Solar Eclipse!

Monday, August 21, 6:29 am EST. I see that the metals are ahead by a little overnight. Nothing big, but nonetheless, up, rather than down. There’s talk of what this eclipse means… It means the moon is coming between the earth and the sun! Anything beyond that is not science, but speculations… some based in religion. Certainly nothing to do with economics and finance.

The technicals have not reset. There’s no technical base, or launching point, in place from which to look for a rally. What we’ve seen of late has been news driven, and that can blow prices around like confetti in the wind. I’m watching, and I’m waiting for a technical sign. It’s going to come in the form of some kind of price break through a line of support, or resistance, on volume. It will signal, and later confirm, that a new move of major proportions is taking place. It is reasonably believed and expected to be up. If, and when, that should happen… I want to be there, and to participate in a big enough way so as to profit well. I trust it will be worth the wait and effort.


Trump and Barcelona II

Saturday, August 19, 5:02 am EST. I was running errands, maybe about mid-day, when I heard on the radio that gold was above $1,300 an oz. So, I determined to look in on it, and maybe step-up to the plate, when I returned home. By the time I did get home, the price had already been pushed back under $1,300, and I heard a very short time after that, that Steve Bannon was leaving the administration. I realized that the Trump factor, partly responsible for Thursday’s rise, was quickly fading, as I had surmised.

Then, with Barcelona, I know, too, that international terrorist incidents don’t play into the price of metals for long either, and since Thursday, there were terrorist stabbing incidents in Finland and Germany, and the Barcelona van driver was found and killed. By the time markets closed for this weekend… gold was back to $1,284, and silver back under $17. There had been a tremendous push against overhead resistance… it apparently bowed, but it did not break. This does not disappoint me at all.

I would love for a breakdown in price, a reset of the technical indicators… even a breaking of support, and a last flush-out of weak-handed shareholders, so as to put in the best tradable bottom possible, from which to launch a new bull rally effort. I’m looking into the near-term future, and I’m thinking that before year’s end, we may have a tremendous opportunity before us. I can wait, how ’bout you?


Trump and Barcelona

Friday, August 18, 5:56 am EST. The metals rose overnight, and we’re at $1,295 an oz.! There’s a great deal of overhead resistance to be overcome right about here… a great deal. If we break through the $1,300 an ounce barrier, and volume picks up in the process, it probably could be a safe trade to get aboard.

But, Trump has been impervious to all his attackers to date, and it is believed by many that even this latest won’t last a month. And, these attacks, wherever they seem to happen, tend to go out-of-mind rather quickly, as we like to live in our happy safe bubbles, and not dwell on such things.

So, be warned. This looks to be news related, and not based on technicals. Real fundamentals come into play only when the financial system starts to show signs of stress, that might be leading toward another crisis. Keep your trade on a short leash, and a line-in-the-sand stop underneath your purchase price.

Gold is bullish again. Price is above its 50-day avg, which is above the 200-day avg. Those two averages, the 50 and 200-day, are both flat, but the pattern is bullish. Silver is striving valiantly, having gotten above its 50-day, to break above its 200-day. It’s up against it now, and will likely rise above it today!

I see plenty of reason to think this might be a pivotal sort of day… a day when a possible rally launch might be attempted. there are signs, and the charts appear to show the metals, and a lot of the miners to be sort-of poised, to me. I can’t explain it any better than that, but as I check the metals from time to time throughout the day, if it gets a lift through present resistance, and volume is present… I may open a position in NUGT.


And Still Riding?

Thursday, August 17, 5:46 am EST. Gold’s up a .2%, and silver’s off .3%. Very little happened overnight. Was it a one-day-wonder? Was it enough to qualify as a likely rally start? Time will tell over the course of the next 4 to 7 trading days, in all likelihood. The last time we saw this, it was not. And, since this is not starting from a technically identified base, and is presently close to a recognized resistance level, it was almost certainly have to rise further, challenge and break through that downward sloping resistance line on the kind of volume that says traders are serious about this… or, fall back again.

I don’t see anything to anything yet… but, I’m watching!


Metals No Move

Wednesday, August 16, 6:06 am EST. Looking at prices from overseas trading overnight. Gold declined just a smidge more, and silver is what it closed at here in the US Tuesday. In other words, nothing of any substance seems to have happened. More later, perhaps after the close.


One Strange Day!

Tuesday, August 15, 8:02 pm EST. I’m not going to try to figure this one out. I may learn of why later. The metals were way off at the beginning of Tuesday… but, they did not close the day off as badly as they looked to open. And, the miners, they didn’t suffer as much as I had thought they would. The volume was light, too; off by 27% from its own 50-day avg.

