Total Weirdness!

Monday, June 26, 5:52 pm EST. So, about 4:00 am this morning, a massive gold sale went through, knocking the price back by some $20… then, throughout the day today, the price of gold slowly worked its way back, to close off earlier by only $12.10, or .96%. Pretty bad, you’d think. I though for sure that miners would get smashed hugely today… au contrare, mon ami! Mining stocks closed off only a little bit… an average of all I follow was off .56%. Scary, hunh? Not really.

In any case, I’m going to update the timer, and hope that we can flounder around for a while longer, and the technical measures of risk can get to their respective signaling places, if they would. Still expecting it set-up for a goodly trade in the not-too-distant future!




Monday, June 26, 6:17 am. Wow! What a shocker to go online this morning, and see that gold had taken a rather precipitous plunge of some $14.80, or 1.18%!

I was no believer in the most recent ‘rally’ that looked to be kicking off last week, as you know.

Now, I love what I am seeing, as this could result in a true vomiting up of shares, and the putting into place of a genuinely tradable bottom. That remains to be seen, of course, but I would like for the May, March or December lows to remain intact, and also to be an excellent entry point.

After today, if this should play out as I would hope, to be updating the timer… and maybe all the indicators will be falling into place shortly!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Any Good Reason?

Saturday, June 24, 1:35 pm EST. Had received a reply from a reader mentioning certain technical indicators, including a special favorite of mine, that I had not looked at in some time… called the P3 Squeeze. I won’t try to explain it here and now, but I went through my charts on the site, where I have a default setting having this P3 Squeeze set-up programmed in it. I had promised this reader that I’d look for any P3 Squeezes indicating a near certain price reversal to the upside.

I went through all the gold miner, royalty firms, ETFs, and the metals themselves, in the form of the GLD and SLV funds. Whereas, I had seen plenty of P3 Squeeze signals around the previous December, March and early May lows… I could find no such P3 Squeeze signals among my charts for this most recent turn in price that commenced this past week. None.

This only serves to reinforce my current opinion that we just don’t have anything here to be getting excited about yet, and I’m currently thinking that unless something should light a fire under the metals markets, so that we see further price increases taking place with some real trader and investor involvement pushing prices on expanding volume… I’ll remain wary and uncommitted.


Is It? IS IT?!?!?

Friday, June 23, 9:08 pm EST. So, is it the real deal? Is it the rally we’ve been waiting for? Should we back up the truck, and load up? Is it time to put it all out there?

Prices did well today! And, volume… well, volume improved too… a little… a very little. How little? Whereas volume was off by 26% from the 50-day average Thursday… it was off by 21% today, Friday, from that 50-day average. Or, in other words, there appeared to be some more participation… maybe, but very little more. Certainly not enough more that I could tell anyone that this was that opportunity we’ve all been waiting for. Because the evidence is in, and the evidence says… this is still a yawner, and anyone willing to risk a trade had better be ready to bail speedily, as it’s not beginning to show the kind of life that would say, “Hey, look at me! I’m pulling out of the station, and you’d better be climbing on board, or you’ll miss the train!” Nope. I’d rather wait… maybe even for a whole ‘nother opportunity.

I’ll let what I have in remain there, but I’ll not commit anything more yet. Perhaps Monday will have more to say, but this week evoked no confidence from out of me!

What’s anyone else got to say about it?


It Is Looking Good!

Friday, June 23, 6:27 am EST. Ladies and gentlemen, the metals are up significantly overnight overseas… significantly! This could very well be the start of a real rally. Volume must swell. Investors and traders must start piling in. If you don’t see an increase in participation, the level of the risk of failure is high.

But, if the volume swells considerably more than it has been of late, it’s a potentially; even a probably good opportunity, right here, to take a position, get on-board, and go for a ride.

I’m on my last day of vacation, willing be packing, and returning home today. I won’t be paying any attention throughout the day, in all likelihood… so, I will conduct my analysis over the weekend, and making a decision. Come Monday, I may be pulling the trigger, myself… or, as I am a relatively cautious and patient type, I may still hold back.

But, any of you real and serious traders out there… take a good, long, hard look, and decide whether today might not provide that opportunity we have been looking for.

A good increase in price, on truly significant volume, will be the catalyst and entry signal. And, if you don’t act then, you wait for the follow-through confirmation to follow.


Do We Pull the Trigger?

Thursday, June 22, 7:09 pm EST. Metals look pretty good, and the miners did real well! Does it mean anything? Well, I’d want to look at the charts, the volume and the timing indicators….

The prices rose well. Volume did expand… somewhat. Remember, Wednesday, it was some 42% below the 50-day average. Well, for Thursday, it was greater, but still 26% below the average. I haven’t updated the timer. Don’t really need to. The indicators are not likely to have gotten any closer, so I’ll update after I’ve gotten back home off my vacation Friday.

What do we make of it? Well, prices have continued a bit higher overseas, since the US close. Anyone wanting to give it a go should only do so with the utmost of caution, as there is just no fire lit under this ‘lift-off’… such as it is. I don’t have any real confidence in it, and I won’t until volume were to expand to at least something above the 50-day average.




Watch Carefully!

Thursday, June 22, 7:09 am EST. Metals are definitely up enough overseas this morning, that we need to start paying closer attention to the price action of the metals and miners today. We could be on the cusp of a significant turning point here.

It’s simple. If price and volume increase a goodly amount… join in, but with a tight stop, in case it’s not real. Or, wait for confirmation, by way of a later follow-through. A person could do both, and treat both entries with the appropriate safety precautions.

I’m still away on vacation, and am likely to look back in sometime late, as we have an evening dinner date out. If not tonite, then Friday morning.


8:38 am EST. A look in on our market in the metals, after it opened, shows the metals, especially silver, even higher. This could be that turning point worth jumping on! Some of you will……… look for volume to expand first!


Is It Already Here?

Wednesday, June 21, &:32 pm EST. Today, gold rose, but silver declined… this evening, though, both are up a little better than .2%. Movement may appear to be taking place. I need to go to the charts, and look at price and volume. IF the miners are moving ahead of the metals, AND there’s any significant improvement in volume behind that… IT may be here. To the charts!

Alright. I got this! Prices DID move up well today, ahead of the metals. But, there was NO volume behind it to speak of. In fact, rather, volume was off by 42% of the 50-day average.

Let’s note where prices are in the morning, and then, we may get some better idea. If the miners have a good outing, and volume should swell considerably… It might be well worth the risk to try to step up and take new positions.


On Watch

Wednesday, June 21, 6:38 am EST. The metals are up overnight overseas. We don’t want it to lift yet… would love to see more down to sideways price action, but we never get to tell the market what to do.

It’s not so much that it’s saying… This is it! But, we must remain on watch, and ready to act. I’m away on vacation for the week, but I have a laptop and an internet connection. I’ll get back after the close.


Steady As She Goes

Tuesday, June 20, 5:53 pm EST. It’s happening! The price is reaching, and is now close to, my price objective in the vicinity of $118, and the indicators are beginning to fall into place!

F1 is marginally there now! F2 needs one more day. F3, 4 and 5 will require more time, but F6 is close, and could marginally signal in one more day. So, as I have been saying, if this can continue, I could see this setting up a lo-risk entry signal before this week is out. Let’s keep watching and waiting, as the time would appear to be drawing near. Will it be for real?