Right On Top Of Everything!

Blowing my own horn just a bit, but… I called a low-risk entry opportunity the very end of May and first part of June. That was when we got my OEXpert 7 market timer up and running with gold price data, and it was signalling at that very time that risk was low, and an opportunity to buy was at hand. I then said in just the past week, that I saw price data getting to a place of price support, and to look for a possible turn, which took place just then. So much for my blowing my own horn.

Actually, I’m not done just quite yet. I started and jumped in aggressively on Friday, April 8, as I saw the metals and miners moving upward mightily on volume that day. Since then, and in less than 4 months time, I have 5 of my current precious metals stock selections that have at least doubled. Those 5 being AG, CDE, FSM, HL and SLW. The average gain for all 16 of my metals related stocks is 63%!

Today was another very good day. We’ve many breakouts, and new highs. If this is going to run any distance, volume must pick up. Let’s see if it did today. The charts speak to me, and they tell me what’s up.

I’ll first list those that rose well, and on expanding volume, above the norm: CDE, IAG and SLV.

Others only rose on average volume, not what I’d prefer to see: MUX, HL, AG, RIC, SLW, RGLD, GDX and GLD.

Then, there were others up, but on light volume, which is discouraging, as with: ASM, PVG, FSM, SSRI, PAAS, SGDM and ABX.

Even one that declined, and on big volume… perhaps a sale candidate? AUY. Gonna have to look into this…….

Now my enthusiasm has been totally tempered. I don’t like the volume on today’s move. It doesn’t show enthusiasm or even great conviction. According to an average of all volume data, it was not even 3% greater. The move becomes suspect, when volume doesn’t swell.

We have this going for us, however, the charts patterns themselves, and the number of those making new price highs, having broken out, could attract all new attention on their own, and generate a run… but, what we’ve seen this week already does not qualify as the kicking off of any great run up in the metals and their miners… yet! But, I have a full confidence that they will, at some point in the future, because, well… you know, it’s a Bull Market!

Those that have broken out into new price highs are: CDE, HL, IAG, AG, RIC, SLW, PAAS, RGLD and GDX. That’s 9 of the 19 symbols I track here. It could kick-off something!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Is This Bullish, Too?

Metals ended up closing down for the day, when earlier it had been looking stronger. Gold and silver were both off some, but among our miners, I see as much green as I do red in my trading account. That ought to be a positive and a plus. Let’s see if the charts say anything different… and, the volume? I’d expect it to be right around average for Thursday.

There are those that rose today, and volume was large, like: CDE and IAG.

Others, rose, but on something around average volume, like: HL, ASM, PVG, AG, SLW and RIC.

We’ve decliners on something like average volume, as with: MUX, AUY, ABX and SLV.

But others only fell on light volume, like: FSM, SSRI, SGDM, GDX and GLD.

Then, the risers on light volume: RGLD and PAAS.

What’s the take away from today’s price action? With metals off a little bit, and the miners split, half up and half down, all on an average of 17% lower volume. It was a quiet day of ‘marking time’, but it is in no way to be considered as any kind of a threat to the Bull Market. It’s healthy, catching a breath, and at some point in time, is almost certainly going to head even higher. You’ll see.

O, and we had new highs, while the metals had fallen off some… that is a very bullish sign in itself. See: CDE, HL, IAG, SLW and RIC, as 5 such examples.

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6:30 am EST and the metals are both down, but only a very little amount… not enough, at this time, to be of any hurt. It’s a Bull Market, ya know!

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Minutes before the open, a slow growth economic report has pretty much put a stake thru the heart of any interest rate increases any time soon… meaning loose monetary policy will prevail, and metals prices go higher. They immediately spiked on that news!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Invest Alongside 5 Living Legends

This JUST came my way, and I want to share it with you….

“There are five living legends in the natural resource world. I suggest you watch what they do, watch what they buy, and hear what they have to say. And you can invest alongside them by buying shares of their companies. (Keep in mind, some of them are small, volatile, and risky.)

