The metals rose fairly well, and most of the miners had a good day, as well! We’ll go right to the charts…

Those that rose, but only did so on light volume: PAAS, SLV and GLD, SGDM, CDE, GDX and SLW.

And we have others that rose on average volume: HL, SILJ, RGLD, FSM.

These fell on average volume: ABX, AG, SSRI.

Ah, this fell on big volume: PVG.

Flashing through them all again quickly, the Monday 11/14 low is now a key support level, is holding up well, and a near month-long base has been forming since.

I recently mentioned a helpful timing system… It’s of a longer-term nature, and is proprietary to the program I do my charting in. It involves two simple moving averages related to price, but not the actual price itself. These two moving averages are more directly related to a stop-loss price computed on a gold miners index, the symbol of which is HUI. Besides these two moving averages, another moving average is calculated on a measure of price’s strength of movement. It’s not the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, but perhaps can be best likened unto it, and so, think of it as being like that.

Now, when the shorter-term moving average of the price’s stop-loss, moves above the longer-term moving average of the same stop-loss number, those MA’s are giving a signal. Then, the measure of price’s strength of its movement, which is being tracked by a moving average of its own moves above a pre-determined level in the program… you have a full signal, and the trend is decidedly up.

For our purposes, this system first signaled back on February 9, but was not the means by which I was alerted to a bull market in metals. I was alerted by another source, and began following the metals, and watching the prices consolidate their first big move up, then watched for a breakout, which I caught on Friday, April 8.

This system had signaled to get out at the end of September, at which point, according to this system, one could have purchased a short ETF against the metals. By going in on its signal, and getting out when it signaled to short, both of those would have been profitable trades. I’ll say more about this later…

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold f Crowell


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