Consolidating Well

Monday, July 29, 9:09 am EST. After the metal popped on 6/20, it commenced to rise some more, and then go into a correction. The correction was short and sweet, as I had noted, and ended on 7/10. Gold continued to rise, even made new highs on 7/18. It then fell back again, and has been consolidating since.

But, and here’s the point of the matter. The indicators within the timer, due to the nature of the price action since 6/20, and for the past 5 1/2 weeks, have been in the process of resetting. Price may still be well above its upper trading band in the timing program, but F1 has been dropping toward the next low-risk entry signal, and is halfway there already, and still on the decline. F2 has also been falling hard, and is well on its way toward its next signal. It’s at -1, and when it gets to -4, it will likely signal first. F3 is hanging up high, at 77… This one is not heading for a signal. F4 reads about 2, and near halfway to a signal. F5 is falling from somewhere off the chart, and is at 78, headed for the 40 signal level, nearly halfway there. With F6 now at 53… coming off a peak at 96; it is also about halfway to its next signal.

So, what shall we conclude? The OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timing Program is good at calling gold when it is in a bull market, such as it has been at least since some time in last October. And, at this time, should it continue to consolidate, or even go into a more corrective mode, will signal another low-risk market entry opportunity perhaps as early as in this summer still, before fall should come.

I’ll try to stay right on top of it, and call it as I see it!

Harold

Correction Over?

Wednesday, July 24, 8:15 am EST. Well, one thing seems certain, I’m reading all kinds of news headlines that indicate that global economic growth is slowing. And, the central bank response seems to be typical… too little, too late. Yes, they spoke of a cut. And, yes, it appears certain there will be one. But, are they behind, and not out in front? They typically are, so it is believed that they are behind and late again.

If so, the money spigots are opening, and the metals will be a prime beneficiary. We’re seeing a metals price response this morning already… could be in response to those financial news headlines I saw. I’ll learn just what’s driving it later. And, as I had suggested only a little while back, silver is really playing a game of catch-up, and is far outperforming gold recently, which has been really good for our silver related holdings!

I’m becoming more convinced by the day that this is going to be a big one, and that we are going to be able to make a great deal from the rally to come… We’ve done pretty good, so far, already!

This morning’s price action indicates to me that the correction since last week’s big move, which I suggested might correct, and do so quickly, may possibly be over already. Let’s see how today shakes out by trading’s end!

Harold

And… WOW!

Friday, July 19. Ummm, no way around this… I called it again. I said that what we saw Wednesday was a true lift-off, and that Thursday could be a for-real follow-through day… It was, and for the very reason I said it could be… Traders are waking up to this sector, and have begun to throw money into it.

Let me begin. The price gains and volume Thursday were monstrous! Gold and silver both DID make new 6-month price highs, as I had hoped, and the miners, nearly all, rose on big, big volume!

I have 56 miners in my database listed on a major exchange… NYSE, OTC or AMEX. The average price gain for all of them was 3.25%, and the volume exploded 100% greater than the 50-day average for volume. Volume for my 13 symbols rose 121%. It was an incredible day!

I hope you participated in it… I sure did! The move commenced on May 31, and has already lifted the average of all miners by 32%! We can expect a little profit-taking at this point, but it should likely be rather short and sweet, I would think.

Harold

We Have Lift-Off?

Wednesday, July 17, 5:13 pm EST. Well, what are we looking at today? I don’t know when it happened today, but wow… Ah, I see… Between 10 am and noon today, gold got a good lift-off. And, as of today, also, my short-term measure of relative strength shows silver has begun to outperform gold, it now being ranked above gold on my list!

NUGT is at the top, as it should, and gold and silver as GLD and SLV are at the bottom, with SLV now beginning to outperform GLD… all very positive signs of a Bull Rally in the metals behaving and performing just as one would expect!

Going to the charts, I see new 6-month high prices for NUGT, AG, PVG, KL, SSRM, even SILJ is just about there, RGLD, WPM, SGDM, GOLD, GDX, SLV is closing in on a new 6-month high as it catches up, and GLD is getting very close, as well.