Who are the five “living legends”?

Robert Quartermain. The company he grew from $2 million to $2 billion in 25 years was Silver Standard Resources (SSRI). It’s still among the world’s largest silver producers. Now, Quartermain is the chairman and CEO of Pretium Resources (PVG). Pretium owns the Brucejack Project in British Columbia, Canada. It’s one of the largest and highest-grade undeveloped gold projects in the world.

Next up is Ross Beaty. Beaty has 45 years of industry experience and founded Pan American Silver (PAAS). Although he’s less involved in the company now, he’s still chairman of the $3 billion company. Beaty has a handful of other huge successes under his belt, too.

Now, he is a major shareholder in Anfield Gold (ANF on the Toronto Venture Exchange), a $180 million company with a gold mine in Brazil.

The next panel member was Robert McEwen. McEwen founded Goldcorp (GG), and for a long time was chairman and CEO. Goldcorp is the second-largest gold miner in the world with a $12 billion market cap.

More recently, he founded McEwen Mining (MUX), a $1.3 billion gold and silver explorer and producer. He invested $127 million of his own money into the company and owns 25% of it. He earns just $1 a year in compensation. So his interests are completely aligned with those of his fellow shareholders.

The fourth panel member was Randy Smallwood. Smallwood holds a geological engineering degree and worked for a few different mining companies, starting in the early 1990s. He helped build Goldcorp (GG) into one of the largest, most profitable gold companies in the world.

Today, Smallwood is president and CEO of Silver Wheaton (SLW), the $12 billion precious metals streaming company.

Finally, Robert Friedland is likely the best-known, most successful member of the panel. Early this year he was inducted into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame. Friedland has led the discovery and development of several world-class mineral projects around the world.

Now, he runs Ivanhoe Mines (IVN on the Toronto Stock Exchange)… a $970 million company based in Canada, with three major projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. The deposits hold copper, platinum, palladium, gold, nickel, rhodium, and zinc.”

 

Why share this with you… well, we own SSRI and PVG. We’ve shares in PAAS. Bought a slug of MUX, and a bunch of SLW, too. I’ll look closer at the others, and determine whether they might not ought to be a part of our effort here. How’m I doin’?

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Big Day!

Wednesday was a pretty big day! Gold rose $20 and oz, and silver $.74. This represented a 1.52% rise in gold, and 3.75% in silver. Both substantial. A look in on my trading account showed all green, and with some fairly big moves, too. My guess is that volume should be substantial… at least average, and probably greater.

What will the individual charts say?

That is correct… large gains, on big volume in: CDE, MUX, IAG, HL, SLW, AUY, GDX, SLV and GLD.

On merely average volume with: AG, FSM, PVG, SSRI, RIC and ABX.

And, on small volume too, though, as with: ASM, RGLD, SGDM and PAAS.

Well, I’ve got to say, I expected more volume than what I saw, though the overall average volume increase for all 19 symbols was 32% greater, and that is a pretty substantial increase. I’m satisfied with that. 32% more is a decent increase.

The Bull Market is intact, and may even be attempting to make another move upward, as 4 of our holdings, CDE, IAG, SLW and RIC closed at new highs. Will traders take note, and jump aboard this train that may be pulling out of the station… tomorrow may tell!

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Thursday morning, and the metals are up a tiny fraction. There was no true breakout action overseas last night. That’s fine. Let’s see what a day of trading with New York brings, as it opens in 2 more hours.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

How Sweet It Is!

I remember Jackie Gleason. He was an absolute hoot! When I looked at the metals prices, and then at my trading account. The first thought that came to me was… How sweet it is! Yeh, support held… BUT, we want to know how much conviction was behind it. The more volume there was, the more traders believe in the price support level that just held. Was it a truly big deal and the market is turning here, or… was it just a tepid effort, a hope and a prayer, that this might hold here and turn. That’s what the charts ought to tell us.

First up, are those that rose, and they all did, but these on merely average volume: CDE, AG and GDX.

