What to Make of it

Monday, July 31, 9:17 am EST. Gold’s been having a good run since I called the turn in the 7/7, 7/10 and 7/11 time frame. Silver’s done alright, but the miners have not done as well. The traders and investors have not been believers in this rally. With the one big move up 7/26, I said we need to see a follow-through, but much of Wednesday was undone by Thursday, and then Friday attempted a weak recovery of what was taken away on Thursday. It would be truly helpful to see a follow-through… another good rise in price on expanding volume here in the next 2 to 5 more trading days. That’s what I’ll be watching for.

The metals moved little over the weekend, so no big move in the miners could be expected this morning. Later………



Change of Heart?

Friday, July 28, 6:43 am EST. Well, the Fed ‘encouragement’ Wednesday afternoon didn’t last for long, now did it? Thursday was a yawner, and overnight, prices settled back some more. If Wednesday is to be truly meaningful, we need to see, after no more than 2 to 5 more trading days, a follow-through, somewhat similar to Wednesday, where price gets a good lift and volume expands again. I’m not of an opinion that it will not happen, but I will be on the lookout for it.

In other words, I’m not going to hold my breath!


The Fed Giveth…

Wednesday, July 26, 9:13 pm EST. Well, it turned out to be a pretty big day. The Fed speak this afternoon was considered quite dovish, and so the metals responded positively.

The charts are uniformly Bullish Engulfing candlesticks, and on goodly volume, too! By goodly, we’re talking 32% above the 50-day average volume. We’ve not seen volume like that in quite some time. Further, the chart for the average of all 16 symbols closed right on the very line for overhead resistance I had drawn connecting the previous Nov., Feb., Apr., and June tops. A push through that line would be meaningful Thursday, on top of the very bullish potential reversal we may be looking at from today.

Let’s see what the morning might bring, and whether there’s a trade to be made here. It shows some potential, and we can’t ignore it. I’d have rather gotten the scenario I had been laying out and hoping for, but you can’t dictate to the markets. You can only go with what they give you, and this may be giving us a real opportunity! Time will tell, and usually fairly quickly.


Still On the Slide!

Wednesday, July 26, 6:56 am EST. Gold fell some Tuesday, and fell some more overnight overseas. This is actually the trend that we want to see at this time. My indicators gave a lo-risk entry signal back mid-month, but as I stated repeatedly, the subsequent ‘rally’ since then had no force of conviction behind it, and looked to fail. It now appears that it has… and, of particular interest to me, the indicators nearly always get to a place of registering an overbought extreme, but not this time!

This last ‘rally’ was so weak and unconvincing, there wasn’t even enough drive behind it to push the technicals to overbought readings. What this could mean, is that prices might not need to fall back too terribly far before they might reset the technical indicators of market risk. If anything like that should work out, we might be able to get that real rally we’ve been waiting for, this next time!

Gosh, this forecasting and predicting stuff can sure be hard, especially the future! Here’s hopin’ it works out just as we’re prognosticatin’!


Nobody’s THAT Good!

Tuesday, July 25, 6:49 am EST. It looks to be starting! The latest decline, into what I expect will be the next truly good metals rally worth trading, may be starting now. Look back over the past couple of posts, I thought we had peaked, and thought we might be making the turn downward… and, this seems to be the very case. Who’s been able to call these things that good? (When I started this in April of ’16, I was shocked by how seemingly ‘easy’ this was, and realized that had I specialized in this all along, I might have become incredibly wealthy… rich as Croesus! Lol!)

May it all work itself out over the next several weeks in such a way as to give us the very signal to call the turn, and may it be that rally that is identified as ‘REAL,’ for the scope of it… that being a goodly gain on the initial launch, on a considerable spike in volume.

If you were to ask me when, my earliest first guess would be… perhaps, after Labor Day, when all the traders are back off their summer vacations, and looking to seriously get back to work. Let’s plan on that for now.

Harold F Crowell

A “Hot Tip?”

Monday, July 24, 6:13 pm EST. This JUST in, from the Stansberry folks:

“Earlier this month, we noted that speculative traders – as measured by the U.S government’s weekly Commitments of Traders (“COT”) report – were fleeing from precious metals. As we wrote on July 11.

Net speculative positions have fallen from an all-time record of more than 100,000 contracts this spring to less than 30,000 contracts today. And they’re quickly closing in on levels that have marked important bottoms in the past.

