Say What You Want, But This is Good!

Wednesday, July 18, 7:06 am EST. Well, if the lines of price support I was writing about in recent posts, which failed and gave way yesterday, were just what I had said they were… then, the next most obvious action would be that such selling would likely beget more selling… as others give up, throw in the towel, and get out! That would appear to be what is happening now. Prices are off a pretty good amount overnight… Gold’s off .4% and silver another .9%.

Some new price bottom is going to have to be found. Technical price action has been damaged. That which was believed would be support, and that it would hold… as I had thought, too… is no longer applicable. Support broke. It’s likely now that some time is going to be needed to repair the technical damage… And, this previous support is now to likely become future overhead resistance.

So, this is good. More are getting out. They’re selling, taking their loss, and moving on. Some may never come back. As I’ve said before. The harder it becomes, and the more get out and go away, the greater the future gains, when the real rally should commence. It now appears that the real rally is going to be commencing… from a lower price level than was previously thought. O, well…. I’ll watch, and I’ll wait.

I want to participate in one real Bull Market in the metals in my lifetime, if I can. I learned that the metals are just about the most cyclical, and volatile industry group of them all, and I’ve also learned that those who are any good at all in involving themselves in the ‘investment’ and trading of such a volatile and cyclical group, can make fantastic returns, and create fabulous wealth. With a portion of that which I have, I am hoping to catch one such ride as that… pretty much for the fun of it, I suppose, as I don’t actually need to, at all!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Advertisements

Am I Dead?

Tuesday, July 17, 5:18 pm EST. If you were to ask me to explain it… I couldn’t. I, like, totally, don’t get it!

Gold and silver fell hard, but I don’t see it in the miners or mining funds! PVG is okay. Nothing wrong with WPM. CDE’s hanging on. RGLD’s alright. SSRM’s shrugging. GDX rose! SGDM did, too!

GLD broke the long support line. So, the best sense I can make of it at this point, is to draw a horizontal line that pretty well connects the lows of 5/16, 3/17, 5/17 and 7/17. It’s a perfect picture, but the best I’m able to figure at this point in time. Since GLD closed at $116.28, and this ‘support’ that I think exists is at $115.00, the stop for this decline may be relatively close at hand. After that, we’d have to go to the December ’16 low? That would be hard to take….

Let’s move on… SILJ doesn’t look well. I don’t own any, just follow it. Silver’s support, as I graph SLV, is broken, like gold’s is. The 7/11/17 low is still intact, and is the only logical last line of defense, before we go way back to when this bull market started in December of ’15. We’re looking at a $14.43 level now, with SLV presently at $14.67… not all that much further.

FSM is okay. ABX is not hurting. PAAS has been falling pretty hard. NUGT got dumped big time… volume was massive, but the support level was not violated. AG got stung, but not torched! Finally, HL is still in the game, and barely hanging on, but it’s not down and out.

In general, the miners have fared far better than the metals themselves… Why is that? There’s still life. It’s not dead yet, but it sure is getting to look more like a zombie state!

The improvement in things I had noted, somewhat in hindsight, and going back specifically to the date of 3/20… remember? That improving condition lasted until 6/14. Since 6/14, it’s been a decidedly bearish condition, which looked to attempt to reversed with the 6/28-7/2 time frame. That only lasted or worked thru 7/9 for about 1 week… since then, it’s become quite unraveled, and there’s a real need to sit back, and take something of a jaundiced look at the whole situation, and realize that this make take some time to sort out, and ultimately right itself… but, the question now becomes where? At what level? I think my job just got a whole lot harder!

Harold

 

BOOM!

Tuesday, July 17, 2:13 pm EST… Wow! Wow! WOW!!! The metals are taking the pipe! Important levels of price support have been broken!

I’ll look right into it all, and write it all up later, but, the very levels of support I identified, were being watch by many everywhere… and, when they were broken… SMASH! BOOM! POW!!! What’s next? We’ll read the charts, price and volume, and start watching for whatever opportunity will come… when it comes.

_________________________

What?!?!?!? 2:18 pm EST. Just looked in on my gold miners and funds, and… nearly half of them are UP on the day! What is THIS??? I’m sure I don’t know. More later!

Harold

 

All the World Awaits with Bated Breath!

Tuesday, July 17, 4:22 am EST. The world came to an end while I was sleeping last night… and, I missed it!

No, not really. I made some coffee, logged on, checked on the precious metals and how they were trading overseas in the wee hours of our morning here, and was most pleasantly surprised to learn that they had stepped back from the brink of the abyss by an amount that signifies to me that price support is holding. It probably would not hurt in the least, and might be fun to check in on whether the technical indicators in the OEXpert 7 Market Timing Program has gotten a feel for this market, and is saying there would appear to be very little risk right here… I’ll do that and report back with an update on this same post later.