So, the miners are making new highs, as the metals are about to… this is also very typical of a newly emerging bull rally! And the volume for all the listed issues was 53% greater than its 50-day avg of volume… another huge plus! With the average price of all lifting to a new high, rising today by 3.76%!

This is it, folks, this is what a real bull market rally lift-off looks like! New high prices. BIG price gain. All on expanding volume, with the miners seriously running ahead of the metals themselves! We have lift-off!

Are you on board? If the precious metals prices for gold and silver should also breakout into new highs, say as early as tomorrow, I would expect things to really start to get exciting!!!

Harold

Hi-Ho Silver… Away!

July 17, 10:12 am EST. It was only back on July 8 that I posted about silver, and how that it had been long out of step with gold, and was ‘due’ to catch up. Well, it’s catching up, and in a pretty big way, too!

Silver has commenced to play catch-up, and has been far outperforming gold here in just the past couple of days, and today is a perfect example of it, too!

Our silver related investments are doing great… especially compared to our gold related holdings at this time… even they are not always correlated and moving in lock-step… all of which helps to further smooth out your portfolio’s value and price movement!

Got Silver?

Harold

 

New 6-Month Highs, but Gravity Bound!

Monday July 15, 8:42 pm EST. Prices are still quite volatile, and still hung up in this $1,400 gold area!

Sorting my 13 symbols by a measure of near-term relative strength, NUGT is still on top. GLD and SLV are still on the bottom, and all our other mining symbols are in between… Just as would be expected if the metals and miners were in a healthy bull rally, as I have written before recently.

A look at all the charts in a 6-month time frame, and they are what could be thought of as being a picture of bullish health. This commenced on May 31st, and a new level of support having been established with the price lows of June 20 thru July 5.

Of interest, is the nominal new highs made today, but with seriously declining volume. The price move was small, and the volume weak… It made new 6-month highs, but there’s no conviction there to make it breakaway. Will Tuesday lend any new impetus?

Harold

To Be Expected

Friday, July 12, 8:50 am EST. I’ve been watching considerable volatility in the metals prices the past 18 hours or so… It is to be expected when trading around a truly major hurdle and point of resistance… $1,400 gold.

It’ll break. Some day. Perhaps soon. And, almost certainly to the upside. All signs are pointing to a major effort by all the world’s central banks to devalue their nation’s currency in another whole new round and race to the bottom, or 0.

The prime beneficiary of all that kind of stuff will be gold and silver. It’s right now going at the cryptos, but, I don’t know… They’re so limited. Safety, security and protection from theft are still issues. Attention will shine brighter on metals, and probably soon. There’s tangible, intrinsic value in them, just as there always has since the dawn of civilization nearly 5,000 years ago.

Harold

A True Inside Sort of Day

Thursday, July 11, 6:33 pm EST. Move along, folks… There’s nothing to see here!

A check of all the charts shows that neither price nor volume were saying anything. An effort to go higher started the day, but after a while, selling overcame any early gains and prices closed lower for most, but not in any meaningful fashion.

A look at trading overseas right now shows a bit of recovery underway, but not so much as to undo all that was lost here during the day. May it be consolidation around the highs, more resistance selling into the buying?

The fundamental picture would seem to say that lots more liquidity is going to be injected into the markets, banking system and economy, and that would spell higher metals prices.

Harold

Healthy Bull Market?

Wednesday, July 10, 6:09 pm EST. In my analyzer, as I rank the 13 symbols by the proprietary relative strength measure it calculates… NUGT is at the top, and GLD and SLV are at the bottom, with all the miners somewhere between the 2. When I see them sorted in that manner, I see that there is a healthy bull rally in place.

Next, all this has been going on all around the all-important $1,400 gold price level I identified quite some time back as being vital and crucial, and so it has been being! With the Fed accommodating, and the dollar so likely to weaken… in fact, all currencies in a process of being weakened… gold is going to climb.

