Last Post for A While

Wednesday, October 18, 6:01 pm EST. The metals and miners had yet another off day today. Not much, and the volume was even lower, being off by all of 42% from it own 50-day average for all 16 symbols I track. It’s truly pitiful.

I updated the timer, and the indicators are beginning to head back down, after having launched off of their respective signaling places early last week.

I’m away thru the 30th, best I can tell. Take good care of yourselves. I’ll update and resume when I return, and try to determine where things are at, and whether we have any reason to be optimistic about a true money-making rally from out of a technically significant bottom in the metals and miners. ‘Til then….

Harold F Crowell


Wednesday, October 18, 8:53 am EST. When did I call it? About Friday, October 6? And, when did I get in? It was Tuesday October 10. I got out Tuesday the 17th, with a small loss. The metals didn’t rally well out of the July bottom around the 10th, and they have been unimpressive during this most recent ‘rally,’ as well. These past couple of down days have pretty much already taken away anything that last ‘rally’ had given. It’s not looking healthy, and the concerns about the metals, as far as interest rates and dollar strength go, is what is holding them back… for the time being.

I’ll update the timer with the last of the data… I must be away from this blog, beginning Thursday the 19th. I do not expect to be back to post anything here before Tuesday, October 31. If anything should happen, I won’t be commenting on it here. May the result be a real set-up in which we will be able to make goodly trading gains!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

And, Tuesday was No Better!

Tuesday, October 17, 6:55 pm EST. I bought a trading position in NUGT one week ago, and sold it today. I took a 7.46% loss on the trade. The metals had bottomed, as the technicals had indicated, but the ‘rally’ was never real. Traders and investors just did not jump onto it, and drive it ahead. I bailed. If you got in, you’ve probably sold, too.

I’m away the 19th thru the 30th. I’m still awaiting word as to whether there actually will be internet there… I am suspecting not.

I’m hoping no big opportunity arises and passes me right by, all because I wasn’t there to catch it. I will look at the charts, and update the timer, and report back later, before I leave… hopefully.


Monday Stunk!

Tuesday, October 17, 7:51 am EST. Well, I asked if Monday we would get a goodly lift, and we did not. I have noted that volume was nowhere to be found, and that I was not excited about taking a position in this market, though I identified a technical bottom in it. I was wanting to wait and see if there would be a confirmation, and there has not been yet… my small trading position in NUGT is off by 6%. I’m getting ready to pull the trigger early.

Now, I see that gold is off $5.60 overnight, and I am almost certainly going to have to get out of my trade today, as I do not hang on to such things and let them hurt me, if they are not going in the anticipated direction… at least, that’s what disciplined traders do. If the trade’s not working, you bail, pure and simple!

There are lots of ugly bearish candlesticks on expanding volume. Yes, we wanted expanding volume… but with prices moving to the upside, not down! Hopes for this ‘rally’ are just about shot as of right now. I’ve a busy morning, but as soon as I can get back to the desk, and look in on the market, I’ll almost certainly sell and cut my loss short.


It’s now 10:39 am EST, and I have sold my NUGT position for a small loss. Better luck next time! If we ever catch a true rally, and I’ll probably wait until there is one that confirms on volume, we’ll make a very large amount of money. Just not this time, I guess……..


Will We Get a Goodly Lift?

Monday, October 16, 6:36 am EST. Metals prices are up slightly overseas. There is a ‘rally’ going on. It is ever-so-weak, but it doesn’t have to stay that way. My own trading position, acquired last Tuesday in the morning, is not profitable. It is off by .82%. I’ve been informed by others that they got better prices, and have some profit.

I’m going to give it today, Tuesday and Wednesday, at the very most, then I must pull the plug… unless, some BIG volume move up were to take place, in which case, I would give serious consideration to letting it ride.

I will not be posting 10/19 thru 10/30. I will catch everything back up, when I am able.


Will the Metals Rally?

Saturday, October 14, 10:08 am EST. There is no doubt that the timer nailed the most recent low, as it did last July. I ‘hated’ that last rally, which ended by September 8, and backed down for the entire next month, because I never saw any conviction on the part of traders behind it, in the form of any pick-up in volume.

Well, we’ve gotten a signal a week ago, and the market has turned up. It’s rising, just as that signal had indicated, but… once again, volume is just not any part of this equation yet. Friday’s average volume for the 16 symbols I track was off by 31% from its own 50-day average volume. Rallies do not live without some life being injected into them by means of increasing volume.

