And, More Indecision…

Monday, March 6, 6:36 am EST. The metals and miners didn’t move much at all Monday… I had said that Friday’s candlestick denoted indecision. Prices hadn’t hardly moved a bit over the weekend… and, Monday was more of the same; and on lower volume, too. Classic indecision… no price movement on lower volume.

Support continues to hold, too. I’ll update the timer, and see if it can give me any insight.


7:13 am EST update. The metals were flat when I wrote at 6:36. They’ve since made a bit of a move upward. And, updating the timer, it is just about as near to giving a new lo-risk entry signal as it could be! If we were to have one more sideways to down day, nearly everything would be in their respective signaling places. This is a good time to be watching, and maybe even putting a small speculative ‘bet’ in place, but on the tight leash of a close stop… as, we may see a move begin here in this week. It may be immanent!




Monday, March 5, 7:42 am EST. Well, Friday’s candlestick would typically be interpreted as indecision, as I stated then. So, this morning, while metals trading is still goin’ on overseas, the price of gold and silver is… gold unchanged, and silver off all of $.02. That would be the very definition of… INDECISION, as the market is open, there’s buying and there’s selling, but the prices are not moving either way by any appreciable amount.

So, we WAIT and we WATCH! There’s an old familiar refrain!


Decent Day

Friday, March 2, 6:43 pm EST. So, the metals closed up some, and the miners mostly did the same. Volume dried up considerably. But, the best that can be said, I suppose, is that the violated support level is looking to remain a line of support, and that traders are wanting to keep it as such… for now.

A look at all the charts, what is there that is worthy of noting? The candlestick formed by the average of all of them is that of a Spinning Top, which combined with the considerably lower volume, is indicative of indecision. Of keen interest to me is that the 2 best charts are for the metals, themselves, and not the miners! The candlestick for both gold and silver, the GLD and SLV charts, is that of a bullish Hammer. There’s a weekend ahead, and markets for the metals won’t reopen anywhere until 6 pm EST in Asia.

I’ll take another look Sunday evening, and see if any reason for renewed hope will exist.


Support Did Break, Then Recovered!

Thursday, March 1, 7:04 pm EST. Well, I’m NOT prescient, but price support was broken today, and I saw prices off a good bit… then, just moments ago, I looked in to start writing, and saw nearly all had closed UP! I realized then some sort of intra-day reversal had taken place.

GLD broke support. Price fell a good bit after that… then it recovered to close above the broken support, but price was volatile, and volume was 53% greater than it’s 50-day average. Traders saw, and knew what I had seen. It was at support… support was broken. More selling came in… technical indications of risk showed it all wrung out, and buyers stepped up to snatch up shares. It raced up pretty far and fast, and some then sold into that instant gain so as to take a quick profit. All that translated into rather high-volume volatility on the day.

I see the same thing with SLV, only it managed to close higher on the day, as did nearly all the miners and funds. Only CDE and ABX closed lower, along with GLD. This kind of price and volume action results in Bullish Engulfing pattern candlesticks, and is totally indicative of an intra-day reversal to the upside, of the very nature that I wrote of only last evening. I’ll update the timer, and see where the indicators land, but all is pointing to the very real possibility, that it is attempting to make its stand here, and to commence an upside price action rally.

Now, the thing to look for, is to see if it has any follow-through… if it can gain any traction, and truly start to lift with any conviction on volume. Today’s action says that it should, but we’ve been disappointed so many times for so long, it’s hard not to have a jaundiced and skeptical eye to it. I’ll update the timer, and see if it can add anything more.


Not Certain, But…!

Thursday, March 1, 7:35 am EST. The metals are lower overseas. Will this result in the taking out of price support today, such as I only wrote about last evening? Could be.

In any case, it’s time to watch real closely, as the very scenario I only just laid out last night, may actually commence today, which might very well make for an incredible opportunity to open up to us next week! I’ll call it as I see it….


Stickin’ My Neck Out

Wednesday, February 28, 9:03 pm EST. I’ve updated my timer, and I think it’s trying to say something. Let’s see if I’m reading this correctly.

First, in order for one very important indicator to signal… price support would have to break. That would appear to most to be a very bad thing. But, the F1 thru F6 indicators would all very quickly fall into place. I could see F1 giving a signal next week. F2 could signal before this week ends. But, it tends to be first anyway, so I don’t give it as much credence. F3, which often takes longer, could also easily signal next week. F4 is the least likely, but could also get into place next week. F5 is surprising me. I think it will signal as early as maybe even tomorrow! That leaves us with F6. Give it a couple of days, and early next week, it could be signaling again.

