I looked in on the metals after Monday’s close, and they were down. Now, trading overseas, they are up somewhat, but not as much as they had closed lower earlier.
However, a look in on my trading account shows that the miners had a pretty decent rebound today. It’s hard for that to matter too much, as the technical damage was done Friday, and this should be first looked upon as only a ‘dead-cat’ recovery bounce, until it might show itself to be anything different. And, many will want to take any advantage of just such a bounce, as their opportunity to sell out at a better price than what they had just seen. This would typically result in the previously established support, now broken, becoming the newest level of price resistance. Let’s see if this isn’t what our charts are looking like this evening.
Now, with 6 straight down days, and the last 4 of those on huge volume, we can find GLD getting close to an older, but far more important support level at the $115 price. This support level was established after it broke up through $115 in February, and then it was tested and held on two occasions thereafter in early April and the end of May/early June. It will be interesting to see if it can make a stand here. It closed at $116.11.
We’ve got a decliner in HL, but it is well above support, and has only fallen 3 straight days, after having made a new high on 11/9!
SLV has only fallen 2 days, but volume has been huge. It’s technical price picture is rather ugly.
RGLD had a positive day. It’s support is barely hanging on, and volume was rather high.
PVG found a bid under $8, and volume was pretty big, but its technical picture is not robust.
GDX looks similar to PVG. SGDM looks the same.
SGDJ looks to have found a price support level at $31 and change from where it broke out back on 4/8, and bounced off of during the May/June low. It’s an encouraging chart picture.
FSM closed up, and on pretty big volume, but its chart is not encouraging, like SGDJ was… at all.
ABX has declined all the way to a base that was formed throughout all of March. It’s been declining 3 straight days on big volume.
PAAS actually rose, though not by much, and only on average volume, whereas its decline the previous 2 days was on big volume.
SILJ has had 2 tough days on huge volume, and is back to an April/May base formation. SSRI has also fallen back into a May long base formation.
SLW rose a bit on strong volume, but not as much as the 2 previous down days.
CDE is back to a previous breakout price in June, from which it had launched to its August high.
Finally, AG is one issue that has actually not broken through its basing formation begun in early October.
As with the previous 3 days, volume was high. But, Mondays’ up volume, and last Wednesday’s up volume are not nearly as big as Thursday’s and Friday’s down volume. So, we are in need of being suspicious of this market, and cautious in our outlook and positions. Barring any circumstances, like declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar, we should not expect any soon revival of this bull… until it works out the technical price damage incurred only last Friday.
There’s no telling how long that might take, but we’ll continue to wait and to watch carefully, noting if, and when, the bull market might resume.
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell