and the volume was bigger, but not especially so.

Then, I see other losers that did so on no more than average volume: RGLD, PVG, SSRI, FSM, SILJ, CDE, SLW and AG.

FASCINATING! Gold got CRUSHED. Silver broke support, but, get this now, not ONE; not even ONE of the miners, or the mining funds, either broke support, or had volume like gold did!

Something is UP. I don’t know what it is… But, the miners always ‘outperform the metals, whether to the upside… or, to the downside! That is, when the metals take off, the miners soar! But, when the metals are all done, and they go into a bear, the miners absolutely “take the pipe”!!! That’s not what’s happening here… at all! And average volume was up by 49%, too!

The Monday, November 14 level of support I identified for all the miners and mining funds is still in place… while GLD and SLV have blown right through it. This is actually a matter of what would have to be described as truly bullish significance,… I know… as odd as that may sound. But, I’m telling you, IT IS! Let’s see what happens over the holiday, overseas, and on Friday. This could get truly amazing. Many a trader is going to see what I’ve just identified, and they’re going to react in some fashion or another, but for this moment in time, that reaction would seem to be a positive one, to the UPside!!!

My call now is: Look out! I think that something good is about to happen, as today’s charts, in relation to the actual metals themselves, is only a bullish development. Watch for it now! O, and Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

O, the Agony!

Yea, metals prices slip back overseas, overnight. Gold’s off a little more than $4, and silver’s slipped back by $.09 / .57%.

It doesn’t look like lift-off time yet… as of 8:06 am EST!

The line-in-the-sand support level going back to early February is still in place.

Harold

We Still Ask: Is It On?

It was a strange one. Gold closed down a bit, while silver closed up, but the price of nearly all the miners all closed up! This is a very positive, and bullish, development. Let’s go right to the charts to see what they might tell us.

I first see gainers on average volume, as with: PAAS,

Others that rose on better than average volume were: HL and SLW.

Still others rose on light volume: RGLD, SSRI, SLV, SGDM, PVG, SILJ, GDX, SGDJ, CDE, FSM, AG.

We saw gold decline, with ETF, GLD, on light volume, as did ABX.

It was another upward day in price, but on low volume, as the average for all the symbols was off 35%. So, while the metals didn’t perform particularly well, the miners still did. This is a positive development, and we need to continue to watch and be careful, as conviction has yet to come to this market.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell