Can You Feel It?

Friday, June 30, 7:54 pm EST. I went thru the charts. The miners are firming up right here, where I see gold trying to put in support. All the miners appear to be looking good. I’ll update the timer, as gold did close a bit lower, and this will push the indicators down some. I’m curious as to just how much closer they’re getting to giving a signal.

Yes, sir! Price is not at its lower trading bands, but close. F1 has signaled. F2 is so close, I can taste it. F3 tends to be slower, and is within, perhaps just 2 days of signaling. F4 has already turned up, and may have signaled. It came so close, I can’t say. What does that matter? F5 has JUST tagged 40 today, and that’s a signal. Finally, F6 is at 6, and is re-signaling.

I’m feeling real good about what I’m seeing. I think I see gold and many miners looking like they’re finding support. The timer is close to giving an all-clear, lo-risk entry signal.

I think we’ll see something happen next week! O, and as I survey the same indicators for stocks, specifically the OEX and the QQQ, I see a similar set-up taking place, except that I can see them requiring just a little more time than gold… say, another few days.

I certainly do hope that all goes down a little further, and that I can deploy a lot of cash into favorite ideas, both with precious metals, and safe-dividend growing stocks!

Harold

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Updated the Timer

Friday, June 30, 12:43 pm EST. I’ve updated the timer, and I am correct. The technical measures of market risk are getting back to their respective signaling places. Let me review them with you.

First, is the relationship of price with the two lower trading bands the OEXpert 7 Timing Program generates. I would love to see some further decline to the 116 to 117 area for GLD. It’s presently around 118, the number I called for earlier, but the program has since lowered those bands a bit. Price is close to touching the first of its two lower trading bands.

F1 presently reads 20, but it has already been down to 4, and turned back up. It signaled previously, and that signal is still in effect. Going sideways, flat at 20, it’s about to turn back down again. Anything under 10 serves as a good signal. A few more days, and it could signal again.

F2 is almost at -4 and signaling. I’d expect it to signal today, if price closes lower.

F3 is at 23, and falling fast. Anything under 10 is a signal and could get there in a couple or 3 more days.

F4 is at about -3.5 to -4. Just a bit lower, and it will signal, too.

F5 is at 48, and needs to get to 40 to signal. Again, just 2 more days or so, and it will join the camp.

F6 has just been under 10, and signaled, but it has already turned, up, reversed back down, and is at 12, and falling back.

In short, everything in the OEXpert 7 Timing Program has either signaled already, as F1 and F6 have, but, with just a little more downside price action, F2, F3, F4 and F5 will join in and give us a lo-risk market entry signal.

Let’s see what we get the next few trading days, coming up on the holiday, as I think we’ll see an opportunity to arise very soon. And, by the way, timing stocks by means of the data for the OEX and the QQQ, I see stocks putting in some kind of a tradable bottom shortly, too!

Harold F Crowell

 

Should Start Setting Up

Thursday, June 29, 8:46 pm EST. I’m going to update the timer. I’ve already viewed all the charts. Volume expanded a good bit today, but still didn’t even match its own 50-day moving average. Support’s still in place… in short, nothing serious is really going on yet. No need to be nervous. Hope for even more sideways, and downside, type price action.

I’ll update in the morning, but we can possibly see a lo-risk entry opportunity affording itself before long. Don’t let the financial news talking heads fool you. There’s a trade out there, and we’re going to catch it. If not this summer, then, almost certainly come the fall.

More in the morning………

Harold

Slidin’ Away Again!

Thursday, June 29, 8:25 am EST. The metals are fading away again, but that’s perfectly alright with me. I am wanting just a little more downside and sideways price action for a bit, just to get the technical measures of market risk that I employ to reset and give me an ‘all-clear’ lo-risk market entry signal. In time, it will come.

Harold

All the Way Back?

Wednesday, June 28, 7:28 am. I didn’t bother to comment on how Tuesday went. The metals both closed up some, but not as much as they were at the open; and the miners closed slightly off. The metals are now up again, a fairly decent amount this morning, and I think they are just about all the way back. With that, perhaps we’ll see some decent price recovery in the miners.

All previous support is still in place, from December, March and May. All we’re waiting on is a decent rally launch, which I’d like to be able to detect, if the technical measures of market risk would go to their respective signaling places, and give me a good heads up to be on the lookout for it.