We can say this much though… the average price of our 16 symbols is in an uptrend. That uptrend is above its own uptrending 50-day moving average, which, in turn is also above the uptrending 200-day moving average. At the very least, it can be said that the metals and miners are in a bull market. Beyond that, the price chart for all 16 forms a bullish head-and-shoulders bottom, with the bottom of the head being December 20 of last year, the left shoulder formed by November 14, and the right shoulder by March 9 of this year. That right shoulder then became a bullish double-bottom event by May 4, which has not been violated since.

Another bullish chart pattern is that a wedge had been being formed from successively lower tops, the dates of those being 11/9/16, 2/8/17, 4/13, 8/1, and all the dates 8/10 thru 8/24. The wedge was broken out of on 8/25, but with an indecisive Doji candlestick. However, that indecision was decided upon the very next trading day, when on 8/28, they rocketed up. A line drawn thru all of those top dates just listed, formed a level of price support, once price broke out 8/25. This brings up the next bullish piece.

Since the 9/7+8 top, price had been falling back for all of September, and into October, until we called the bottom by means of the timer by 10/6. That price decline found that line of price support that connected all the previous tops to be perfect support on 10/2, but it still did not launch, and then as price slipped back just a bit more, to get all our indicators in place… price found it’s own 200-day moving average to be that most recent place of perfect price support. In other words, all the chart evidence suggests that at some point here, possibly in the very near future, the precious metals and their miners are going to take off.

There’s more of a bullish case to be made… Commodities in general have been in a bear market for some years now, but that seems to be reversing at this very point in time. This is true of copper, and other base metals and basic materials, and it may also be coming true now of oil as well, as the case for higher oil prices is beginning to be made at this time.

I’m talking myself into leaving my trade in place for the near two weeks I’m going to be off-line! That’s really not wise, and unless I saw evidence Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, that this ‘rally’ was actually developing some serious ‘legs’, as they call it, I’ll be closing out my trade before Wednesday’s close. A bullish case can certainly be made, but we have yet to see it play out, and since it hasn’t actually gotten underway with any serious committment yet… it can only be said that we are very early in the game. We got here by watching, and staying on top of it, daily.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Well? Whatchagonnado?!?!?

Friday, October 13, 6:27 am EST. The metals are just a little bit higher overnight. Will this trade kick-off and truly get going? I’m sure I don’t know. I’m giving it today… and whatever time next week before Wednesday’s close to give it room to run, if it’s going to.

I’m only down 1.69% on my trade. If the miners aren’t going to move up, I’m going to have to sell.

Again, I’ll likely be out of reach and touch from Thursday, Oct 19 thru to the end of the month. I don’t believe I’ll have any internet access, that I might be able to post anything.


Come On, Baby! Let’s GO!!!

Thursday, October 12, 8:25 am EST. The metals continue to rise… some. It’s not been dramatic, and my trade is not yet profitable. It’s off all of 1.33%. Nothing to be concerned about yet.

We had a really big move in PVG Wednesday. I’ve yet to learn why. I just haven’t looked yet. A look at all the others doesn’t reveal anything particular. Volume is swelling some, as it was only off 3% from the 50-day average. I’m waiting for this rally to actually lift-off on volume. We’re not getting that… again. I may bail soon, and have to before next Thursday, in any case.

Checking on Pretium, it had some outstanding Q3 mining results from its Brucejack mine. That’s great! That was a 25% move yesterday. Gotta love it!


Is This Trade Going to Work?

Wednesday, October 11, 8:03 am EST. The metals are both up overseas, and our metals market is just opening. The prices are a bit higher. If they continue to follow through with the reversal to the upside that commenced intra-day last Friday, then the miners will also start to rise even better than they have.

I bought some NUGT yesterday in the morning, and it closed down by 3.6%. I’m not yet concerned any. My stop is in place, and if it hits it, I’ll sell out at a loss. I travel next week, beginning Thursday, and I’ll have to sell out next Wednesday, regardless.

If the metals prices continue to advance, this position should profit, as the miners look like they’d have some catching up to do.

Got to hand it to the OEXpert 7 timer though, don’t you? It appears to have called this bottom just about perfectly!


Which Way Did He Go?

Tuesday, October 10, 8:15 pm EST. Will it continue to rise? The metals closed up, and the miners closed down! Beyond that, there were a lot of Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks on somewhat bigger volume. It was only off 8% from its 50-day avg.

Yes, I bit and took a position this morning, and that trade is off 3.6%. I’ll keep it on a short leash. If the metals continue to rise, the miners will follow suit. As I type, gold and silver are both higher overseas. That bodes well for the trade. And, like I said, I have to get out next Wednesday, in any case, as I won’t be able to monitor the trade in my travel.

I believe the metals have turned, and if they have, the miners will follow. This may be profitable in one week’s time for me.