Bounce Again?

Wednesday, May 31, 8:27 am EST. Well, gold is up a bit, and silver is off a smidge. Prices are still bouncing around, and I expect the miners will do the same.

There’s nothing really going on just yet, and technically, the charts show near-term support and resistance that is making prices bounce around much like a pinball.

So, let’s not be the least bit concerned, and continue to watch and wait, as there will be a move at some point in the future, as either this support, or this resistance, will be broken. Then there will be some opportunity, perhaps, to put on a trade.

I’ll update the timer, and perhaps draw some lines… maybe, between the two, I might be able to hazard some kind of a guess as to when we might be able to expect a real move to commence.

Harold

Reason To Be Concerned?

Tuesday, May 30, 7:22 pm EST. I don’t think we’ve reason to be concerned, but I’m going to examine all the charts for price and volume, and particularly to see if support is holding, and volume is weak. Those two factors would play into my current opinion. So, let’s have a look….

Yup, support remains intact, and the volume was virtually nonexistent! Average volume for all issues was off by 44%!

Let this play out… it needs to settle back. Risk needs to get wrung out. Support and resistance need to converge, and then, let the fireworks begin! Will it be up, or will it be down. I’m expecting it to go up!

Unless it doesn’t, then I’ll change my opinion………

Harold

Bounce Around

Tuesday, May 30, 9:19 am EST. It’s been my contention of late, as I seek to analyze the charts of the metals and miners, that we are presently caught in a sort of no-man’s land between tightening support and resistance.

If the past couple of days were up, from support, and headed toward nearby overhead resistance; then the price action this morning, where it is a little bit off, would be that downside we could expect to see, until this current pattern they are eking out, is resolved one way or the other… to the upside, or to the downside.

For now, we wait and we watch, as this is no time to enter a trade, and we are wanting for a trend to develop… and by those indications I see in the charts, I am currently of a belief that this resolution will ultimately be to the upside. The pattern I see is a bullish wedge forming by an average of all the symbols I track. But, I let the market tell me… I sure can’t be telling it what to do.

Harold

‘Nother Week Done!

Friday, May 26, 9:07 pm EST. The week ended on a high note. The metals did well… better than the miners. You’d expect all would have been up, but that was not the case.

So, by way of review for an average of all 16 symbols, as 1 chart: We have a December bottom. We rallied to 2/8. We settled back to 3/8 thru 15. That Wednesday, the 15th, we launched, but there was never any good volume or follow-through… no confirmation. We peaked at a lower high on 4/13, and commenced to fall back unto 5/4. It ‘rallied’ again, but without conviction, to another still lower high on 5/17. This is creating a Bullish Wedge formation, as the March and May lows are on a horizontal plane, as the 2/8, 4/13 and 5/17 tops are forming a lower highs wedge pattern. Since 5/17, prices settled back just a bit, to what I identified as a near-term support level, and it held. The wedge is closing and the top of it is now near-term resistance, which the price has been rising up to meet these past few days.

I’ll update the timer with the past couple of days’ data to get a feel for what risk might be involved.

Since volume was pitiful just before the long holiday weekend, being down by 41%, my guess is that we may well need to trade sideways, between the support/resistance, as it tightens up… risk will be being wrung out, and then, the possibility of breakout to the upside strikes me as the more likely outcome, and would fulfill the ‘prediction’ of the bullish wedge formation.  That’s my story, and I’m stickin’ to it… for now!

Harold

Happy Friday?

Friday, May 26, 7:12 am EST. Gold and silver have had quite an outing overnight overseas. How will it play out Friday? The near-term support I’d recently written of was halting the price decline, and now… will we blast out of the gate? Still looking for VOLUME, friends.

Without trader and investor conviction, it can’t go. Perhaps today?

Harold

So, What’s the deal?

Wednesday, May 24, 9:23 pm EST. Metals rose, as did most of the miners. Not knowing what volume was like, my first impression would be that things are playing out as I had thought. We recently retreated from resistance, but found nearby support as I previously described, and now, some back and forth is likely to ensue for awhile… I think.

