Signs of Life!

Thursday, July 5, 7:31 pm EST. Looking over all the charts, all I can say is that the past 4 trading days are trying to give off this idea that there are signs of life stirring within the metals and miners, and that we need to stay right on top of the situation, just in case it should actually turn into something.

Like I previously said, the very most daring among you could put on a position, and put a tight stop under it, if you feel so inclined. I’m not going to, but I am going to stay on top of this, and make a call, should a breakout up through overhead resistance take place, accompanied by any meaningful volume.

It’s not dead, and it’s not truly alive yet either, but a faint spark, a hope of life exists, and if it can be fanned into a flame, we’ll get in on that!

Harold

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Last Post Today… I Promise!

Wednesday, July 4, 9:23 am EST. Updated the OEXpert 7 Market Timer with the past week’s data, and here is what I’ve got.

The price of GLD is at or below the lowest of its 2 trading bands, and that is a signal. F1 is at 8, and has begun to rise, and that is a signal. F2 is at -4, and that constitutes a signal, and it is also rising. F3 is at 4, and has signaled, and it is trying to commence a turn upward. F4 is at a -4.5, and that is also a signal, and it has turned upward. F5 is at 32, which is under 40, and a signal, and has turned up. Finally, F6 is at 6, and is also on its way up. That’s a signal.

All 7 indicators, from price and F1 thru F6, are all in the camp of saying that market risk for GLD would appear to have been pretty much all wrung out, and that, on top of everything else I have already posted today, and since last week, pretty much says that a real trading opportunity may be right here. It would be worth a try, as you are able to put a very short leash on this trade, and should prices fall back, and price support fail, it would be… Look out below!

So, in any case, I can find NO reason within anything technical that I look at, not to believe that some kind of an opportunity may be at hand. I’m not going to do a thing about it, but to watch. The most daring and nimble among you may want to take a chance here, and to try to take advantage of what might be a real profit-maker, should it turn out.

And, what might be going on here? What might be the issue this is all turning on? I sometimes like to take a guess at that… and, I think it is the fear of full-blown trade tariffs going into place between goods made and shipped between China and the United States; a trade war. But, and I like to do this, I like to think in a totally contrary manner, and here is what I believe until I am proven wrong. I believe a lot of negotiations are going on right now behind the scenes, and I believe that on Friday, one of two things will happen. I believe tariffs will be announced, the world will hold its collective breath, and then the impasse will be broken… Or, I believe that just as the tariff announcement is to be made, it will be announced that an agreement has been struck, and all the world is going to breath this giant collective sigh of relief. But, that’s just me. I’m a glass-is-half-full kind of guy. I’m an optimist, and I believe something good is going to come forth. Stocks will rally like crazy, and any risk capital in metals may come out, BUT, I also believe that other capital will also enter metals to hold support, but for reasons of inflationary concern, as well as a real increase in physical demandĀ for jewelry and industrial purposes… since world-wide economic disaster has been averted, and a ton of new global wealth is just then being created, as well as renewed economic activity to result in growth. You watch… I’ll either be colossally right, or incredibly mistaken.

It doesn’t matter to me. To me, it’s all like a game, and I have my pieces in place everywhere, in stocks, metals, cash… I’m good. I’m ready. Where are you at, and what are you doing?

Harold

Not Braggin’… I’m Just sayin’

Wednesday, July 3, 8:51 am EST. This is my third post of the day. And, there’s likely to be another later still. I occasionally pull the Top 1/3rd of the miners, that trade on the NYSE, OTC or AMEX… none of the pink sheet, or lesser registered issues, and put them in a watchlist. Now, this watchlist of the top third is based upon something akin to Relative Strength, or top recent price performance.

This is totally for what it’s worth, but from out of that top 1/3, based on recent price performance, ALL 16 of those symbols I track, are in that top 1/3. And, since there are now 121 issues in the gold and silver mining industry in this program’s database, and I selected out 40 of them, I guess I can call them the Gold & Silver Top 40?

But, from my top performing AG, all the way down to my poorest performing HL, they’re all in the top 40 I derived from the database, as trading on one of our 3 major exchanges.

And, I’ll also add, I receive a “leading” gold letter from a source to which I have a lifetime subscription at a nominal annual renewal cost, and I have been monitoring their gold and silver stock selections in their own watchlist, and been comparing the relative price performance of theirs to my own all along the way, for these past 2 years, or so… and, well, Babe Ruth used to say, “It’s not braggin’, if you can do it”… but, my own selections, have been outperforming theirs by a considerable amount right from the get-go.

