Next Week???

Friday, September 29, 6:18 pm EST. Well, it was another down day in the precious metals markets! This puts F1 in the OEXpert 7 timer at 10, and it is signaling. F2 is at -5, and has now signaled. F3 is at 19, and about to signal in another day or 2. F4, at -5, has signaled for us. F5 is now at 45 and could join the chorus with just one more day. Finally, F6 is at 9, has just gotten under 10, and that’s a signal for us! The price of GLD has yet to touch either of its two lower trading bands, but it’s getting close. I’ve been saying all along that if price could get to at least as low as $120, that would be nice, and it would have gotten through the first of its lower bands to signal.

My take is that if we can get any more downside price action next week, we could look for an all-out lo-risk market entry signal, and could begin to look for a the turn upward anytime after that. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that if we can get just another day or two, and get all the indicators to where I’d be happy, I’m going to step up and take a position in NUGT for a trade. I’ll check prices in other indicators within stockcharts.com, too, and see if I can find what are called P3 Squeezes among the symbols I track there, for further confirmation of a bottom.

I’ll study the charts and report back over the weekend.

Harold

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We’re Holding Our Breath!

Friday, September 29,  1:35 am EST. Going to the timer, after putting in Thursday’s data, here is where the indicators stand. F1 is at 10. It had already signaled. F2 is at least at -4, and I’d love for it to be able to decline to -5, but -4 will do. F3 is still dropping and now reads 23, on its way down to 10 or lower. It’s getting close. F4 has attained unto -5, and is now signaling. F5 is now at 51. We want a 40 or lower reading, It and F3 could get there in another day or 2. F6 stalled at 11. Just a little more downside, and this one would signal, too. I would still like to see price get to $120 or lower for GLD, and that would put all the indicators in their lo-risk market entry signaling place. Price is still at $122.

All I can say is that, based upon the OEXpert 7 Timer, we are getting close to an all-out lo-risk market entry opportunity signal in the metals and miners. That opportunity is likely to present itself within the very next week. If we get it, we’ll then look for a 1%+ move up, on volume, and take a position in NUGT to capitalize on the rally we should expect to launch. May it be!

Also, just checking in on prices overseas, and… They are off some! Yes! This is what we’re looking for! It’s time to start preparing for a potential trading opportunity… so, hold your breath!

Harold

No Reversal Day

Thursday, September 28, 5:32 pm EST. So, prices turned up. Was this the reversal day, and we’re off to the races with a rally before all the indicators set-up for a lo-risk entry? Nope.

Volume was truly abysmal! Off by 30% below its own 50-day avg of volume. No price moved so much as to signify a reversal either. Typically, you’d want to see at least a 1% move up on big volume. Nothing like that happened today. This would look like a short reprieve as we continue downward to where I hope to find the actual bottom and lo-risk entry area. This is an actual price support area, but it will either hold, or we’ll need some more downside, to put my indicators into place… which is what I’d really like to see.

Harold

 

Yes, Still Setting Up!

Thursday, September 28, 8:16 am EST. Prices dropped Wednesday, and they’ve risen some overnight.

The timer says: F1 is at 11 and has already signaled. F2 is now at, or very close to, -5, and this is right at its signaling place. F3 is now at 30. Could 10, and a signal, be far away? F4 has cleared -4 to the downside, and that’s a signal. F5 is at 55, on its way to 40. It needs a bit more time with flat or lower prices to get it there. And, F6 is now at 11, and only needs to drop another point to signal. The Price, in relation to its lower 2 trading bands in the program, would begin to touch them, if the price of GLD would drop from its $122 level, down to almost $120… and better, if we could see it fall to $119.

You can’t always get what you want! But, here’s to hoping for an all-out, full-blown, lo-risk market entry signal. If we could get the right kind of market action in the metals, we could see a real good opportunity to shape up for us in the next week! I’ll be watching for it.

Harold

Still Setting Up?

Wednesday, September 27, 7:49 am EST. Metals have been on the decline again, and that is what we have wanted here of late, so as to reset all the technical measures of market risk in gold, silver and their miners.

The timer is getting to where I’d like to see things. F1 is signaling. F2 is typically first, so I give it less weight, and it is getting ever so close… today could do it. F3 is typically the slowest and is reading a 38, on its way down to 10 or lower. It would still need some time. F4, like F2, is ever so close, and could get there today. F5 is at 60, on its way to 40, or lower. It might need as much time as F3. F6 looks to be at 14, and could use another day, that it might get to 10, or lower. If nothing, like a North Korea missile launch, should happen, and we can get just a couple or 3 more down days, I’d say we’d be getting right into place. The price of GLD, within its trading bands in the program, really could drop to that $120, or even $118, level to really get my heart pounding for a rally and a trade.

Looking into the price charts for all 16 symbols, and then the one chart comprised of an average of all 16, I see that price and volume are all rather complacent. GLD is finding good support on its 50-day mov avg, though to get to that $120 – $118 area, it needs to break its 50, and drop down to the place of its 200-day, which is presently sloping upward, and at $118.38. It is a bullish chart. SLV looks weaker, and is actually a somewhat bearish chart! Volume is returning back into this market since summer ended. The avg volume was up 9% above its own 50-day avg of volume.

All in all, we could really use just a little more time of nothing to downside price action, and the technical measures would be in place. Ideally, I’d love to see price drop off and get into its lower trading bands within the program, but it doesn’t have to. I’ll keep watching and waiting… and posting here.

