Tuesday, January 2, 8:18 pm EST. I’m being asked to project where this run might go. I’ll take a stab at it.
On the price chart for GLD, the last 1 yr high was September 7 and 8. It did a 5 wave down trip from there to the December 12 and 13 bottom. It has since risen thru all 3 lines of resistance I had identified. Those being its own 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the one line connecting the tops since 9/7. Right where it is now, is where there is a gap to be filled back on 9/18. Once that gap is filled, it could commence to retrace. There’s another gap, right after the 9/7+8 topping dates. Between that gap and those two trading days comprising the 1-year top… that place would surely be a place of resistance, and new highs are often difficult to achieve, but once done so, can offer some pretty clear sailing.
My own guess, before I even go anywhere else, to conduct some further study, is that being the eternal optimist that I am, I think this is actually going to be a very good year for the metals, and that the closest resistance I just mentioned might be broached as early as tomorrow; which if it is, the September top will be left, and that is only just 2.28% away. I don’t believe that will prove to be a strong resistance. I believe that this rally is only just now beginning to get some legs under it.
If that is so, Katie bar the door, because the 1-year high will have been taken out, and that was the first top of this fledgling Bull Market that only just bottomed and reversed, to become a Bull in December of 2016. It’s barely more than 1 year old, and it is just now finishing a 4-month correction that did not violate the lows previously established by this 12.5 month old Bull Market. I strongly suspect new Bull market highs will happen, and within just the next couple or three months, if not sooner! Did I say I was an optimist? Haha! More later, as I consult other charts in my program, my timer, and at stockcharts.com.
8:38 pm. I tried to learn the why of this, but there is a HUGE one-day spike in volume for the one special gold miner ETF whose symbol is SGDM. That spike was right after this move got under way, and can be seen on 12/19. I happen to know that Eric Sprott, the founder of this fund, likes to buy chunks of it for himself at opportune times, but my insider buy site has no data for that fund. Average volume at the time was 46,000 shares, but on the 19th, it exploded to more than 750,000 shares, or more than 16 times the average volume. I don’t know, but you tell me… whoever did that buying was prescient!