All I had ever done, was bring up all the miners, take out those that weren’t on the 3 major exchanges, ranked them by recent price performance, similar to Relative Strength, graphed them, and selected a bunch having the easiest-to-read and healthiest looking price charts.

Price and volume really do tell a story, and if you know how to read them, you can pretty much discern what that story is, and whether you want to be any part of it, or not.

I hope to get back one more time later today with the results of the updated market timer, OEXpert 7.

Harold

Major Reversal?!?!?

Wednesday, July 4, 7:00 am EST. Let the fireworks begin! I don’t know, but I just posted moments ago, that I saw quite a price anomaly between the metals and the miners that could mean that something greater was going on than only what one can see in the charts of the metals prices.

But, and I find this just as significant… I went to my charts in my stockcharts.com account to study those same 16 I have in a watchlist there, and when I got to GLD, I was stopped in my tracks!

Among the technical indicators I follow there…. First, RSI had gotten well under 30, which is always considered a strongly oversold measure, and is rather rarely seen in the metal during a bull market. Second, the stochastics, at the same time, had not only gotten below a 20 oversold reading… it had gotten crushed right down into the single-digits! Third, and far more importantly to me, GLD had created the quintessential P3 Squeeze between the two technical indicators of PPO and ADX. Fourthly, within the ADX indicator, its 2 lines, one being green and the other red… well, the green +DI is just now crossing above the -DI, which is turning down. This is another thing significant to traders who use ADX. I don’t necessarily expect you to understand what I just wrote, but I do want you to understand that this would appear to be a pretty serious development, just as I was previously saying it might be, due to what I was observing in previous recent posts. I am now adding these signs to everything else to say that… is this anything akin to a major reversal?!?!?

I’m going to update the OEXpert 7, too… and, before I even go there, I’m going to say that probably all 7 indicators within that program are all going to fairly scream that risk is wrung-out. Then, if that is the case, I’m going to recommend that the very most daring of you, if you are so inclined, might want to put a very speculative first-installment of a trade on… nothing crazy, mind you, but perhaps a “first fruit” of what might possibly become a truly big deal.

More later….

Harold

Turning-Point Tuesday?

Wednesday, July 4, 6:33 am EST. Happy Independence Day. May God bless America… yet again!

I made enough about how prices had arrived at critical price support, and I was convinced that gold and silver needed to turn upward very soon. So, was Tuesday that point of decision, and a true reversal?

Fascinating! Let it be said that while gold and silver have just put a bottom in on 7/2, as I was saying last post they needed to… nearly all, or most anyway, of the miners, including the funds and the royalty firms, “anticipated” the turn upward by a couple of trading days! You will recall that I had been saying that the metals were really starting to put on some hurt… but, that the miners were not following suit. I noted that this had to be an anomaly of some sort, as true bear market price action will have the miners faring more poorly than the metals, and that was clearly not the case. In fact, whereas the metals are just coming out of a funk… I show 5 of my 16 symbols I am following, those being AG, PAAS, RGLD, WPM and FSM, at, or very near to, 6-month new high prices! That’s a big deal! Why?

Understand that every trader knows that the last “big” top in the metals was put in place back on 1/24+25… and, in some instances now… that top is being taken out by some of these miners, while the metals have been struggling, and putting in an important price support bottom!

I think we need to be very much on alert. This is no accident. Something is up, and I’m going to keep a close eye on things. When this all breaks out, and then everyone else, that wants to be any part of it, starts to pile on… we want to be among the first to get in. That’s my hope! And, I hope to reap a large return by doing so. Come along, this could be a lot of fun!

Harold

I Said I’d Have to be Away!

Monday, July 2, 6:00 pm EST. It was a big, BIG, family wedding. My step-daughter was married last Thursday evening in Newport, RI. Even I was stunned by all the planning and the work that went into it… Wow! And, we had family here at the house… some are still here!

Any way… what has happened? I need to open my stock program and look at all the charts. On the face of the news and all, I don’t have reason to think anything good has been going on… so, let’s see. Let’s take ’em one at a time, shall we?