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10:15 am EST. Prices are dropping well. It’s looking like we may very well get what we are looking for… soon!

Harold

What Will This Week Bring?

Monday, September 25, 7:50 am EST. The metals aren’t off so bad this morning, as they were last night. But, they’re still off some.

I updated the timer, and I’d like to see price get to the $118 to $120 for GLD, but it does not have to. F1 is under 10, and the first to signal. F2 is almost at -4, and needs to fall some more. Negative 5 or lower would do it, and it could get there with just one more down day, or two. F3 is slow and at 47. It doesn’t need to participate, but I always feel more comfortable when it does. F4 is getting close. Needs to reach -4 and is between negative 2 and 3. Like F2, just another day or 2 could easily do it. F5 is at 61, and it needs to get to 40. It needs a bit more time… 2 days, possibly more. F6 is right at 20. It could reach 10 or lower with one more day or 2, like a couple of the others.

This week may bring to us a lo-risk market entry opportunity. I’ll be watching for it. I may take a position in NUGT, if it gets there, and I can feel comfortable with it. Wishing I had back in July, when it last signaled, I’m willing to take a chance on it. I’ll say so, if I do.

Harold

It Could Happen!

Sunday, September 24, 7:53 pm EST. The metals are off overseas. If it should continue into the week, I do believe that I could get a lo-risk market entry signal. I’ll do my very best to stay right on top of this situation. I’ll enter in the Friday market data into the timer, but with more downside in this week… I’ll be looking for the possibility of a signal very soon!

Harold

Stop the Presses!

Thursday, September 21, 7:12 pm EST. Prices keep going down. I’m lovin’ this! The indicators are actually plunging rapidly.

In the OEXpert 7 Timer, F1 is already down to 13, and could actually render a signal… tomorrow! F2 is at -4 and could also signal as early as tomorrow, should it get to -5 or lower. The F3 indicator, slowest of the bunch, is already at 51, on its way to 10. It could get there next week. F4 is near -2, and only needs to get to -4 to signal. It could happen tomorrow, but I’d think it might need 2 more days. F5 has already gotten down to 60, on its way to a signal at 40. Yeah, a couple of days could get it there, I believe. Then, F6 is at 27, and it, too, could signal as soon as possibly Monday? Price, though… price needs to get to the 120 to 118 area for GLD, and it’s only been as low as $122.49 today. A few more points shaved off of GLD would put that right where I’d like to see it, as well as all 6 of the indicators in the program. And, the longer-term support levels would remain intact, which would be a bullish development.

A look at all the charts says that all major support levels below price are holding up, and at this point, I don’t really expect them to be tested or broken. Right now, I’m thinking a higher low might get put in, and then a reversal to the upside… we’ll see. Stay tuned. I need to be all over this, starting NOW!

Harold

THAT’S What I’m Talkin’ About!

Thursday, September 21, 6:40 am est. Metals took a dive. They fell big. This is going to begin to set up the lo-risk market entry opportunity I’ve been watching and waiting for!

First, we’ve got bearish engulfing candles everywhere. Next, we’ve got expanded volume up 47% over the 50-day average. This was quite the smash! Next, is an assault on nearest-term support levels. Will these hold? I’m hoping not, but only because I’m wanting to catch a technical bottom with my own timing indicators.

It’s time now to update the timer, and consider any other indicators I deem useful, to begin the watch for opportunity. I’ll update the timer, and try to determine at what price level, and how much time it might require, in order to get to where we may begin to anticipate the next tradable bottom.

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Updating the timer, F1 is at 22, and below its lower trading band, though price has only just fallen thru its upper trading band. F1 is nearing a signal. Fast F2 is at -3, and approaching its -5 signaling place. Slow F3 is at 59. Will it ever get to the signaling place at 10 or lower? F4 is at 0, and needs to get to at least -4 or lower. It could take a little bit. F5 is at 65, and headed to 40 to signal. It could use as much time as F4. Finally, F6 is reading 38, and needs to get to 10 or lower. It will require about the same amount of time… perhaps a week or more. A price of about $118 to $120 for GLD looks like the ticket! I’ll stay on top of this. Opportunity may come knockin’ fairly soon!

Harold

Bounce?

Wednesday, Sept. 20, 7:44 am EST. So, what has happened, as best I can see, is that the entire pop that commenced on August 28 has been entirely given back in SLV and most of the miners… the mining funds in particular. GLD hasn’t given it all back yet. The price level, at the base or bottom of the 8/28 candle, also has a small gap under it from where the 27th left off. This would be a natural place for price support, and in silver and many miners, that is what we’re seeing at this time.

The other point is that volume is just falling over the cliff. Off 36% yesterday from it 50-day average; it is very light. At best, I think we’re getting a bit of a bounce. I hope that is all it is, as I would still dearly love to see this sell-off to where I could confidently say that we’re likely looking at a lo-risk entry point. That time would still seem to be at least a couple of weeks away, perhaps longer.

Yet, a third point is that price, overnight, got quite close to the $1,300 level, and that price had previously been the resistance level at which many traders had jumped on, when price had broken through… so, that also had made it the new and latest support level.

Harold

I have to be away from Thursday, October 19 thru Monday the 30th. I will almost certainly not have internet access where I am going. It cannot be helped. My fear, of course, is that will be just when things will be ripe for action!