Support is Holding… Barely!

Tuesday, March 20, 4:53 pm EST. Well, Tuesday is in the can, and gold and silver barely hung on to price support. I updated the timer, and everything is falling right into place, as far as market measures of risk is concerned. What’s it all mean? Well, it could very well mean that we are on the precipice… of either a new rally, or perhaps a breakdown.

The Fed may make moves and issue a statement that will affect it one or the other. So, let’s stick with it, and see what will come of things. I’m hopeful. I think we’re going to get a pleasant surprise… but, that’s just me. I’m always upbeat like that. But, I’m also realistic. If it doesn’t work out, I’ll be the first one to say so right here.

We live another day to watch and wait… it is said all good things come to people like us. Is that so? We’ll likely find out one day!



Not Looking Good!

Tuesday, March 20, 8:29 am EST. I can tell you this much… Gold and silver are each off 1/2 of 1% this morning, and that is not what we want to see at this time. That would likely be working on a breaking of current price support… which, if it is, could result in a spate of new selling coming into this market.

What we are in need of watching for today is a similar scenario as on Thursday, the 1st of March, when support was broken, but intra-day buying brought it back. If such a picture should be painted again today, we can be assured that very strong support exists under this market at these price levels… and, if not, well… that would not be pretty, I would expect.

So, let’s see what this day is going to bring. The technical indicators, in the timer, says that lo-risk is the prevailing sentiment expressed by the technicals… they’re not infallible, but they are very good. This day could be a very interesting one!


Que Pasa?

Monday, March 19, 9:19 pm EST. So, what’s happening? Gold was up a bit, and silver was flat.

Gold’s price support is holding. Silver’s is as well. I see the same with GDX, representing the gold miners. SGDM, the other gold mining fund is looking that way, too… all holding a price support. ABX had been climbing, but is going dead straight sideways for the fifth day in a row, after rising well. Hecla Mining must have had some bad news… it plunged. I’ll check on it in the morning.

Volume for all was just about average… only 9% shy of making its 50-day average. There’s nothing to note… perhaps in the morning there will be something.


Watchin’ Closely

Monday, March 19, 6:55 am EST. Overnight overseas over-the-weekend, prices were off a bit, but even as I checked in on them a couple of times, after that first time, they kept coming back towards Friday’s close, returning to where they’d come from.

It’s in that area of price support, as charted in $USD. Let’s see what’s going to come of it. I’ll enter the Friday data into the timer, and see if there’s anything to be said of the indicators in it.


Sittin’ On Support!

Saturday, March 17, 9:33 pm EST. Well, IF I’ve been drawing my lines right, and I feel quite certain, to date, that I have. I see the price of gold as sitting right on its support at $124.60 for GLD. If anyone thinks differently, write to tell me about it.

Silver’s pretty much doing the same, and the volume I’m seeing in some of these silver miners for Friday was BIG. Going thru nearly all the charts… big volume moves. And, the 800 lb. gorilla, ABX, closed up on big volume. Interestingly, big volume, in the bigger picture for all 16 symbols, means that it was only 6.5% off of its 50-day avg. of volume, and not the huge decline in volume I’d been seeing and noting of late, where it was less than half the usual.

So, I’ll need to update the timer, but this is getting right to that place I’d been talking about, that another lo-risk entry may be about to show itself. Could this be it? I’m going to have to give a little more time to doing some more research, but I’m thinking it is. This would be the lull before the storm, and nail-biting time. Will it find support right here, and lift off, or will it fail, and break hearts the world over… again?

I’m going to give it a harder look, as I have time, soon. I’ve always been the glass-is-half-full, optimistic kind of guy, so I’m always going to think it’s going to launch… so, I’m always in need of that reason from somewhere else as to why it might not. What might that be? More later….


It’s a True Yawner!

Thursday, March 15, 7:14 am EST. Dug out of the fresh 15+” of snow… or however much that was. And, the metals and miners? Does anybody care? Of course, we do! But, now we’re wanting for nobody else to, so that price settles at support, and all the technical indicators are saying that risk has been largely wrung out. That seems to be where all this is going.

The metals barely moved Wednesday… gold off just .06%, and silver not at all! And volume on GLD and SLV is off on both by, get this now, more than 50% below their own 50-day averages! This market is being lulled to sleep… if not to death!

As for the miners, mining funds and royalty firms; the other 14 symbols… there was a real turn of sorts, that I noted, back on Thursday the 1st, two weeks ago. Support broke on volume, but was regained that same day, and has been kept sacrosanct since. Volume has so dried up, that Wednesday’s was 49% below its own 50-day average for all 16 symbols… it is DEAD!

And, that is just what we want! I’ll update the timer again, and see if it’s saying anything to me, but I would think that risk is leaking out like a helium balloon that sits on your ceiling for days, and then, ever so slowing, starts to make its way to the floor over a few days time.


8:01 update. I’ve updated the timer. Price being flat, and the lo-risk signal already having been put in, and the indicators largely hovering toward their lower ranges… risk in the metals and miners is really quite low, and all that is needed is some catalyst to kick a rally off. I expect we’ll see one, too… it’s just a matter of time! hang in there… it’ll happen!


Bears Close Scrutiny

Tuesday, March 13, 4:21 pm EST. Gold rose a smidge, and silver closed flat, but most of the miners rose, and some by a goodly amount, too! That could be telling. Let me check on their volume.

Nope. Volume was absolutely pitiful! Only SSRM saw any appreciable volume growth, and that was by 12%, and its price gained nearly 5%!

So, what I see is that the miners are starting to gear up a bit for a run at it, but the metals aren’t doing anything yet. If the 800 lb. gorilla, ABX, is any indication, its chart is saying that there’s an institutional interest in adding some shares while it’s truly beaten down. Two other larger names, CDE and HL, are giving that same vibe. They would appear to be generating a greater interest just now; more than their smaller brethren.

We’ll continue to wait and watch… this could grow into something. A fire could be lit yet. You never can quite know. But, we’ll try to stay right on top of things, and we’ll catch it, if it does!


Are We There Yet, Are We There Yet?

Tuesday, March 13, 8:13 am EST. So, we’re getting whacked again with another snow storm. Whohoo!!! So, where are the metals and miners at?

I wrote nothing of Friday or Monday… because there was too little to bother to write about… and that is GOOD! Whenever a market goes dull with silence, so much so that seemingly no one is even paying any attention to it anymore… risk is silently ‘draining’ out of that market. How do I know that’s happening? Volume. Volume is drying up, and price is moving sideways along support on dwindling volume. This is the windup! Get ready for the launch.

I’ll update the timer, I’ll review all the charts… First, the charts. Gold is going sideways along the support level bottom of a channel. This channel is even tightening a little, as a wedge would do. We must stay right on top of this, and pay closer attention… opportunity may come knocking soon! And, silver? Same thing!

Get this now… Gold is outperforming silver, and both are outperforming the miners. This would be bear market activity, but it is also risk-depleting activity within a bull market, and that’s what we have going on here. Only if everything were to break down, and the ‘wheels come off the cart’ here, would we have to declare a bear market is actually the right interpretation of what’s going on. I don’t see that here. I see risk leaking out of a bull market… prices going sideways within a channel within a bull market.

And, the miners? Same kind of action. Support was challenged, even bent, but did not break, back on Thursday the first… since then, that support level has held. Prices have pretty much gone sideways, and volume has lessened. It is setting up for what may well be a beautiful rally to come. That’s my hope, and I see plenty good enough reason for it, setting up in the charts. Ever the optimist? I am! But, I think it’s justified. Now, let’s see if it proves me to have been correct, or mistaken.


12:21 pm EST update. FWIW, I updated the timer, and it is much closer to its lo-risk entry signal, than it is to anything saying there’s high risk. This is a place where a speculative position could be put on, if one were of the gambler-type, and just kept it on a short leash… put a tight stop under it. I won’t, but I could see someone trying to. The risk/reward ratio looks like it could be quite positive.



Friday, March 9, 7:54 am EST. I surprised myself. Last post was Tuesday? It was boring. I saw nothing happening, and I didn’t write. Well, that and we got pounded with a snow storm….

It was a week ago that support was broken intra-day, but that buying came it to save it. Since then, Friday, Monday and Tuesday was giving us reason to have some hope… but, since then, Wednesday and Thursday, everything has just petered out. Gold has been slumping back, on ever lightening volume, and silver has been doing very much the same. And, what of the miners?

Well, they’ve all been doing the same thing… sliding back on lowering volume. Average volume for all symbols was off 46%! Everyone’s watching and waiting, just was I am. It bears pointing out that only gold is in a truly bullish formation, price being above an uptrending 200-day, and typically doing well as it concerns its 50-day, which is also above the 200-day. It’s everything else, from silver on down thru the miners and funds that are generally considered to be bearish, in that their 50 and 200-day mov avgs are not in uptrends, with the 50 typically under the 200. And, that would be because price is under their averages.

Nevertheless, on the technical basis of lines drawn for support and resistance, with the lower support lines going back to December of ’15, the more accurate picture is that of a Bull Market that was born then, which peaked in August of ’16… corrected into December of ’16, above the 12/15 lows, and has been eking out a sideways channel ever since, for the past near 15 months. Prices are at the very low end of this channel, and that support was challenged and held Thursday just last week. I’ll update the timer, but the indicators are all beginning to settle back in, as well. There’s going to be a bigger move… up, or down. Support will hold, and a rally ensue, or it will fail, and the bottom fall out to the December ’15 lows. But, I’m betting on the move least expected… is anyone paying any attention to the metals? Volume would suggest they are not.



Tuesday, March 6, 4:27 pm EST. It was a good day today! I could get a bit of a sense of it this morning. When I first looked in and wrote, I saw that prices had been pretty much flat, with no sense of direction being given since… Thursday?

Then, even as I was updating the timer, and noticed that it was ever so close to giving a signal, and at the same time prices were just commencing to lift… I wrote that it would be possible to put on a speculative position, if one was so inclined. Whether you did, or you didn’t, if you keep an investment position in place at all times, it was a good day today.

So, it’s time to examine charts for price and volume. There had been indecision previously. The question becomes, what have we got now?

Looking only at GLD, we are now halfway between support and resistance, and volume was right on its own 50-day average… meaning we got a goodly lift today, but not on any particular conviction. The same could be said for the price of SLV, but the volume was 31% above its own 50-day avg, and so we can say that we see something of considerable conviction there. Price is halfway between serious support and resistance, but is right at all of the near-term resistance of its own 50 and 200-day moving averages; which is right where it was turned back from intra-day today. So, we do have some kind of a clue, and a thing to watch. It would be most helpful if it could breakthrough. It was turned back from its 200-day in mid-February. Will it breakthrough this time? And, what of all the mining symbols?

What I think I am looking at is that support has held after the big threat to it last week, and there’s a lot of overhead to work through. However, both gold and silver are showing greater relative strength than their miners, and if they should commence to lead a new way higher, the miners will almost certainly catch fire, catch up to the metals, and really outperform. That’s what we hope to see. Will it happen anytime soon, or in this year? I don’t know, and I can’t say… but, this: When it does ocurr, I have every intention of being there, and profiting BIGLY! Let’s watch for it together.