Stickin’ My Neck Out

Wednesday, February 28, 9:03 pm EST. I’ve updated my timer, and I think it’s trying to say something. Let’s see if I’m reading this correctly.

First, in order for one very important indicator to signal… price support would have to break. That would appear to most to be a very bad thing. But, the F1 thru F6 indicators would all very quickly fall into place. I could see F1 giving a signal next week. F2 could signal before this week ends. But, it tends to be first anyway, so I don’t give it as much credence. F3, which often takes longer, could also easily signal next week. F4 is the least likely, but could also get into place next week. F5 is surprising me. I think it will signal as early as maybe even tomorrow! That leaves us with F6. Give it a couple of days, and early next week, it could be signaling again.

So, here’s what I am thinking… or, more like wondering. Perhaps support gets broken, and a ‘shake-out’ occurs, where weak hands sell… but, no sooner than that happens, then we get an upside reversal, and a true rally move shows itself.

I could see such a thing begin to set-up as early as this week, with a reversal coming next… if I am reading what this OEXpert 7 timer might be trying to say to me.

Share prices, for the most part have fallen to the place of price support, which means it is now being tested. The test may fail, and support be broken… then, let’s see if what I’ve just proposed doesn’t actually come true. Hey, it could happen! Let’s watch and see what unfolds.

Harold

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Wedgie!

Teusday, February 27, 7:01 pm EST. I’ve been away, and I’ve returned. The metals turned up when I had said that I thought they would, and they got turned back from right at that very place of resistance I had thought that maybe they would. That was some pretty good technical analysis and prognostication. Oh, and today, it got all the way back down, and bounced off of price support… all the while the distance between the two keeps getting smaller… like a spring being compressed ever more tightly!

Most of the charts are looking pretty bearish at this time, but price support is just beneath current prices, and now it is time to see whether it’s going to hold, or give way. Should support fail, a lot will be throwing in the towel, as this was all setting up as a quite a bullish picture. It still remains so, but a great danger to it currently exists.

If support should fail, I’d expect considerably more selling. If the overhead resistance can be overcome, a good deal more buying would create follow-through… and the distance between those levels is tightening. It’s creating a very large wedge pattern.

I’ll update the timer tomorrow, and see if I can’t derive any greater insight from it, as well as to look into the other technical indicators I’ve put faith in.

I’m wanting to be enthusiastic, but I have a sense of impending doom hanging over my head… and, it causes me to wonder if we won’t, in fact, have a very ugly spill. What do you think?

Harold

Back in the Saddle Again!

Tuesday, February 27, 9:41 am EST. I’m home from a Third-World not-so-developing Nation. Looking at a couple of previous posts… It would appear I called the last bottom, as well as suggested that previous resistance might likely prove to be the next top.

Very quickly examining a GLD price top, it would appear I got both calls right.

As soon as I am able, I’ll get all caught up, review all the charts, and see where we’re presently at, as well as to suggest where I think things might go in the short-term, before what we will get is a pretty certain longer-term breakout to the upside, with what I believe might be with some kick, so that gains should be substantial then.

More later…. when I can get back.

Harold

Will It? Or, Won’t It?

Wednesday, February 14, 4:57 am EST. Not out of the woods yet… but, once again, overnight, Tuesday night, the metals have been having a decent outing, in the sense that prices are hanging right in there. Gold is up some and silver is, too. Nothing major, mind you, but showing just the kind of signs of good health that say… This is a Bull Market in the metals. It started with the bottom in December of ’15. That’s big-time, serious, major support. The next truly major support level was put into place in December of ’16. If all continues as it has of late, the December ’17 low looks to be the third and most recent major price support level… and, each one is higher than the previous one. This is what helps us to define this as a true Bull Market.

Next, and this is easily as important… The high after the Dec ’15 low, in July of ’16, is the highest of tops since the market turned bullish. The high after the Dec ’16 low, in Sept of ’17, is a lower high. That Sept high, however, is right where the rally out of the Dec ’17 low also just recently ended in the Jan., not 1 month ago… that formed a double-top; and is now a truly formidable resistance point, but by no means a Bull back-breaker!

The longer-term chart, that goes as far back as to include the Dec ’15 Bear-to-Bull Market turn, is one of a bullish wedge pattern. We have higher lows, followed by lower highs. It is coiling a little bit tighter with time. One of two more likely things are going to happen from here. I’m prognosticating, but there’s some good history, and a bit of technical chart-reading science to this: Either these markets continue upward, and breakthrough the double-top formed from the Sept ’17 / Jan.’18 highs, or it gets turned back from there once again, and this ‘spring’ will be compressed tighter, as it comes back down to challenge some support level, either the one just put in 2/7, 8+9, or back to the Dec ’17 low, to re-group and run at it again. But…

In any case, this is a Bull Market, and when it breaks up out and through the overhead resistance only a little bit higher, in the $128 / $129 area for GLD, there’s going to be some ‘fireworks’ as it lifts off with some authority. Traders the world over are watching for this triggering event to pile some positions on! I’m tellin’ ya!

(I’ll try to get one more in before I’m off-line for almost the next 2 entire weeks.)

Harold

I Skeered!

Tuesday, February 13, 9:38 pm EST. Well, did I call it? Really can’t say. Sure, the prices turned back up, just about right on cue, as I did call it just a little ways back… but, where did the volume go?

Prices rose today for 9 of the symbols, but declined for 7. And, volume fell off to be some 35% below its own 50-day avg.

The question becomes, then, “So, is this just that little pause that refreshes?” You’ll probably find out before I will, as I will be gone by this time tomorrow.

I’ll get back as I might be able, otherwise… I won’t before Tuesday the 27th! I will sure be interested in how things went between now and then… and, as always, I’ll have some kind of an opinion of it all, too.

Harold

Did It? Or, Didn’t It???

Monday, February 12, 7:42 pm EST. In 48 hours I will be gone! So, what about today? Truthfully, you’re always happy to see better prices, right? Well, generally yes, but on a day like today, when you’re looking for the possible upside reversal… you’d also like to see that take place on some serious volume, indicative of conviction behind the traders’ and investors’ purchases.

And, I’d have to say, that’s pretty much what we’ve got here! The volume level just qualifies as possibly saying that this was the real deal. Friday’s was huge, but that also could have qualified as the ‘washout’ day when a great many threw in the towel and gave up.

Time is going to tell, but the story the price and volume chart appears to be saying is that Friday was a washout, and Monday may have confirmed the intra-day reversal of Friday, and commenced a genuine rally. It certainly does remain to be seen, of course, and it will tell us soon enough… but, I’m going to have to leave it alone as of Wednesday, and catch back up again, after I return… almost 2 weeks later. Sorry ’bout that, but it has to be done, and I wouldn’t turn this opportunity down for anything!

What can I say? You’re getting as much value as you’ve paid for it!

Harold

Is It About to Launch?

Saturday, February 10. ‘Bout everything I’m looking at by way of charts, and most technical indicators, are saying to me that a likely bottom and lo-risk market entry is immanent… close at hand. My OEXpert 7 timer has not called it yet, and could use some more flat to downside price action. But, indicators like RSI, Stochastics, and my favorite, the P3 Squeeze, are all getting right into place, and are saying to me… Get ready, cuz here it comes! I wish that my Xpert was on board with its 7 indicators, as I would be pounding the table right about now!

But, the thing is… I’m seeing the same thing with stocks, too. It’s looking and feeling to me like we are right on the cusp of new rallies in both stocks and the metals. I leave Wednesday the 14th, and I won’t be back here before Tuesday the 27th… so, I won’t likely even be able to learn what’s going on, because of the backwardness of where I’m headed, but I’ll get the whole story, and back up to speed right after I return.

So, I’m going to call it… I think things reverse course, and commence new rallies as early as in the next week, and I may even get to see the launch before I leave! Now, let’s see if I still have any of that old mojo I used to have working so well for me all these years!

Harold

Enjoying the Ride?

Friday, 2/9, 6:42 am EST. Enjoying the ride? What’s to enjoy? Everything, and everyone, seems to have lost their minds! Stocks more so than the metals and miners! It’s a madhouse!!!

Be patient. It’ll all settle out soon enough, and some new course will be charted… or, maybe even the same old course!

What did the metals and miners do Thursday the 8th? As I look ONLY at gold, I see, thru GLD, that it hit serious overhead resistance back on 24th and 25th of January, and got hurled back. The decline from there has been very well contained, and is right now sitting on the first level of near-term support in the $125 area. It’s actually still a very fine looking Bull Market correction. Yes, I said, and I mean, BULL market. In hindsight, gold commenced a new bull market back in the middle of December of ’15. Despite all gyrations since, the general price chart pattern has been one of higher lows, and the formation of one major bullish wedge… It starts in December of ’15, tops for the first time in July/August of ’16… finds a new bottom in December of ’16, and that run tops out in September of ’17. We’ve just bottomed again last December, on the 12th and 13th, and now… we’ve most recently topped at that resistance place of 1/24 and 25… and, right now, we’re in the process of attempting to put in the next low or bottoming place, so as to launch… possibly THRU that resistance, which, if, and when, it does, should result in one grand rally that will give us some very fine profits. I believe we’re talking about possible multiples in some of our miners, as we did in the spring and summer of ’16.

Let me add that silver, while not as healthy looking, is still eking out a bullish price chart pattern. Looking at a longer-term price chart, a clear head-and-shoulders bottom formed around the mid-December ’15 low. The first top was early September of ’16. Next low was, again, in December of ’16. It double-topped in Feb and Apr of ’17. The December low of ’16 has proven to be tremendous support two more times, in July and last December of ’17. We are now halfway between the 1/24+25 resistance, and that same price support low from last December. Silver is also eking out a bullish wedge price pattern, and it mimics its bigger brother, gold, but with a great deal more volatility than gold. BUT, it’s the very same deal. Support is likely to remain and hold, and the next lift higher might well breakthrough the overhead resistance… and, if it does, silver will make for us a lot of wealth. I’m tellin’ ya… stay tuned!

It’s coming. We’ll be there and see it when it does, and we will go for that ride… Enjoy the ride!!!

Harold

 

Find Your Balance

Wednesday, February 7, 7:51 am EST. Goodness, the prices of everything are rapidly changing, both up and down, and… back again!!! Why?

The short, simple answer is that changes are taking place, and no one can say just how far, or short, these changes are going to take us. It’s affecting stocks, and the metals and their miners. But, if you’re following your prices, you certainly already know that!

I had thought that the upsetting of the stock markets the world over was going to give metals a real boost, but I didn’t see that happening, and then, when stocks decided they were going to really right themselves, and lift, Tuesday… well, you know what happened. Money came out of metals fast! And, so, here we are. Where are we???

I’d like to say, in a good place, but we have a very serious issue. I don’t know if anyone else sees it and is relating it, but gold is actually looking fairly healthy still, believe it or not, but silver is truly underperforming badly, and that’s never a good sign. And, so, I can’t feel good about the metals, or the miners, at this time. It’s just not supposed to work this way, if prices are going to go up. Silver rises to the occasion, and outperforms gold, almost always, when the metals heat up… so, current price action is disconcerting.

Markets often adjust and make changes with the coming of each new year. Often that change is foretelling of what the entire remainder of that new year will be like. If the first week is bullish, it’s not surprising if the first month is. If the first month is bullish, it is not at all unusual should the entire year end well. It’s true of stocks, and as an asset class, it’s often true for the metals, too.