But, it was down, and that is the direction I’d prefer they head for awhile, that risk might get wrung out, and a lo-risk entry opportunity might present itself. I’ll update the timer and see if I can’t get any kind of a feel as to how much more, and how long it might take.

Updating the timer, I can see it’s early in this move, and it’s going to take awhile before I can hope to expect to note a signal setting up. We continue to patiently wait.


Be Not Afraid!

Tuesday, August 15, 8:15 am EST. Prices are way off. But, do not worry. This is the set-up we really want to see! When prices drop hard, and volume spikes, which I trust it will… these are the very signs that typically mark the end of the long decline. This decline started about this time last year, when prices peaked. They bottomed multiple times since, but the most important are those of Dec., Mar., and May. As long as these hold, and we continue to eke out a wedge pattern having a flat bottom, and successively lower peaks, we are working our way towards a great new bull rally. I believe that we can expect that to commence before even this year is out. I believe that market price action is supporting that thesis. In fact, the more people get discouraged, the more disbelieve, the more throw up their hands, and the more give up… Perfect, the more likely it will actually happen.

That is what we are looking at. That is what we are seeing. Now, let’s see if that is how it will ultimately play out for us. By watching it daily, and staying right on top of it, we put ourselves in that place where we can best profit from it, when it does come… and, it will come! Bank on it!!!


And, Now We Know…

Monday, August 14, 7:48 am EST. Metals are off considerably. I noted on the chart that they were bumping up against overhead resistance, and that appears to have held once again, as it has a number of times this year already. That is good!

We have lines of clear support under the prices, and a downward sloping line connecting recent tops that marks clear resistance. This is a Bullish Wedge formation that has developed. Now, if we can drive prices back down to support, and it holds once again, it may well be, since this ‘spring’ has been getting compressed tighter and tighter, that the next lift-off, whenever that might be… may be the very one that we have been waiting for.

Time will tell, and we shall see! Let’s hope that my technical indicators of market risk will call out the next lo-risk entry point, when it arrives. The last one was around mid-July, and it caught that one then.


Where Will It Go?

Saturday, August 12. I’m going to chart everything. What’s going on, where is this going to go? Prices were all over the place Friday. Some up, others down. What is with all of that?

RGLD was up on light volume, as was SGDM.

PAAS was off on average volume, as was ABX and SILJ.

SLV was off on light volume, as was SSRM (used to be SSRI) and FSM.

GDX was up on light volume, as was NUGT, HL and CDE.

GLD, however, closed up, and on better-than-average volume.

WPM was hammered on huge volume, and bounced right off of the very support line I had drawn in my chart… that is support alright! PVG had a similar experience bouncing off support, though volume wasn’t as bad as on WPM. Likewise, AG tumbled on rather big volume, too.

What to make of it? Gold was up, silver was down and prices and volume were all over the map, which means… No consensus and indecision.

Charting an average of all 16, it becomes obvious that for the two days of Thursday and Friday, the top was bumping up against overhead resistance, drawn from all the previous highs, going back to Nov. 9. the downside volume for all, was relatively light. I say this means that this market is now collectively holding its breath concerning North Korea, and would burst through on volume if blows were to come, but if some ‘diplomatic’ solution were to prevent that fuse from being lit, metals and miners would fall back, so as to begin to set-up for the real run-up that is to come… now, maybe, in the Fall?


Throwing This Out There…

Thursday, August 10, 10:35 pm EST. Looking at this report. Is really interesting. I know the Big One is coming, if this launch isn’t it yet.

“If you’re among those who have been waiting to buy, we have some good news… We now have our first good chance to buy gold stocks in months.

Gold-stock investors are a stubborn bunch. Gold stocks started falling last August, and gold-stock investors kept buying all the way down. It took until April for them to finally give up on gold stocks and start selling.

The chart below tells the story. It shows the shares outstanding for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX)…

When the shares outstanding are rising, it typically means investor demand exceeds supply – in short, investors love gold stocks. And when this number is falling, it typically means investors are throwing in the towel.

In short, gold stocks are now “cheap” and “hated” again – two of three of our favorite investment criteria – for the first time since this bull market began. We’re waiting for a clear uptrend before making an official recommendation. Those who don’t want to wait around can take advantage of a low-risk opportunity today…

If you are determined to make a trade in gold stocks, I can suggest a low-risk, high-return trade for you to put on today. Take a look at this chart. It tells the story…

You can see GDX’s big fall in late 2016. But this year, something unusual has happened: Every time GDX has fallen to $21, it has recovered and bounced higher.

So your good trade “setup” today is to buy GDX, and use a hard stop of $21. If GDX CLOSES any day below $21, sell it the next day.

Your downside risk is about 5% from today’s levels. But your upside potential is many times that.