The metals both lost a bit more ground today, But, the miners were mixed, some up and some down… which, in itself, is actually a positive and a bullish development. Let’s do a full examination of the charts.
We’ll start with those that closed up, and on average volume. That’s what these did: PAAS and HL.
I found some rose on light volume, too. See: SSRI and CDE.
Then, we’ll go to those that declined, also on average volume. That’s what these did: GLD, SLV, SGDM, PVG and SLW.
Others fell on light volume, as these did: RGLD, ABX, GDX and AG.
Still, there was one that declined on big volume, as did: FSM.
So, what are we looking at here? First, gold, by the ETF, GLD, has fallen back to a genuine ‘line-in-the-sand’ support level. Wish I could post charts. But if you can chart free at stockcharts.com, or investors.com, with 1 year of data, see how price first broached this level to the upside in early February. A sideways pattern then worked out thru late June, but the early February breakout became support, which held, in early April, and again in late May/first part of June. This is the last hurrah support level. A failure here would pretty much ‘put a fork in it’ and say this bull effort was all done.
That said, with today’s action, the metals are right at this final critical last stand support level now, but, the miners are not. All of them put in a low back on Monday, and rose some, and none are back to that price level now, nor was today’s mixed session, with some up and others down, on any big volume. It was some 9% lighter than average.
The message here is hope. While the metals are now right on this particular cusp, the miners have not joined the metals there, and are attempting to hold up.
The timer is offering that same glimmer of hope, as well. The price and F1 thru 6 indicators are signaling once again that the risk in this market has been wrung out with this most recent decline that commenced right after the election.
That said, barring any other circumstances, the technical and the price charts are saying that hope exists right here, and that a rally is about to ensue. I’ll be looking for that next week.
I should also add here: The same timer showing low-risk here, is measuring quite high risk in stocks at this time, which may commence to reverse to the downside next week… giving further reason, perhaps, that money might go to metals.
If you should see or hear any other opinions, or have formulated any of your own about these things, please feel free to share.
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell