Say What You Want, But This is Good!

Wednesday, July 18, 7:06 am EST. Well, if the lines of price support I was writing about in recent posts, which failed and gave way yesterday, were just what I had said they were… then, the next most obvious action would be that such selling would likely beget more selling… as others give up, throw in the towel, and get out! That would appear to be what is happening now. Prices are off a pretty good amount overnight… Gold’s off .4% and silver another .9%.

Some new price bottom is going to have to be found. Technical price action has been damaged. That which was believed would be support, and that it would hold… as I had thought, too… is no longer applicable. Support broke. It’s likely now that some time is going to be needed to repair the technical damage… And, this previous support is now to likely become future overhead resistance.

So, this is good. More are getting out. They’re selling, taking their loss, and moving on. Some may never come back. As I’ve said before. The harder it becomes, and the more get out and go away, the greater the future gains, when the real rally should commence. It now appears that the real rally is going to be commencing… from a lower price level than was previously thought. O, well…. I’ll watch, and I’ll wait.

I want to participate in one real Bull Market in the metals in my lifetime, if I can. I learned that the metals are just about the most cyclical, and volatile industry group of them all, and I’ve also learned that those who are any good at all in involving themselves in the ‘investment’ and trading of such a volatile and cyclical group, can make fantastic returns, and create fabulous wealth. With a portion of that which I have, I am hoping to catch one such ride as that… pretty much for the fun of it, I suppose, as I don’t actually need to, at all!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

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Am I Dead?

Tuesday, July 17, 5:18 pm EST. If you were to ask me to explain it… I couldn’t. I, like, totally, don’t get it!

Gold and silver fell hard, but I don’t see it in the miners or mining funds! PVG is okay. Nothing wrong with WPM. CDE’s hanging on. RGLD’s alright. SSRM’s shrugging. GDX rose! SGDM did, too!

GLD broke the long support line. So, the best sense I can make of it at this point, is to draw a horizontal line that pretty well connects the lows of 5/16, 3/17, 5/17 and 7/17. It’s a perfect picture, but the best I’m able to figure at this point in time. Since GLD closed at $116.28, and this ‘support’ that I think exists is at $115.00, the stop for this decline may be relatively close at hand. After that, we’d have to go to the December ’16 low? That would be hard to take….

Let’s move on… SILJ doesn’t look well. I don’t own any, just follow it. Silver’s support, as I graph SLV, is broken, like gold’s is. The 7/11/17 low is still intact, and is the only logical last line of defense, before we go way back to when this bull market started in December of ’15. We’re looking at a $14.43 level now, with SLV presently at $14.67… not all that much further.

FSM is okay. ABX is not hurting. PAAS has been falling pretty hard. NUGT got dumped big time… volume was massive, but the support level was not violated. AG got stung, but not torched! Finally, HL is still in the game, and barely hanging on, but it’s not down and out.

In general, the miners have fared far better than the metals themselves… Why is that? There’s still life. It’s not dead yet, but it sure is getting to look more like a zombie state!

The improvement in things I had noted, somewhat in hindsight, and going back specifically to the date of 3/20… remember? That improving condition lasted until 6/14. Since 6/14, it’s been a decidedly bearish condition, which looked to attempt to reversed with the 6/28-7/2 time frame. That only lasted or worked thru 7/9 for about 1 week… since then, it’s become quite unraveled, and there’s a real need to sit back, and take something of a jaundiced look at the whole situation, and realize that this make take some time to sort out, and ultimately right itself… but, the question now becomes where? At what level? I think my job just got a whole lot harder!

Harold

 

BOOM!

Tuesday, July 17, 2:13 pm EST… Wow! Wow! WOW!!! The metals are taking the pipe! Important levels of price support have been broken!

I’ll look right into it all, and write it all up later, but, the very levels of support I identified, were being watch by many everywhere… and, when they were broken… SMASH! BOOM! POW!!! What’s next? We’ll read the charts, price and volume, and start watching for whatever opportunity will come… when it comes.

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What?!?!?!? 2:18 pm EST. Just looked in on my gold miners and funds, and… nearly half of them are UP on the day! What is THIS??? I’m sure I don’t know. More later!

Harold

 

All the World Awaits with Bated Breath!

Tuesday, July 17, 4:22 am EST. The world came to an end while I was sleeping last night… and, I missed it!

No, not really. I made some coffee, logged on, checked on the precious metals and how they were trading overseas in the wee hours of our morning here, and was most pleasantly surprised to learn that they had stepped back from the brink of the abyss by an amount that signifies to me that price support is holding. It probably would not hurt in the least, and might be fun to check in on whether the technical indicators in the OEXpert 7 Market Timing Program has gotten a feel for this market, and is saying there would appear to be very little risk right here… I’ll do that and report back with an update on this same post later.

But, before I do, a look at the symbols within the technical parameters I’ve set up in stockcharts.com has me kind of excited. I’m looking at the chart for the gold ETF, GLD, and it is very promising, to my mind. First, RSI went oversold under 30 at this price level in June, and early July. But, RSI is presently a bit higher, while price has fallen back to that same level. That is called a divergence, and is a bullish one in this instance. Next, the Slow Stochastic is at an oversold reading of 14. Third, the two indicators, PPO and ADX are coming together, in what has come to be called the P3 Squeeze, and that tends to be a very good predictor of a soon rally to come with most any security that creates that signal. And, fourth, the Acc/Dist line has begun to turn up before price has. So, what have we here? The technicals I rely upon within stockcharts.com are telling me this level of price support is more likely to hold, than not, and that perhaps a new rally may be immanent. Wouldn’t that be nice? I wish I could say that the ETF for silver, SLV, was mirroring gold, and saying the very same thing, but I can’t get that vibe from the SLV chart. And, just to be completely honest, the mining shares and mining fund charts don’t say the same either… only GLD. Might that be enough???

Back in a bit with the timer’s outlook.

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5:15 am EST update. Inputting all back data into the OEXpert Timer, I can say this about each of the 7 indicators within the 26 year-old program that I run on a dedicated XP machine that will NEVER go online… Price is at the lowest of its 2 lower trading bands, and is also the same place price was at when it last put in an important bottom back in December. That’s a signal. F1 isn’t fast enough to keep up, and is out of whack. It’s not signaling, and would require some time to do so. F2, on the other hand, is the fastest, and it is signaling. It’s also the least reliable and helpful. F3 is about the slowest and most reliable, and it is close to a new signal, registering a 12, where 10 signals. F4 is very close to re-signaling, too. F5, at 33, is signaling. And, F6 reads an 8, and that is a signal!

I am very content with what I am looking at. I believe that support is holding, and will succeed in doing so. This would sure look like a great low-risk opportunity!

Harold

Critical!

Monday, July 16, 9:52 pm EST. Well, the metals are right on the edge. Support has been holding right up until now… and, now, it is bending… will it break? Inquiring minds want to know!

I’m going to bed. In the morning, I’ll check on it again, and write whatever needs to be said… Will it be, Put a Fork In It?!?!?!?

Until Tuesday morning, friends.

Harold

I Was Ill… Will Gold Take Ill, Too?

Monday, July 16, 7:32 am EST. I took ill last Wednesday… I was still feeling the effects of it even as late as into Sunday. Did you miss me? I didn’t think so…

So, I need to look at the last couple of trading days, Thursday and Friday. There had been a nice surge coming out of 6/28-7/2, where for a week, thru 7/9, we were being given reason for high hope. Since Monday the 9th, however, it’s been all backing up. What’s that all about?

Well, for one thing, the base from it which it came out of is still intact. That’s important. This gives us a new level of near-term price support to keep an eye on. Now, that said… GOLD has slipped right back to the very long price support that connects the 12/15 and 12/16 price bottoms. This is considered in the eyes of many, including myself, no doubt, as a very important place of price support… right here!

And, as I’ve noted a number of times before, that despite the seeming poor price performance of the gold, the miners are doing better. That is not insignificant, and helps us to believe that a real Bull Market was born in December of ’15, and is still the operative mode of the market… This is a bull market in the metals and miners… well, until it isn’t! So, all eyes are likely on gold, and this line of price support.