But, before I do, a look at the symbols within the technical parameters I’ve set up in stockcharts.com has me kind of excited. I’m looking at the chart for the gold ETF, GLD, and it is very promising, to my mind. First, RSI went oversold under 30 at this price level in June, and early July. But, RSI is presently a bit higher, while price has fallen back to that same level. That is called a divergence, and is a bullish one in this instance. Next, the Slow Stochastic is at an oversold reading of 14. Third, the two indicators, PPO and ADX are coming together, in what has come to be called the P3 Squeeze, and that tends to be a very good predictor of a soon rally to come with most any security that creates that signal. And, fourth, the Acc/Dist line has begun to turn up before price has. So, what have we here? The technicals I rely upon within stockcharts.com are telling me this level of price support is more likely to hold, than not, and that perhaps a new rally may be immanent. Wouldn’t that be nice? I wish I could say that the ETF for silver, SLV, was mirroring gold, and saying the very same thing, but I can’t get that vibe from the SLV chart. And, just to be completely honest, the mining shares and mining fund charts don’t say the same either… only GLD. Might that be enough???

Back in a bit with the timer’s outlook.

_____________________________

5:15 am EST update. Inputting all back data into the OEXpert Timer, I can say this about each of the 7 indicators within the 26 year-old program that I run on a dedicated XP machine that will NEVER go online… Price is at the lowest of its 2 lower trading bands, and is also the same place price was at when it last put in an important bottom back in December. That’s a signal. F1 isn’t fast enough to keep up, and is out of whack. It’s not signaling, and would require some time to do so. F2, on the other hand, is the fastest, and it is signaling. It’s also the least reliable and helpful. F3 is about the slowest and most reliable, and it is close to a new signal, registering a 12, where 10 signals. F4 is very close to re-signaling, too. F5, at 33, is signaling. And, F6 reads an 8, and that is a signal!

I am very content with what I am looking at. I believe that support is holding, and will succeed in doing so. This would sure look like a great low-risk opportunity!

Harold

Critical!

Monday, July 16, 9:52 pm EST. Well, the metals are right on the edge. Support has been holding right up until now… and, now, it is bending… will it break? Inquiring minds want to know!

I’m going to bed. In the morning, I’ll check on it again, and write whatever needs to be said… Will it be, Put a Fork In It?!?!?!?

Until Tuesday morning, friends.

Harold

Careful Is Good, Yes?

Wednesday, July 11, 8:54 pm EST. So, let the trade wars begin! Sheesh! Talk about an instant derailment of a possible potential rally in the metals and miners!!!

So, what about prices and volume? PVG, ok. AG, holding up decently. WPM, the same. Same for RGLD. So far, so good… GDX a bit ugly, but not bad. CDE making out alright.

Now GLD is just above that incredibly big support I wrote of awhile back. That line connects only the Dec. ’15 and Dec. ’16 bottoms before it got touched on 7/2… and we are incredibly close to it right now! Will it hold?

SGDM is rather ugly, but not too bad. SLV is at that very same place as it… and GLD were on 7/2, and so the question comes back again… will it hold?!?!?

SSRM looks pretty decent! SILJ got whacked and is very close to its support, even as SLV is. ABX is holding up decently. PAAS got hurt. It had been doing so well since 5/9, but it gave back a lot today, and on big volume, too. FSM looks a bit threatening, but is still ok. NUGT is like the other mining funds, and they’re somewhat ugly, but not too terribly bad. HL’s barely holding it’s own.

My take is that we’re at a crossroads. Something, somebody, somewhere has got to give. If this trade war business is going to interfere with the other markets in the manner it has begun to, then there’s no good reason to think the price support lines can hold, and we might witness a metals and miners smash as a result. OR, somebody might blink, and some kind of an agreement might be arrived at, and an immense relief rally might ensue.

We’ll, of course, all be right here on the front row to see it. May something truly wonderful come of it all!

Harold

Being Careful

Monday, July 9, 9:15 pm EST. I saw it right from the first half hour of the morning. It was a good pop at the open, followed by selling off. By the end of the day, many had closed lower than they had opened… even though the metals closed higher on the day. But, they too, had opened higher than they had closed, though not at a loss, like most of the miners. It was sort of a reversal of the recent action, where the miners had been doing considerably better than the metals.

The price action in most of the miners I look at was that of the bearish engulfing  candlestick, which is not a promising day’s action, but I’m not discouraged. We wait, and we watch… and we know precisely what it is that we are looking for… and, I pray I have the good sense to recognize it when I see it.

When this baby really starts to move… it is going to breakout, right through overhead resistance, and it is going to do so on expanding volume. It will tell us when to buy… and, I can’t tell gold, silver or the miners what to do.

But, they ‘talk’ to me. And, right now they’re saying… Someday, sometime, I’m going to give you just what you’re looking for… do you have the patience to wait me out, and do you have the guts to act, when the sign is right in front of your face? To which I reply… You just try me!

Harold

Pretty Cool, Huh?

Monday, July 9, 10:00 am EST. Was so busy last weekend, I never got to catch up and write. But, looking at what is transpiring right now… Things are moving in the direction we want, and that I had said that I thought it just might want to… and, so, for now, it is! That’s pretty cool!