AG is looking awesome! FSM is great! PAAS is hangin’ right in there! RGLD is super! WPM, the other royalty firm, is also super! GDX is looking alright. SGDM is as GDX…

Now, GLD is right at an incredibly important price support point. If you draw a line from the Dec ’15 low, to the Dec ’16 low, and extend it right out to today… Price is right now on that very line!!! This is a critical point! Gold, via GLD, looks as if it had fallen out of bed since 6/14, but the miners have not!

SILJ is in good shape. Silver, in the form of SLV, is very near to the important price low and support of Dec. ’17. And, it, too, like gold, appears to have fallen out of bed since 6/14… the very last time price tested overhead resistance and failed. ABX looks to be in good shape. NUGT is not hurting. SSRM is okay. PVG continues to hold up. HL’s hurting somewhat, but it does not appear to be fatal. CDE is right back to where I saw something of a tide change on 3/20, so it may be a place of price support for it.

So, seriously… How can the metals be faring so poorly, and they are, but their respective miners are not?!?!? That is not what a bear market in metals looks like. The metals themselves, are at, or arriving at, critical price support junctures at this point, but the miners, themselves, are looking far better on their price charts.

I have not called for, and I have not put any trades on. I won’t until a considerable change shows itself in the metals, and the miners commence to respond to it. I’m watching them, and I am poised to do something about it, when the “hand is played.” It’s not over yet… this current price support being tested here, would have to fail, and the miners would likely experience a collapse, as traders and investors vomit them up, in order to get them out of their hands. And, then, were something like that to take place, a really serious bottom would likely be put in place right at that point… The point of maximum pain, and of the proverbial “blood flowing in the streets.” Do I think anything like that will happen. I’m sure I don’t know…

But, this I do know. We still have the late ’15/early ’16 Bear Market bottom in place, from which a new Bull was born. The 12/16 lows are still in place, and above, or higher, than the 12/15 lows. After that, there is a higher bottom that has proven to be incredible support that shows on the chart at 3/17, 5/17, 7/17, 12/17 and more recently in February and March of ’18. All of that is still in place, unviolated… and we have a pattern of sideways consolidation going on since March.

The metals are looking ominous and scary, but the miners are not. I’m still very hopeful, and I still think that before ’18 ends, we’re going see our hope realized. If all should fail… I’ll see it in the charts, and I will tell you.

Harold

The Timer is All In!

Tuesday, June 26, 10:05 pm EST. This is totally FWIW. The OEXpert 7 Market Timing Program is all-in, as far as the measures of risk with GLDĀ are concerned.

The price of GLD is at an important support level, as I draw the line. In the Xpert, price is below its 2 lower trading bands, and is a signal. F1 is at 9, and being under 10, that is a signal. F2 is at -4, and that constitutes a signal. F3 reads just 1, and that is, for sure, a signal. F4 is at -3, and that makes for another signaling low-risk. F5 is below the 40 level, with a reading of 37, and that, too, is in the signaling area. Finally, F6 measures just 2, and has just hit 0 a couple of days back. It is signaling a lo-risk situation, along with everything else.

Keep this one thing in mind, however, technical measures are very useful, but not absolute. The fundamental matters are what has been driving the metals and these indicators down, and they certainly could continue to do so… however, the technicals take no such fundamental matters into account, and they are saying… we could look for an actual reversal to the upside in the metals from right about here… and now.

I have an obligation, and it may keep me from posting until the weekend… but, I’ll make every effort to stay on top of the situation. But, as far as the timer is concerned… All systems are Go! Let’s see how this plays out!

Harold

No Worries?

Tuesday, June 26, 9:14 pm EST. I’ll start worrying, when the price charts break down, and long-term price support fails… Has any? Let’s see.

AG no, RGLD no, PAAS no, FSM no, WPM no, PVG no, SGDM no, SILJ no, GDX no.

Silver, in the form of SLV is at support, and retesting it again. It got back there on Tuesday 6/19, one week ago… and, we’re here again.

Gold, in the form of GLD is doing a similar thing. I see it as being at a line of support, and this one, and another coming up to meet it, are both quite strong. The fate of the bull market in gold is somewhat hanging on these.

SSRM no, ABX can’t exactly tell, HL no, NUGT no, and CDE no. The average of all 16, viewed as one, like its own index… it is, of course, because all its constituent parts are, holding up just fine to this point in time.

