Tuesday, July 4, 9:05 pm EST. Metals are up a fairly decent amount overseas. Let’s see how Wednesday starts here in the states in the morning! Is there a tradable rally to be had???

I’d rather it didn’t start just yet… would love at least one more down day to put everything firmly in place, but life doesn’t often work that way.

Harold

Advertisements

4 thoughts on “FYI

  1. From a Seeking Alpha article posted tonight:
    Gold Weekly: Will The Fed Smash The Barbarous Relic?

    Macro investors will pay a close attention to the minutes of the June FOMC meeting (due on July 5) and the US jobs report for June (due on July 7), which should give further lights about: (1) the level of determination of the Fed to continue to normalise its policy stance in spite of US growth losing momentum; and (2) the health of the labor market (especially wage growth).
    Any surprise in the Fed’s rhetoric or jobs number may have strong implications on the dollar and US rates, which in turn could add volatility to the gold market.

    RRS: my suspicion is that the FED Minutes will show their intent to have more than one additional Rate increase in 2017. That could send Gold lower, correct ?

    That said, two developments are encouraging. First, gold remained broadly resilient in spite of the magnitude of the wave of speculative selling over the reporting period, which suggests perhaps the presence of physical buyers ready to support prices. Second, the net spec length in gold now represents just 27% of its record, suggesting that there is limited room for additional speculative selling.

    To sum up, even in a worst-case scenario (i.e., a negative swing in speculative sentiment toward gold), the downward pressure in gold prices may prove limited.

    While I am willing to accept that my “working hypothesis” was wrong, I need to see a firm daily close below the May low of $1,214 per oz before closing out my bullish bet and reassess the situation.

    I think it is important to adopt a cautious attitude toward gold at this stage, because one cannot rule out a repeat of the “Taper Tantrum” a la 2013.

    In this context, I think it is prudent not to fight the Fed and exit my long position in GLD on a daily close below the May low.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s