We’ve got some that rose on light volume, like: ASM, RGLD, HL, SLW, MUX, FSM, PVG, SSRI, RIC, PAAS, SGDM, AUY, ABX, SLV and GLD.

Then, we do have one that showed conviction with big volume: IAG.

This is incredibly simple to interpret. Conviction was not present, but the idea on the part of some to take a risk was. Now, what we need to see, is either more courage and conviction, resulting in a considerable increase in volume, or… the lack of conviction and volume will cause others to rethink their positions, and consider selling. The average volume for all 19 symbols I track was off by 1/5th, a full 21%… that is not encouraging!

This market is going out on a limb now. We’re in it, and we get to watch it, but there’s analysis going on, the consensus, when it kicks in, will drive it further up, or will say that this isn’t going to work at this level of support and get out, taking it through, and down to the next level of support. Overnight tonite, and Wednesday here, should give us more insight. Check in to find out.

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A check in at stockcharts.com would suggest that those oversold technical indicators that were saying that risk among these issues might be about wrung out, also reversed today, as I looked in on them, and would be interpreted by others trading these stocks, as likely buy signals. Let’s see tomorrow if that encourages more buying, and results in a real reversal to the upside.

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A check in with a recognized expert technical analyst says that their timing efforts have just given a green light to the metals and miners, but also cautioned by recommending very tight stops under the most recent lows, which corresponds with what I stated… conviction is low, but risk-takers are getting in, hoping this is the turn. But, if it is not, they’ll be getting out quickly! We have been adequately apprised and warned.

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Wednesday morning, as of 7:11 am EST… on the Kitco site, where I check on prices, gold and silver are hanging right in there at the very levels we were looking at Tuesday evening. They found support, and that support has held, so far. If it should continue to do so, risk will be coming out, and the base for the next lift-off would be being put in place… let us watch and wait.

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9:20 am EST, and something’s up! Metals have advanced some, especially silver, and mining share prices should open very well. If it should hold, support was absolutely found, and a possible new launch might commence. Let’s see!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Metals Still Correcting

Gold slipped back another $7, and silver dropped another $.09. Checking in on the miners though, there was considerably more pessimism. I don’t know, so we’ll have to look in on the volume, to see if any great amount of fear is creeping in yet.

The first one I see was down on only about average volume, CDE, as were these others; SLW, HL, IAG, AG, MUX, ABX and GLD.

Others only fell back on light volume, as with: ASM, SSRI, PVG, RIC, FSM, RGLD, PAAS, SLV and AUY.

Losers on big volume: SGDM and GDX.

Well, the average volume of all of them was nearly identical to Friday’s, and that was not a fearful day either. Many are now near or right at what I perceive to be the first real place of technical price support. So, now I need to update my timer. Check with indicators at stockcharts.com, and at another new site I’ve recently found. I’d like to get a feel for whether there’s reason to think this should hold about here, or if maybe it’s time to just observe my stops and bail, taking all the profit that is left, and wait for another opportunity to get back in… a dangerous decision. What if I don’t find a low-risk entry, and this market were to turn back up on me, while I’m not in? See what I mean?

I have no doubt this is a new long-term Bull Market, but the risks and dangers can be great and considerable. When fear should come in, the declines will be steeper, and the volume far greater. Such an event would likely take place when traders believe price support has failed. Obviously, they don’t think so yet, nor do I.

Tomorrow could be telling. Let’s see what Tuesday morning will bring.

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A look in on all of them at stockcharts.com, using those technicals I’ve set up to watch them confirms that they are at the first level of support, but it’s not the only one. This is the first, and perhaps the weakest. It might likely break this one, to decline to the next level, which would be much stronger than this one. further, as I update the timer, 3 of the indicators are very close to signaling low risk, while the other 3 would require considerably more. As I am an investor, I will advise traders to sell, if the first support fails, if they want to secure profits; but I will hold out, and hope to catch a low-risk entry signal to actually add to my positions, as I am quite certain this is still the very early stages of a huge Bull Market, and I want to be aboard for when the really big moves come… as I believe they will!

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Gold and silver have been staging something of a rebound overnight, as the fall to support would have suggested. Should it prove resilient, the market can launch from here, if it truly catches a bid, and starts to go… many more will climb aboard to push it higher. Should it be bought? Watch for a larger price and volume move to the upside than we have been seeing lately, to say Yes to that question.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

It’s Still a Bull!

Gold and silver closed down some today… yet, our miners are split almost evenly, some up and some down. And, hardly any of those were big moves. Besides price support holding, the overall stock price action, in the light of the metals price move, is Bullish! I would not expect any extraordinary volume on a day like today, in fact, I’d be more inclined to expect it was on the light side. What will the charts say after Friday’s close today?

So, the first I find is as I had suspected, and these others, all having risen, but on light volume: CDE, SLW, ASM, PVG, RIC, PAAS and ABX.

The decliners appear to also have been on light volume, like: HL, SSRI, FSM, AG, MUX, RGLD, GDX, SLV, AUY and GLD.

Now, I’ve a decliner on big volume, as with: IAG.

And a gainer on big volume: SGDM.

Volume was very light Friday, for the average of all 19 symbols, volume was down 46%! The decline in the prices of gold and silver today were considered to have been relatively meaningless. Further, technical price support is in place and holding everywhere. This is a Bull Market, and it is giving off nothing, but solid Bullish signs, so far. And, despite the recent scare and pain inflicted, we’re still ahead by more than 50% in just 3 1/2 months!

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Checking in Monday morning just after 7:00 EST, the metals are still in a process of correction. Gold and silver are both off enough to likely pull shares prices down right from the open. Price support has held, but it may be about to be challenged as early as today in most of the issues, unless the metals can catch a bid.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Quick Recovery?

Wow, did I recently say that we have yet to see much volatility come into the precious metals markets? Well, it looks like it’s beginning to show up!

I was quite shocked to see such a rapid recovery in price as they did on Thursday. This would cause me to think that the volume, if it would be the best Bull Market confirming type of situation, would be higher than the smash on Wednesday. That would be encouraging. If volume were considerably less, than the recovery buying would appear to be timid. What will the charts say?

I should start by saying that the decline of Wednesday was 4.62% among the 19 symbols I have in a watchlist, whereas the Thursday recovery came back by an average of only 2.70%. That one thing already tempers my enthusiasm, and gives me some cause for concern. Secondly, the average volume did increase for Thursday. Should that give me hope? Well, it increased by only… 3.3%. No, that is not too particularly reassuring either. I’m not so sanguine now.

I begin with those that recovered in price, but on lower volume than seen in their decline, and lower than their average volume, which gives me no confidence: CDE, SLW, SSRI, FSM, PVG, RIC, PAAS, RGLD, AUY and GLD.

Others rose, and on decent volume that was above their average, but not greater than their Wednesday ‘smash’ volume. That’s somewhat encouraging, but doesn’t erase concern: HL, AG, GDX, SLV and ABX.

Now, I’ve got those that rose more than they fell, and on greater volume than their fall day. That IS encouraging, but there’s only 2: IAG and SGDM.

One, just one, fell on Thursday, and volume was pretty great. I need to look into the reason why to see if there as news about this one we need to know, and that would be ASM.

Another, the one I feared was in need of being sold after Wednesday, MUX, recovered in price well… back above my stop line, but volume was much lower than the sell-off, and even a bit below its average, so I still think it needs to be watched very carefully.

The overall impression, which I derive from charting the average of all 19 symbols as one, is that the price recovery was actually a good one, and the volume was only average, not great. Volatility has come to the market, and now our level of alertness needs to rise. It’s more likely to get worse, than better, and so we need to be prepared to jettison stocks and preserve profits… and, if we do that, we also need to pray that we get a good re-entry signal like the one the timer gave us back on the very end of May and first part of June!

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After Thursday’s recovery, whereas I had been up as much as 61.5% recently, my miners are back to being ahead by 53%. Minutes before the market’s 9:30 open, gold is down $7, and silver off $.14. The miners will be opening lower as a result. Volatility is here, and it’s going to be a little rocky for awhile!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

SMASH!

Gold ended the day off $16.40 or 1.23%. Silver lost $.51 or 2.54%. What was that all about? I don’t know yet, but I do know that nearly all of that took place overnight, before the 9:30 am New York open. It wasn’t due to some crazy move in the dollar… I checked.

In any case, I have to expect big volume was involved in our miners, and they were all down, by quite a bit! The average loss was 4.62%

Losers on big volume were as follows: CDE, ASM, SLW, SSRI, HL on huge volume, IAG, PVG, FSM, RIC, AG, SGDM, MUX, SLV, GDX, AUY and ABX.

On lighter than average volume… really! PAAS, RGLD and GLD.

Fascinating that GLD, itself, did NOT decline on any big volume, at all. In fact, it declined on lower than average volume! As did PAAS and RGLD.

Nevertheless, one broke price support, and unless it shows signs of recovery tomorrow, I’m going to have to act with discipline and sell it. That would be MUX. ABX is getting close. In fact, despite the low volume, GLD is also getting quite close. Total average volume for all was only 33% higher, not too terribly great actually.

So, what was the cause. I have not learned of it yet. When I do, I’ll put it out here. But, caution is the watchword, and the preservation of profit is paramount at this point! Whereas I had as much as a 61% gain in our miners, that now stands at 48.6%. It was quite the hit!

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6:50 am EST, metals are bouncing, and shares prices of miners are bouncing overseas with them. I have a sell in MUX, but I need to see how it opens. Since yesterday was so very hard on it, on the biggest volume spike, it may rebound rather handsomely. I’m going to try to find reason(s) for the smash, and whether anything substantive actually happened. The Bull technically remains intact, only MUX has closed below support. Being the small cap that it is, just $1 billion,  it does not require any super effort to hurt it worse than others. The greater sense is to watch GLD and SLV, and a charted average of all the holdings, for the better concept as to when real danger exists.

Nevertheless, if MUX does not recover intra-day, to look at least as good as the others, it will need to be sold, but a profit taken!

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I appreciate the education I’m receiving, being relatively new to metals investing/trading as I am. First, it is not at all common, I now understand, for the metals to go quite dull during the summer. In the same way that stocks can be quit languid in the summer, so, too, do the metals. That’s helpful. Second, anywhere I’ve looked, the fundamental picture for the metals remains untouched. Expert analysts are saying that come the fall, new highs will be with us, as everything that’s been driving them, is still in place.

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Okay, so the real matter, according to analysts, is because yesterday, even though the $USD had been rising since the very end of April/first of May, it broke out through the triple top that had formed in June, to make new recent highs. Rising dollar, falling gold… yet that wasn’t the case while it was rising in May and June… Go figure!

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Checking in on MUX before the open… It is 9:00 am EST, and the market-maker has MUX marked up to a current bid of $3.82, some 7 cents above yesterday’s close, and about 2% higher. I’m seeing a lot of our miners having their pre-open bids set considerably higher than yesterday’s close… let’s see how the day goes!

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15 minutes before the close, and, man, this was a different day, wasn’t it? Even MUX is rebounding better than most! 😉

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

This Requires a Post All Its Own!

Friends, I do not know what is happening, or why… but I can tell you this much, at this time. The metal prices have clearly gone from consolidating, into what could be almost described as a crash!

It is 8:36 am EST, and gold is off all of $15.50, as I type, while silver has lost $.40.

Expect the prices at the open for all of our miners to be hard hit.

You might want to wait until as long as, or after 10:30 am EST to consider selling some or, possibly even, all of your holdings, in order to retain as much profit as you has as possible!

As always, I’ll get back with more, as I learn of it!

Harold F Crowell