Metals On The Move!

Tuesday, October 10, 7:58 am EST. Folks, they’re moving. They’re moving UP! The precious metals had a good weekend, they had a good Monday. They’ve done just fine overnight, and they are on the move!!! This commenced during the day Friday, but it hasn’t stopped.

I’m going to check all the Monday charts… And, ARGH! Volume absolutely STINKS! The average volume for all 16 symbols is off by 34% from its own 50-day average. I’d seen where this was North Korea related. I said that’s not a good reason for a trade. The second any sense of relief enters into this picture, the prices will fall back. I am NOT a trader of the type that sits and watches his positions. When the less bad news comes, I won’t be there to see it and to act upon it.

For the more nimble among you, you can trade this move. I really should not. I didn’t load up when I last got a signal in July, and I lamented the volume for that move from the beginning, you may recall. It was a tradable move, and I could have easily traded NUGT for something in the double-digits, up to even as much as 40%. I’ll go ahead and put something more on this, other than what I always hold, but just so that I’ll have reason to stick closer to the action, and write about it… But, I’ll have to get out of it before the close, Wednesday the 18th, as I must be away the 19th thru the 30th, and I am told that internet access will be either very poor or non-existent. I apologize for the inconvenience, but it cannot be helped. I’ll get right back up to speed as soon as I am able, when I return.


I have JUST learned of a truly fundamental reason for gold’s turn upward. Import and acquisition of gold in India rose some 31% over that amount recorded last year. That’s a real good reason to make a trade in the metals! I’m going to step up and take a new position in NUGT. There, I just bought a position at $35.52. I cannot hold it for more than the next week, but I’ll place my stop at about 10%, or so under my purchase price. And, if I have any profit, I’ll take it before the close next Wednesday, as I have to leave the country, and will likely have no internet access to my accounts.



Joke’s On Me!

Monday, October 9, 12:42 am EST. Well, the joke’s on me! I only assumed that the markets were closed here in the US, because up here in the Northeast, we take Columbus day quite seriously, and everything is closed… there are parades, and Nancy and I went to a Fall Festival. Everyone has the day off. Its a 3-day weekend here.

So, the metals are up on more North Korea concerns, which I consider a poor reason to trade. The market’s ARE open. Stocks are flat, and the metals are up. The miners are having a pretty decent day, since they ARE trading.

I apologize, if I confused anyone. The confusion was all mine.


We Have Lift-Off?

Sunday, October 8, 10:22 pm. The metals are moving, and they’re headed UP! Our metals market will open in the morning, but stocks will NOT, in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. We can’t buy!!!

Anyhow, we do get to watch from the sidelines, and the stock markets will open Tuesday morning. If the metals run, the miners will explode open Tuesday morning. Makes me glad I always have a bunch in place… sure wish I’d put a trade on last week just on the basis of the technical indicators… ain’t gonna cry over lost opportunity now! Later….


Very Tricky Market!

Saturday, October 7, 6:39 am EST. I’d concluded, by Friday morning, that nothing of any consequence or importance was going to happen in this market for all of this past week. I’d noted that my technical measures of market risk had all signaled, and that it was pretty safe to assume that market risk had been largely wrung out… and, that it was now time to look for a gold rally. It wasn’t materializing, which was just fine by me. I simply suspected strongly that one would start fairly soon. By the end of the day, and after the close, I noted that something had definitely changed… while I wasn’t paying any attention.

So, here I am. I am now firing everything up, to look at all the charts, wondering if we are right now on the cusp of a rally launch. I know this: Stocks are at a place of very high risk, having been on the upswing for quite some time now, and the metals have lost a lot of luster for the past month. Is it time they reversed their roles??? It could be!

First, from the timer. It simply runs algorithms with price data I input. F1 has flatlined at 11. It had signaled. F2 turned up, and is still signaling under -5. F3 is at 2, may be turning… It signaled. F4 is turning up and is at -5. It had signaled. F5, still falling, is at 15! That’s somewhat extreme and rare. F6 is turning up, and is at 3. It, too had signaled. Now, price had taken a dip in the day, and had reached down into the very price range of $120 to $118 I had been calling for, and then it reversed intraday to the upside. All my objectives have been met. What do we do?

Well, first up, I see a lot of Bullish Engulfing candlesticks! And, I also see considerably better volume having come in, too! Same goes for the one chart of an average of all 16 symbols. Bullish candlestick, and better than average volume by 13%. Might not sound like a lot, but far better than the volume has been of late.

We may safely conclude at this time that Friday was likely significant, and that we need to now see how things open overseas at 6 pm EST Sunday evening, and what it’s looking like come Tuesday morning, by our gold market 8 am open, and the stocks open at 9:30. This may be the trading opportunity we have been waiting, watching and hoping for! I hate predicting, especially the future, but I’m willing to step up and say that I think I smell opportunity here. More analysis and decision-making to come… Tuesday morning. Have a great 3-day holiday weekend!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell


No Dice!

Friday, October 6, 7:56 am EST. The ETF, GLD is now into that $120 area I’ve been wanting to see it decline into. It’s an area of price support in the timer, and obviously, to the market, as it is trying so hard to hang in here, and let that support hold. It’s a struggle, to be sure! Gold and silver have put in a 4-day bottom here, so far. This morning, metals are up a smidge… support is still holding here… for now.

The miners closed down yesterday. I had thought they were getting off to a false start, before the metals turned, and were doing so on very poor volume. There was no conviction behind the hope of those who were trying to catch the very bottom. Volume was even lower, however, and was off by 29%, from its own 50-day average volume.

I like that we’re basing, and that the timer seems to have found both support, and a potential for a lo-risk entry. Now, it matters whether a real rally can come of it. So far, that’s not happening, and I’m not about to ’cause’ it to happen by my buying, and yours!


8:16 am EST. F1 is at 11. It has already signaled. F2 is between -6 and -7 and is signaling. F3 is at 1. That’s a signal! F4 is right at -5, and trying to turn back up. F6 is right on the floor, and has nowhere else to go. For all intents and purposes, risk would appear to be gone, according to the timer. We wait and watch, as opportunity would seem to be close at hand.

Harold F Crowell

I Thought Not….

Thursday, October 5, 9:21 am EST. I haven’t been able to stay right on top of things as I had hoped. There’s a lot swirling around in my life right now. It’ll quiet down. First, the metals are still down around near-term lows. This is a plus. We certainly aren’t missing anything.

Next, the miners are still taking off! And, the volume is still weak, weak, weak… off 27% from the 50-day average! What to make of any of this? What I find so odd is that the miners would commence to start up so well, price-wise, as they are definitely turning up. The metals, particularly silver, are not, and the volume is pitiful.

The metals are already trading, and they are off this morning. Stocks open in a minute. They’re they opened, and nearly all the miners are down… no surprise there.

I’ll enter the data into the timer, to see if its calling for even lower risk, but we’re at a juncture here. The metals appear to be attempting to base, and the traders, with a bit of their capital appear to be taking speculative positions, in the hope that this will be a bottom. I don’t play that game. I await a good signal, which is what appears to be setting up, and I await a confirmation of a rally, when it lifts well on good volume, which is the signal that big money is moving in the metals’ direction.

As of this moment, it still is not!


9:49 am EST. I’ve updated the timer, and F1 is at 11, and had already signaled. F2 is still in at -6. That’s a signal. F3 reads 5, and it has joined the camp. That’s a signal. F4 is a bit under -5, and signals for us. F5 is giving a 28… well under 40, and it’s a go. Finally, F6 hit 1, yesterday, and has risen to 2. It is also giving a lo-risk market entry signal. The price of GLD has tagged the first of its two lower trading bands, so that also constitutes a signal. We’re just now awaiting any real sign that a goodly rally of any sorts is going to arise from out of this. Some traders in mining shares are certainly hoping so, but the metals prices have yet to reverse upward, and the volume is saying… No Dice!



This Is It?

Wednesday, October 4, 7:10 am EST. Well, folks, this may be it! I had to teach my semi-annual investing class last night, and couldn’t observe and write anything up, but I see the metals are giving the appearance of having turned. Especially overnight, just last night. Is this it? It just might be!

Let’s look at charts. They’re only good thru yesterday’s close. If current price increases hold, the miners are going to open with a pop! Maybe those who got in early did buy the bottom! First, GLD and SLV are both only just now turning up from their higher lows. This is bullish. Second, in both instances, GLD and SLV are reversing to the upside on very low volume. That is NOT bullish, but today may be a whole ‘nother matter. We shall see. Third, the miners have turned in advance of the metals, and they’re getting something of a head start on this run, but there’s NO volume to their reversal either. Average volume for all Tuesday was off 21% from its own 50-day average of volume. If we’re reversing from here, conviction needs to show its face, in the form of a real pick-up in volume, or I’ll be suspicious of this ‘rally’ as I was of the July rally, which never did amount to much of anything. But, even for that, it did prove to have been tradable.

One could take some positions here, and put tight stops under them, and see if what is happening will confirm, at which point we could load up, but don’t be betting the farm, or any of your mortgage money… this market has a lot to prove before it should be committed to with any serious trading money yet! But, today just might be that day that says… Let’s Go! If so, the timer would have accurately called it again. Let’s see if it did.


Are You Ready?

Tuesday, October 3, 7:57 am EST. Metals have been going down. I have been watching them move their technical measures of market risk down to their respective lo-risk entry signaling places.

Monday was just plain strange. I saw the metals off, while the miners were up. That doesn’t happen often, but what it told me was that a good number of traders were anticipating the bottom, even as I have been, but they were buying into it, hoping to catch the very bottom. That’s typically not good trading strategy.

Good trading strategy says you wait to see if the metals bottom, and commence to rally first… then, with a confirmation, you buy in. Maybe you’d be willing to speculate a bit of capital on bottom-fishing, hoping to nail the bottom, but that’s typically a ‘fool’s errand’. I have no interest in doing any such thing as that.

So, I’ve updated the timer, and price is just now touching the first of its 2 lower trading bands. We can call that a signal, but I’d like a little more, and I think today just might give that to us. Remember, I was hoping for $120 to $118 on the price of GLD? Well, it’s now at $120.77… close! F1 is at 10, going sideways, but it’s a signal. F2 is at -6 and is signaling. F3 is at 16, and with another day, say today, it could signal! F4, a little under -5, is signaling. F5 is now at 39, and has just signaled. F6 is at 2, and it has signaled. The timer is just about fully satisfied, as am I. Today, should it also close lower, and take some wind out of the miners’ sails, could be just what we need to say… get yourself fully loaded and locked, as opportunity would appear to be knocking. If you wanted to hazard a small speculative position right now, you could put that on, but I’m not going to.

Tomorrow, however, may be who whole ‘nother matter! If we close down, and the miners are off, and all the indicators are ‘there’. It’ll be an ideal opportunity to expect a turn upward, and possibly even a meaningful rally, worthy of participating in. We’re watching now, from the edge of our seats!




Monday, October 2, 1:54 pm EST. Most interesting that the metals are down, but most of the miners are up. This is likely a sign that a good many traders have identified what I have… that a technical bottom would appear to be here, and these are wanting to identify the very bottom and get in right here. It doesn’t really work that way, and if this was going to be the bottom, I now suspect that it is not. We’ll keep watching. I can’t, in good faith, be biting here, where obviously a number of others are at this time. It’s too strange!


Ready for Take-Off?

Sunday, October 1, 8:54 pm EST. Metals are lower overseas. The set-up appears to be continuing. It looks as if we may very well get an all-out, lo-risk market entry opportunity in this first week of October.

Don’t be premature… just ready to pounce, should opportunity show itself in the form of a new rally launch. We’ll see… we shall see!