Now, that I’m looking at the silver chart… pretty much the very same thing. It’s now in the very close vicinity of the important 12/16, 7/16, and 12/17 price lows… an important area of price support. The silver juniors mining fund is doing a similar dance with its own long-term price support line.

So, the nut hasn’t cracked… we’re still in good shape and having reason to continue to hold out hope, and ask the question… When? How much longer?

A look at the metals, and average of all the miners shows that everything, together, is putting in a level of price support, which in the nearer-term now touches down on the dates 5/1, 6/28 and now 7/13, with many other dates getting near to this price level. The market is wanting to support both the metals, and their miners at these price levels, it would appear.

A look at the prices right now, suggests that this support is wanting to be kept and held. Overnight, overseas, and just before our metals market opens at 8:00 am EST, we see gold slightly up, and sister silver only slightly down. The metals are attempting to hang at this level of price support. Will it break, or will it hold? Many, many are no doubt watching and waiting for the answer to that question, as am I.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Will It? Won’t It?

Monday, July 16. A friend forwarded this to me. I find it interesting. First of all, though, it comes from a marketing piece…

Why Solar Power Will Send the Price of  Silver Soaring

By E.B. Tucker, editor, Strategic Investor

Clean energy is on the rise. From hydroelectric dams to wind power, people are demanding cleaner sources of energy.

However, one sector is set to surge in the coming years as costs continue to decline.

That sector is solar power. And as I’ll show you in the report, silver is about to get a huge boost as well.

Solar power is not new. Its breakthrough discovery came way back in the late 1800s. Commercial use began in the 1950s, with the advent of the silicon solar cell for use in small electronic devices.

Back then, the cost of a one-watt solar cell was around $300. As with any technology, innovation can drive costs much lower. Today, a photovoltaic (PV) solar cell goes for about $1 per watt, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). And costs are still heading lower.

This opens the door for an explosion in large-scale solar power generation. And one key component of solar panels stands to benefit: silver.

Today, one solar panel contains about 20 grams of silver. While that doesn’t sound like much, consider that generating the equivalent of 1 megawatt (MW) of power would take roughly 4,000 solar panels.

The Tengger Desert Solar Park in China is currently the world’s largest solar array. Its capacity is 1,547 MW and covers nearly 450 square miles.

That’s millions of solar panels. It’s also why it’s nicknamed the “Great Wall of Solar.”

And demand is only going to increase from here. According to research firm GlobalData, worldwide demand for PV capacity is set to increase almost 3x by 2025.

It’s that kind of growth that could send the price of silver soaring.

How to Profit From the Solar Surge

Silver is an industrial metal, used in everything from plastic to batteries, and even deodorant. With the advent of PV solar panels, silver has found another use that we think investors have yet to recognize.

Buying physical silver can be lucrative. After spending years bouncing around between $12 and $18 per ounce, silver looks primed for a takeoff.

With demand for silver on the rise, physical silver could triple. That’s a great return…

but silver mining stocks will do better.

Silver mining companies have huge costs for digging silver from the ground. That’s why when the price of silver spends years doing nothing, miners aren’t the best investment.

When silver moves higher, it usually moves very quickly. To give you some idea, silver usually runs three times as fast as gold. If gold moves up 10%, silver could move up 30%. This isn’t a hard and fast rule… but track several big runs in silver, and you’ll see that pattern play out.

Silver mining companies capture that price surge right away.

As this trend continues, the top silver miners stand to benefit.

Regards,”

Well, IF this plays out, and WHEN it plays out, I hope to be right on top of it!

Harold

Careful Is Good, Yes?

Wednesday, July 11, 8:54 pm EST. So, let the trade wars begin! Sheesh! Talk about an instant derailment of a possible potential rally in the metals and miners!!!

So, what about prices and volume? PVG, ok. AG, holding up decently. WPM, the same. Same for RGLD. So far, so good… GDX a bit ugly, but not bad. CDE making out alright.

Now GLD is just above that incredibly big support I wrote of awhile back. That line connects only the Dec. ’15 and Dec. ’16 bottoms before it got touched on 7/2… and we are incredibly close to it right now! Will it hold?