Just tracking each of the 16 symbols I follow, I see that the first week was not bad, but it wasn’t particularly good either. And, for the entire first month… the same, truly flat, neither good nor bad.

But, just since this month started, it looks like an Amtrak train wreck… with fatalities!!! As with stocks, at this time, so with the metals and miners… the world is changing, and no one is yet sure what it is becoming, so we must go thru a spell of turmoil and upheaval, due to uncertainty. Is inflation rising, are rates going to continue to rise, is the economy going to truly expand bigly? What if all of these things don’t happen?

What if, instead… inflation remained low, rates didn’t need to rise, and the economy still expanded well? Hunh? And, why might I say that? I’m surmising here, but why does inflation have to rise? Well, you’ve got bonuses, pay raises, tax cuts to consumers, increased hiring, and increasing consumer confidence! How can all these not result in inflation? I can think of one huge reason, and I have yet to hear a soul mention it… why won’t the massive corporate tax cut, from 35% to 21% result in a spate of producer, wholesale and consumer price CUTS, which is deflation, offset the whole scare of rising inflation? Is there real capitalistic competition within our economy, or is there not? If corporate costs of doing business are being slashed, because corporate taxes, just another cost of doing business, is being greatly reduced… why is it thought it will only go down to the producer’s bottom line, and not result in some serious price cutting, right down to the consumer level, as all of these corporations compete for all these new bonus, pay raise, new hires, consumer tax cut, and increasingly confident consumers’ dollars???

I’m arguing for a true, Goldilocks economic scenario… which maybe just what the markets are trying to peer into the future and see, which is resulting in stocks wanting to recover so quickly, and for metals to slide again. In any case, here’s what I am looking for…

Metals are taking a beating, and the miners are getting hit even harder. They had bottomed, and done well out of 12/12+13, not two months back, but have been taking a bath since Jan 31. Stocks have gotten cRaZiLy volatile, trying to decide which way they’re going to go… and, the whole point is simply this: Uncertainty has gripped the markets, because the world economic/financial picture is taking a rather sharp turn, and no one knows just yet where it’s headed next, but the thinking may be coming around to where it may be perceived that it is actually going to be getting even better than anyone was previously thinking. IF, that should be what unfolds, stocks are going to soar. The metals will limp along somewhat, but continue to take a back seat… and, yesterday was just one day where many are trying to make up their minds as to what they believe is going to happen, and is moving money around to line themselves up for their perceived scenario to unfold.

I do this. I have investable assets in both places, stocks and metals and their miners. It’s made me practically market neutral, as the ups and downs on both sides nearly even out! Plus, I’ve a slug of cash, not being roiled at all. And, since I’m hardly even about capital appreciation, but my major concern is for portfolio dividend income, and attaining unto a retirement income from investments goal (see here: https://dividendgrowthinvesting.wordpress.com/ ) I don’t much concern myself for any of this stuff. My wife and I are merrily moving forward toward that goal, and I don’t need to be doing this at all.

I do this for the impetus to keep my eye on a different asset class, and to maintain a proper level of ‘insurance’ against some kind of a blind side stock blowout. If, or when, stocks ever go through another meat grinder, my metals and their miners will be the saving of our bacon!

So, metals may go back into a bear hibernation, and disappoint every gold bug… I’d be disappointed, too. But, my stocks will soar, and my income goal will still be attained, and my ‘insurance’ will always remain in place. “Peace, Peace, Wonderful Peace”… My very favorite hymn.

Until all I’ve mentioned above has been determined and resolved, expect continued volatility… and, more from Washington will be coming forth to stir the pot, as well!

Be patient. Situate yourself appropriately, that you don’t get crushed, ever… and try to reason through what may be going on, and consider what the possible outcomes might be. That’s what I do, and though I’ll likely be wrong often, I suppose; I’m positioned to fare well, regardless… and it never affects my sleep negatively at any time. Find your balance.

Harold