There’s plenty of weakness, for sure. The metals themselves are now testing their respective places of price support, and all of the miners and mining funds are holding up considerably better. This is not how bear markets in these things work. It’s just a “scaredy-bull”!

I need to update the timer, both for stocks and for gold. The technical measures of risk should be getting somewhat closer to giving us a signal? We’ll see.

Harold

I Feel So Guilty!

Saturday, June 23, 7:50 am EST. What in the world happened to this week that I didn’t post anything since last Monday, the 18th? I couldn’t believe it, when I saw that!

So, what was I doing all week? I don’t really know. I have no excuse. Fortunately, for you, you all get precisely what you pay for! If I were trying to derive an income from you for this. If there was a charge involved for this service… I’d be negligent, and I’d be guilty of letting you down.

So, what did happen this week… well, just about nothing. But, let me state that I have some true achievers, some outperformers, among my miners. I want to list those that are doing extraordinarily well. Understand, we’ve some ‘turning-point’ dates in the charts, that are clear, now, in hindsight. Those dates are 2/9, 3/1 and 3/20. I’ve noted 3/20 quite a number of times, and 3/1 several times. I’ve not said much, or anything, about 2/9, because it was nearly invisible. But here’s what those 3 dates together mean… a head-and-shoulders bottom, formed after the December ’17 lows, and the late January top. What we have are technical price bounds… December bottom, January top, and 2/9, 3/1 and 3/20 head-and-shoulders-bottom… We have a Bull Market scenario playing out very slowly, even sleepily, that we have been long watching… waiting for that day, and opportunity, when it’s going to launch into something truly serious, and hugely profitable for us.

For now, I have some good miners in AG, PAAS, PVG, RGLD, FSM, HL is slowly working out, again since 3/20, WPM and SSRM. My only miner that isn’t presently giving me any love, is CDE. It is so flat, and unmoving at present… but, when the time comes, I trust that it will. Now, nearly all these are doing better than the mining funds that I follow; specifically, SGDM, GDX and NUGT. So, I do know how to pick individual miners!

Beyond all that though, is this: The metals, gold and silver, as represented in my work by the symbols, GLD and SLV, both had a most extraordinary week, in that both went all the way down to very strong price support lines I had long ago put in place, and had been following and watching. Silver, on 6/20 and 21 this past week, tested support and it held, which had to be part of that reason why the metal popped as well as it did on Friday, regardless of other reasons given anywhere else. Gold, too, tested a big-time price support level that I had long-drawn from 1/27/17, 7/7,10,11/17, 12/12/17 to last Wed. and Thurs. Huge support held… and, it lifted again Friday… all the while, so many miners were doing so much better, which could have told someone that support was expected to hold.

Remember, In bull markets, the miners typically tend to do better than the metals, and in bear markets, they typically tend to do worse. The price action, and the chart price patterns of the metals and the miners are all saying this is an actual bull market that just hasn’t truly taken off yet to give investors and traders the big gains that we all should expect are going to come to us… when they finally do take-off. When? Perhaps commencing in this year of 2018. But, I, of course, can’t know that… But, I can keep watching!

Support has held, resistance is overhead. Resistance is not so far away that it could be said that if you waited until it was broken, that you’d be too late. Not at all! On the other hand, by waiting, and watching, and looking for the resistance to be broken, and for the volume to expand bigly, one can almost certainly join in, and experience huge capital gains in a relatively short period of time. That’s why I’m here. And, even if I don’t post daily, for some days at a time… I am NOT going to miss the opportunity, when it arises. You’re getting everything that you paid for! Do I feel guilty? Nah…..

Harold

 

Ho-Hum Monday, For Sure!

Monday, June 18, 4:20 pm EST. Where are we? Is anything going to happen? Where do things stand? Is there any reason to either be concerned or excited?

Silver and gold both had another poor day. Nothing like last Friday, but there was nothing there today to get excited about… and, yet, the miners did not follow suit. Half were off a bit, but the other half actually closed up! Like what I noted my last post… this is not a negative. This is a positive. When metals go weak and wobbly, the miners do worse. That the miners are not being sold off with abandon, while the metals take it pretty hard, is a positive, and we need to chalk it up as one, and keep on watching and waiting.

The overall, bigger picture, is still a bullish one, and at some point, those who keep watch, are likely to see the launch of a true bull market rally, that’s going to put some big bucks in our pockets… one a these days!

Harold