Now, I will chart everything from Friday’s close, and look again, as to what they’re doing since the open, one half hour ago, and be looking for price moves on VOLUME, through resistance. It’s still a bit of a ways away for most symbols, but the activity in all of them, and especially those that are leading and breaking out, could be very telling. First, charts through Friday…

But, first, I recently did write that it appeared possible one could put on an early, but speculative risk position… if any of you did, you’re likely feeling pretty good right now!

What I said that I saw was that there had been some few days of incredibly positive price action in the mining shares that could not be attributed to the price action in the metals themselves, and that that sign was possibly very positive… and, so it is proving to be as a possible sign of some forthcoming rally. Friday’s stock price action only further served to continue my opinion on that point. Friday was Day 5 of that same positive stock action, contrary to the message coming from the metals, themselves.  That’s why I was saying there appeared to be more going on than met the eye. The metals were performing in one manner, while nearly all the stocks were performing in another, more bullish, manner… and, I wondered out loud, if that wasn’t meaningful. Today, it appears that it may have been.

So, I’ve looked at the charts from Friday’s perspective, as though today had not yet started. They adequately served to reinforce my early thesis. So what about today, now that it is about 10:20, and I have one half hour of price and volume data to look at? Well first of all, we’ve got a monster move of some 17% in PVG! Nice moves in most everything else, too, but that a lot of the earliest gain is being given back… as of 10:00 a.m. That’s fine. I’m not a nervous trader type. I’m waiting until much closer to the end of the day, and may get back then, to report how the day had been going, or even after the close, to chart and note what took place during all the day. There is NO rush, NO hurry, and I won’t be rushed…. We need a convincing price breakout on volume, and until I see that, I’m going to watch, and keep my cool! That’s pretty cool!


Quick 10:35 update, looking at data from 10:15. Things look to be trading at today’s lows, so far. A lot is being given back… we’ll see how it all shake’s out in the end….

Harold

Signs of Life!

Thursday, July 5, 7:31 pm EST. Looking over all the charts, all I can say is that the past 4 trading days are trying to give off this idea that there are signs of life stirring within the metals and miners, and that we need to stay right on top of the situation, just in case it should actually turn into something.

Like I previously said, the very most daring among you could put on a position, and put a tight stop under it, if you feel so inclined. I’m not going to, but I am going to stay on top of this, and make a call, should a breakout up through overhead resistance take place, accompanied by any meaningful volume.

It’s not dead, and it’s not truly alive yet either, but a faint spark, a hope of life exists, and if it can be fanned into a flame, we’ll get in on that!

Harold

Last Post Today… I Promise!

Wednesday, July 4, 9:23 am EST. Updated the OEXpert 7 Market Timer with the past week’s data, and here is what I’ve got.

The price of GLD is at or below the lowest of its 2 trading bands, and that is a signal. F1 is at 8, and has begun to rise, and that is a signal. F2 is at -4, and that constitutes a signal, and it is also rising. F3 is at 4, and has signaled, and it is trying to commence a turn upward. F4 is at a -4.5, and that is also a signal, and it has turned upward. F5 is at 32, which is under 40, and a signal, and has turned up. Finally, F6 is at 6, and is also on its way up. That’s a signal.

All 7 indicators, from price and F1 thru F6, are all in the camp of saying that market risk for GLD would appear to have been pretty much all wrung out, and that, on top of everything else I have already posted today, and since last week, pretty much says that a real trading opportunity may be right here. It would be worth a try, as you are able to put a very short leash on this trade, and should prices fall back, and price support fail, it would be… Look out below!

So, in any case, I can find NO reason within anything technical that I look at, not to believe that some kind of an opportunity may be at hand. I’m not going to do a thing about it, but to watch. The most daring and nimble among you may want to take a chance here, and to try to take advantage of what might be a real profit-maker, should it turn out.

And, what might be going on here? What might be the issue this is all turning on? I sometimes like to take a guess at that… and, I think it is the fear of full-blown trade tariffs going into place between goods made and shipped between China and the United States; a trade war. But, and I like to do this, I like to think in a totally contrary manner, and here is what I believe until I am proven wrong. I believe a lot of negotiations are going on right now behind the scenes, and I believe that on Friday, one of two things will happen. I believe tariffs will be announced, the world will hold its collective breath, and then the impasse will be broken… Or, I believe that just as the tariff announcement is to be made, it will be announced that an agreement has been struck, and all the world is going to breath this giant collective sigh of relief. But, that’s just me. I’m a glass-is-half-full kind of guy. I’m an optimist, and I believe something good is going to come forth. Stocks will rally like crazy, and any risk capital in metals may come out, BUT, I also believe that other capital will also enter metals to hold support, but for reasons of inflationary concern, as well as a real increase in physical demand for jewelry and industrial purposes… since world-wide economic disaster has been averted, and a ton of new global wealth is just then being created, as well as renewed economic activity to result in growth. You watch… I’ll either be colossally right, or incredibly mistaken.

It doesn’t matter to me. To me, it’s all like a game, and I have my pieces in place everywhere, in stocks, metals, cash… I’m good. I’m ready. Where are you at, and what are you doing?

Harold