I’ll update the timer, and if there’s anything more to say, I’ll get back and comment.

Harold

Comin’ Back!

Tuesday, June 27, 6:36 am EST. Are you kidding me? Look at that! Overnight, gold’s been working its way back! At $1,251.20, it’s nearly all the way back… and silver, too. Each are up about 1/2 of 1%.

The miners closed ‘well’ yesterday, considering the drubbing gold had taken the night before. I find all of this to be evidences of strength, and of strong underlying support. I looked at all the charts, and the miners fared way better than the metals. December, March and May lows are intact… and, the Bullish Wedge pattern, that the average of all the issues I track, is getting tighter and tighter. There’s not much room left. Which way will it break? My ‘guess’ for now is… higher!

Harold

Total Weirdness!

Monday, June 26, 5:52 pm EST. So, about 4:00 am this morning, a massive gold sale went through, knocking the price back by some $20… then, throughout the day today, the price of gold slowly worked its way back, to close off earlier by only $12.10, or .96%. Pretty bad, you’d think. I though for sure that miners would get smashed hugely today… au contrare, mon ami! Mining stocks closed off only a little bit… an average of all I follow was off .56%. Scary, hunh? Not really.

In any case, I’m going to update the timer, and hope that we can flounder around for a while longer, and the technical measures of risk can get to their respective signaling places, if they would. Still expecting it set-up for a goodly trade in the not-too-distant future!

Harold

 

CLOCKED!

Monday, June 26, 6:17 am. Wow! What a shocker to go online this morning, and see that gold had taken a rather precipitous plunge of some $14.80, or 1.18%!

I was no believer in the most recent ‘rally’ that looked to be kicking off last week, as you know.

Now, I love what I am seeing, as this could result in a true vomiting up of shares, and the putting into place of a genuinely tradable bottom. That remains to be seen, of course, but I would like for the May, March or December lows to remain intact, and also to be an excellent entry point.

After today, if this should play out as I would hope, to be updating the timer… and maybe all the indicators will be falling into place shortly!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Any Good Reason?

Saturday, June 24, 1:35 pm EST. Had received a reply from a reader mentioning certain technical indicators, including a special favorite of mine, that I had not looked at in some time… called the P3 Squeeze. I won’t try to explain it here and now, but I went through my charts on the stockcharts.com site, where I have a default setting having this P3 Squeeze set-up programmed in it. I had promised this reader that I’d look for any P3 Squeezes indicating a near certain price reversal to the upside.

I went through all the gold miner, royalty firms, ETFs, and the metals themselves, in the form of the GLD and SLV funds. Whereas, I had seen plenty of P3 Squeeze signals around the previous December, March and early May lows… I could find no such P3 Squeeze signals among my charts for this most recent turn in price that commenced this past week. None.

This only serves to reinforce my current opinion that we just don’t have anything here to be getting excited about yet, and I’m currently thinking that unless something should light a fire under the metals markets, so that we see further price increases taking place with some real trader and investor involvement pushing prices on expanding volume… I’ll remain wary and uncommitted.

Harold

Is It? IS IT?!?!?

Friday, June 23, 9:08 pm EST. So, is it the real deal? Is it the rally we’ve been waiting for? Should we back up the truck, and load up? Is it time to put it all out there?

Prices did well today! And, volume… well, volume improved too… a little… a very little. How little? Whereas volume was off by 26% from the 50-day average Thursday… it was off by 21% today, Friday, from that 50-day average. Or, in other words, there appeared to be some more participation… maybe, but very little more. Certainly not enough more that I could tell anyone that this was that opportunity we’ve all been waiting for. Because the evidence is in, and the evidence says… this is still a yawner, and anyone willing to risk a trade had better be ready to bail speedily, as it’s not beginning to show the kind of life that would say, “Hey, look at me! I’m pulling out of the station, and you’d better be climbing on board, or you’ll miss the train!” Nope. I’d rather wait… maybe even for a whole ‘nother opportunity.

I’ll let what I have in remain there, but I’ll not commit anything more yet. Perhaps Monday will have more to say, but this week evoked no confidence from out of me!

What’s anyone else got to say about it?

Harold