SGDM is rather ugly, but not too bad. SLV is at that very same place as it… and GLD were on 7/2, and so the question comes back again… will it hold?!?!?

SSRM looks pretty decent! SILJ got whacked and is very close to its support, even as SLV is. ABX is holding up decently. PAAS got hurt. It had been doing so well since 5/9, but it gave back a lot today, and on big volume, too. FSM looks a bit threatening, but is still ok. NUGT is like the other mining funds, and they’re somewhat ugly, but not too terribly bad. HL’s barely holding it’s own.

My take is that we’re at a crossroads. Something, somebody, somewhere has got to give. If this trade war business is going to interfere with the other markets in the manner it has begun to, then there’s no good reason to think the price support lines can hold, and we might witness a metals and miners smash as a result. OR, somebody might blink, and some kind of an agreement might be arrived at, and an immense relief rally might ensue.

We’ll, of course, all be right here on the front row to see it. May something truly wonderful come of it all!

Harold

Being Careful

Monday, July 9, 9:15 pm EST. I saw it right from the first half hour of the morning. It was a good pop at the open, followed by selling off. By the end of the day, many had closed lower than they had opened… even though the metals closed higher on the day. But, they too, had opened higher than they had closed, though not at a loss, like most of the miners. It was sort of a reversal of the recent action, where the miners had been doing considerably better than the metals.

The price action in most of the miners I look at was that of the bearish engulfing  candlestick, which is not a promising day’s action, but I’m not discouraged. We wait, and we watch… and we know precisely what it is that we are looking for… and, I pray I have the good sense to recognize it when I see it.

When this baby really starts to move… it is going to breakout, right through overhead resistance, and it is going to do so on expanding volume. It will tell us when to buy… and, I can’t tell gold, silver or the miners what to do.

But, they ‘talk’ to me. And, right now they’re saying… Someday, sometime, I’m going to give you just what you’re looking for… do you have the patience to wait me out, and do you have the guts to act, when the sign is right in front of your face? To which I reply… You just try me!

Harold

Pretty Cool, Huh?

Monday, July 9, 10:00 am EST. Was so busy last weekend, I never got to catch up and write. But, looking at what is transpiring right now… Things are moving in the direction we want, and that I had said that I thought it just might want to… and, so, for now, it is! That’s pretty cool!

Now, I will chart everything from Friday’s close, and look again, as to what they’re doing since the open, one half hour ago, and be looking for price moves on VOLUME, through resistance. It’s still a bit of a ways away for most symbols, but the activity in all of them, and especially those that are leading and breaking out, could be very telling. First, charts through Friday…

But, first, I recently did write that it appeared possible one could put on an early, but speculative risk position… if any of you did, you’re likely feeling pretty good right now!

What I said that I saw was that there had been some few days of incredibly positive price action in the mining shares that could not be attributed to the price action in the metals themselves, and that that sign was possibly very positive… and, so it is proving to be as a possible sign of some forthcoming rally. Friday’s stock price action only further served to continue my opinion on that point. Friday was Day 5 of that same positive stock action, contrary to the message coming from the metals, themselves.  That’s why I was saying there appeared to be more going on than met the eye. The metals were performing in one manner, while nearly all the stocks were performing in another, more bullish, manner… and, I wondered out loud, if that wasn’t meaningful. Today, it appears that it may have been.

So, I’ve looked at the charts from Friday’s perspective, as though today had not yet started. They adequately served to reinforce my early thesis. So what about today, now that it is about 10:20, and I have one half hour of price and volume data to look at? Well first of all, we’ve got a monster move of some 17% in PVG! Nice moves in most everything else, too, but that a lot of the earliest gain is being given back… as of 10:00 a.m. That’s fine. I’m not a nervous trader type. I’m waiting until much closer to the end of the day, and may get back then, to report how the day had been going, or even after the close, to chart and note what took place during all the day. There is NO rush, NO hurry, and I won’t be rushed…. We need a convincing price breakout on volume, and until I see that, I’m going to watch, and keep my cool! That’s pretty cool!


Quick 10:35 update, looking at data from 10:15. Things look to be trading at today’s lows, so far. A lot is being given back… we’ll see how it all shake’s out in the end….

Harold