A look at all of the charts, I see volume looking almost exactly like yesterday’s… light. There’s no conviction here. Let’s hope for the back and forth this might make for, so that a base might be formed from which a launch might come forth. That’s a lot of ‘mights’, but we’re trying to anticipate the future.

I’ll update the timing program tomorrow, to learn what the measures of risk are saying, and whether they might mark a new opportunity any time soon. Look for it Thursday.

Harold

Good, Bad or Indifferent?

Wednesday, May 24, 7:35 am EST. What was the last post? “Not much to cheer about”? You can say that again! So, Tuesday was a sell-off. We were bumping up against resistance, and it did not punch through. On the volume the ‘rally’ was generating, how was it ever going to?

So, now, what’s the damage? Is the selling on volume? We need to fall-back, regroup and re-set. We need to put in a true base, a support level. December is there. March is there. These need to hold, and prove to be even stronger support. From off of these levels, a new rally can certainly come, but it’s sure not looking like it was this time, since the May 4 low. Best now if that would hold, as we would have December, March and May bottoms as a real picture of bullish support… from which, one day, will emerge that rocket-rally that will make us all a good deal of money. The key is simply to continue to watch and to wait, and to not quit or give up… or, you’ll surely miss it!

Now, pay close attention to this, as gold, in the form of GLD, only fell back to its 50-day mov avg… and, just beneath the 50-day, is its 200-day, which means a “Golden-Cross” has occured, where the 50-day has just crossed up from under the 200-day, and price is still sitting atop both! This, in itself, would be considered a bullish sign… but, it would have to hold, and prove itself, so perhaps we’ll watch some epic struggle unfold here! That would take on this appearance… near-term resistance is not far above, and the support I just described is where gold is at right now. To go sideways here, and form a sideways, consolidative base would be helpful, and put in another support level, higher than the previous ones since December. Did I confuse you? Sorry, but that’s the picture being painted, technically speaking.

Then, and I’ll close on this: The metals have been behaving better than the miners, so they are still correcting their large outperformance from this time last year… and, the chart of all of them are creating a bullish wedge pattern, which would suggest that after this correction finally finishes; and that wedge is tightening, and getting smaller, the greater likelihood is that prices will break out to the upside, and the miners would outperform again!

Harold

Not Much to Cheer About

Tuesday, May 23, 8:13 am EST. I’ve been ill, which has slowed me up some. The metals had a nice day Monday, and all of the miners responded accordingly. Has the volume arrived? Do traders and investors think there’s a future in it? Let’s see!

We put in a low back on Thursday 5/4. We rose consistently right into last Thursday, the 18th, when metals hit a buzzsaw. They’ve been in something of a recovery mode Friday, and yesterday. So, how healthy is this recovery looking?

The recovery in both gold and silver prices has been far better than that of the recovery in the prices of the miners. And, incredibly, volume is drying right up! It was off 41% from the 50-day average, and considerably lower than Friday’s volume. This is NOT looking good. In fact, it’s beginning to look pitiful. Further erosion of this nature, and I would expect prices to fall away further soon. I’m leery and cautious.

Harold

What’s Coming?

Monday, May 22, 7:40 am EST. Gold’s up a smidge, but silver’s up more than 1%! That ought to bring some help to those miners that had been pummeled so badly. Silver had gotten to where it was testing its December low, and that really needed to hold, which it did… so, it’s a good thing to see silver on the mend. More later, perhaps after the close.

Harold

Making Its Way Back?

Friday, May 19 6:25 pm EST. The metals had a decent outing today, the recovery has been pretty good. Volume was way off again, though… 32% less than the 50-day average of volume for them all.

The chart for GLD shows price to have just gotten back above both its 50-day, and its 200-day moving average… And, it’s 50-day avg is right where it is about to cross back over the 200-day avg. That would typically be construed as a very positive technical development… let’s watch closely to see if it actually is in this case.

Silver has a considerable way to go, if it’s going to match that appearance for gold. Price is well below its 50-day, and even more so, below its 200-day.

Let’s be patient. When we ever catch a truly big, bull market rally in the metals and miners, we will make some very good money.

Harold