So, here’s what I am thinking… or, more like wondering. Perhaps support gets broken, and a ‘shake-out’ occurs, where weak hands sell… but, no sooner than that happens, then we get an upside reversal, and a true rally move shows itself.

I could see such a thing begin to set-up as early as this week, with a reversal coming next… if I am reading what this OEXpert 7 timer might be trying to say to me.

Share prices, for the most part have fallen to the place of price support, which means it is now being tested. The test may fail, and support be broken… then, let’s see if what I’ve just proposed doesn’t actually come true. Hey, it could happen! Let’s watch and see what unfolds.



Teusday, February 27, 7:01 pm EST. I’ve been away, and I’ve returned. The metals turned up when I had said that I thought they would, and they got turned back from right at that very place of resistance I had thought that maybe they would. That was some pretty good technical analysis and prognostication. Oh, and today, it got all the way back down, and bounced off of price support… all the while the distance between the two keeps getting smaller… like a spring being compressed ever more tightly!

Most of the charts are looking pretty bearish at this time, but price support is just beneath current prices, and now it is time to see whether it’s going to hold, or give way. Should support fail, a lot will be throwing in the towel, as this was all setting up as a quite a bullish picture. It still remains so, but a great danger to it currently exists.

If support should fail, I’d expect considerably more selling. If the overhead resistance can be overcome, a good deal more buying would create follow-through… and the distance between those levels is tightening. It’s creating a very large wedge pattern.

I’ll update the timer tomorrow, and see if I can’t derive any greater insight from it, as well as to look into the other technical indicators I’ve put faith in.

I’m wanting to be enthusiastic, but I have a sense of impending doom hanging over my head… and, it causes me to wonder if we won’t, in fact, have a very ugly spill. What do you think?


Back in the Saddle Again!

Tuesday, February 27, 9:41 am EST. I’m home from a Third-World not-so-developing Nation. Looking at a couple of previous posts… It would appear I called the last bottom, as well as suggested that previous resistance might likely prove to be the next top.

Very quickly examining a GLD price top, it would appear I got both calls right.

As soon as I am able, I’ll get all caught up, review all the charts, and see where we’re presently at, as well as to suggest where I think things might go in the short-term, before what we will get is a pretty certain longer-term breakout to the upside, with what I believe might be with some kick, so that gains should be substantial then.

More later…. when I can get back.


Will It? Or, Won’t It?

Wednesday, February 14, 4:57 am EST. Not out of the woods yet… but, once again, overnight, Tuesday night, the metals have been having a decent outing, in the sense that prices are hanging right in there. Gold is up some and silver is, too. Nothing major, mind you, but showing just the kind of signs of good health that say… This is a Bull Market in the metals. It started with the bottom in December of ’15. That’s big-time, serious, major support. The next truly major support level was put into place in December of ’16. If all continues as it has of late, the December ’17 low looks to be the third and most recent major price support level… and, each one is higher than the previous one. This is what helps us to define this as a true Bull Market.

Next, and this is easily as important… The high after the Dec ’15 low, in July of ’16, is the highest of tops since the market turned bullish. The high after the Dec ’16 low, in Sept of ’17, is a lower high. That Sept high, however, is right where the rally out of the Dec ’17 low also just recently ended in the Jan., not 1 month ago… that formed a double-top; and is now a truly formidable resistance point, but by no means a Bull back-breaker!

The longer-term chart, that goes as far back as to include the Dec ’15 Bear-to-Bull Market turn, is one of a bullish wedge pattern. We have higher lows, followed by lower highs. It is coiling a little bit tighter with time. One of two more likely things are going to happen from here. I’m prognosticating, but there’s some good history, and a bit of technical chart-reading science to this: Either these markets continue upward, and breakthrough the double-top formed from the Sept ’17 / Jan.’18 highs, or it gets turned back from there once again, and this ‘spring’ will be compressed tighter, as it comes back down to challenge some support level, either the one just put in 2/7, 8+9, or back to the Dec ’17 low, to re-group and run at it again. But…

In any case, this is a Bull Market, and when it breaks up out and through the overhead resistance only a little bit higher, in the $128 / $129 area for GLD, there’s going to be some ‘fireworks’ as it lifts off with some authority. Traders the world over are watching for this triggering event to pile some positions on! I’m tellin’ ya!

(I’ll try to get one more in before I’m off-line for almost the next 2 entire weeks.)