Speculative positions in gold – which didn’t surpass last year’s record this year – have experienced a similar decline.

Again, this doesn’t mean the next rally is imminent… But it suggests we’re finally close to a significant bottom in gold and silver.

Stay patient… Your next great buying opportunity is approaching.

Since then, speculators have continued to unwind their bullish bets. According to the latest COT data, net speculative positions have now plunged to fewer than 10,000 contracts as of last week…

As you can see in the chart, speculators now hold even fewer bullish bets than they did in late 2015, just before the new bull market began. It appears they’re finally throwing in the towel for the first time in nearly a year.

Remember, these traders are known as the ‘dumb money’…

As a group, they tend to be wrong at the extremes. They get super bullish at market tops, and super bearish at market bottoms. So today’s pessimism is a bullish sign for prices going forward.

But that’s not all. As you can see in the next chart, silver prices have begun to diverge over the past few weeks…

The dumb money is giving up, but silver prices have been moving higher, anyway. This, too, is a bullish sign.

Again, as we always say, sentiment is not a precise timing tool. Speculators could become more bearish still, and prices could move lower again in the near term. So don’t back up the truck just yet.

But for the first time since precious metals peaked last summer, we now have the necessary ingredients for a lasting bottom. If you’ve been waiting for a great, low-risk buying opportunity, get ready. It’s likely just around the corner.”

This has my antenna up! I’ll be watching daily to see if such an opportunity, as they just described, should come to fruition shortly. I will certainly hope to see my own timing indicators to reset first, as that would be so awesome to actually be able to call it, just as it might be about to happen. If I get such a signal, and I should learn that they’re calling for the same, at the same time… I’ll be willing to take an aggressive position, and advise you to do the same. Watch!!!


Update 6:26 pm… Of keen interest, most of the miners declined, and on expanding volume. While nearly 10% below the 50-day average volume, it was still considerably greater than the previous 5 up days. The resulting candlestick is a Bearish Engulfing pattern-type. This may be the beginning of that down move that might set-up the next great rally of which the above report is telling us to anticipate… we shall see! Sure hope they’re right and I can generate a signal!!!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Traders Bailed!

Monday, July 24, 5:05 pm EST. The metals pretty much went nowhere today. Gold ever so slightly up, and silver off a smidge.

But, the miners took it rather hard. I’d say that early traders, that tried to get in and ride this rally, saw that it wasn’t to be, and bailed out of positions. I’ll check the charts later, and I need to update the timer, but that would be my best guess until I should give the charts a look.


Up Again… But!

Friday, July 21, 6:06 pm EST. Well, it was another decent outing, and we have some share price gain to show for it… again. This has been ongoing since the market turn back on July 10. The timer was calling for that possibility back then. I’ve since, daily, been analyzing the moves, and I have again today, as well.

For Friday, prices rose for all, but 3. Volume is still weak, being off 34% from the 50-day average. Average volume has even fallen off by 50% the past 6 months, as traders have lost interest. Which is good, by the way, the more that sell and move on, the better the final bottom will be!

The price of gold has now risen thru its 200-day, and its 50-day, and its 50-day has turned upward. Volume on the GLD ETF has, itself, spiked today, to 45% above its own 50-day average volume; a volume it hasn’t shown to the upside in quite a while. I think that all may be somewhat significant. But, even if it is, the same cannot be said for the miners.

I’m content to watch this and not add any new positions. It just is not compelling.

Harold F Crowell

The Rally to Nowhere?

Friday, July 21, 8:19 am EST. So the metals actually had a decent day yesterday, though they started out lackluster… and overnight, they’ve done fairly well, too.

It’s time to check all the charts and see what they’re looking like. Is anything truly significant going on?

Those that had put a trade on, and I had said to keep it on a very short leash… some of you had your stop hit, and you may have sold. Others did not get their stop hit, and may still be in. Do you stay, or do you go? What is in the charts???

We’ve ‘rallied’ since I called the turn on 7/10. All the charts show that we’ve risen for a spell, and are now marking time in some consolidation for the past 3 trading days. Volume is still weak. Thursday’s was still off by 37% from the 50-day moving average… these are the Summer Doldrums, nobody cares. With the metals doing well overnight, there should be a morning pop or bounce, but let’s see what can be determined after the close and over the weekend. There’s nothing here yet that I can get excited about. I’ll need to update the timer, as well.