It shouldn’t be too terribly long before it breaks away from this $1,400 area, where so much resistance has been situated. It’s perfectly fine to add some shares, open some positions on weakness under, and about the $1,390 price support area.

But, my AG, PVG, GOLD and RGLD have all just made new highs. GDX is about to. Opportunity has been, and is still knocking. It is still so very early in this whole ‘game’. So few have yet to wake up to it.

A look at all of the exchange-listed issues as one index… It just barely closed at a new high today, and the volume is looking up again. All the signs of a healthy bull market appear to be in place, and it just might be that another whole new bull rally run may be just about to commence, too!

Harold

Just What is it With Silver?

Monday, July 8: This just came in, and I thought it pertinent…

“Here’s the Deal With Silver…
and How to Trade It

There are no two ways about it…

Silver has disappointed.

Gold is up 9% in 2019… And it’s up 19% from its 52-week low, which it hit last August.

And while silver is up 8% from its 52-week low – which it hit in November – it’s down 3% so far this year.

So you may be asking yourself, “What’s the deal?”

We’ll examine that question. And we’ll show you what to do if you’re thinking about trading silver or silver stocks.

If you’ve been following the precious metals market for long, you know that gold and silver often trade “out of sync” for a few days or even weeks at a time. For one reason or another, one will rise while the other falls. But the two usually trend in the same direction.

In the chart below, you can see the price action in the two precious metals since the start of the year. For short stretches of time, the two have moved in the same direction – up through mid-February, down through late May, and up through today.

But silver’s rallies have been smaller than those in gold and its decline was larger. The result is a surprising relative weakness for silver…

We’ve written about this relative weakness before. In early May, we looked at the gold-to-silver ratio.

We explained…

As regular readers know, by looking at a ratio chart , we can see which of the two metals is relatively cheap and which is relatively expensive. In the chart below, you can see the ratio of gold to silver. This shows how many ounces of silver it “costs” to buy one ounce of gold.

In the updated version of that chart below, you can see that the gold-to-silver ratio has continued to climb. On Friday, it was at a multi-decade high of 93…

This is an extreme situation, for sure… and a rare one.

Have we moved into a “new normal,” in which silver and gold are disconnected and the ratio no longer matters? We don’t think so…

The relationship between gold and silver is too strong. Their values have been tied together – either tightly or loosely – for thousands of years. And that bond isn’t likely to break now.

Will the ratio climb all the way back up to 100, or beyond? Maybe. But if you’re considering buying silver or silver stocks today, that really doesn’t matter…

We know that the ratio is at a major extreme. And that means silver will likely outperform gold over time… whether that means it rises more or falls less.

With that in mind, let’s look at the price action in silver without worrying about gold…

The chart below shows silver along with its 200-day moving average (200-DMA) – its long-term trend. In it, you’ll see that silver put in a lot of “lower highs” from 2016 through today. And in 2017 and 2018, the metal barely traded above its 200-DMA. That’s not a great sign.

But for most of 2019, silver has traded above its 200-DMA. Its 200-DMA recently turned higher. And silver is now “testing” this important level…

This may turn out to be the moment of truth for silver. Its 200-DMA also happens to be at the psychologically important level of $15 per ounce.

If silver can hold its ground and turn higher here (or keep from falling much below $15), this could be the turning point at which silver begins to outperform gold.

If silver breaks down, and especially if its 200-DMA turns lower again, we’ll likely see the gold-to-silver ratio jump up to 100 or more in no time. It would be a bad sign not just for silver… but for gold, too.

For the precious metals space to be healthy, we should see both gold and silver rising.

If you’re looking to buy silver for the long term, our advice hasn’t changed in years. Silver is cheap… We suggest you buy or continue to buy.

If you’re looking to trade silver or silver stocks, though, you have two choices…

First, you could buy them today and use a super-tight stop loss. If silver breaks down, you’ll sell and lose a little. If it doesn’t, the upside is gigantic.

With the 200-DMA rising, this isn’t a bad bet. But it’s not a high-probability trade, either.

Your second option is to sit on your hands for a few more days or weeks. Because silver’s upside potential is so big, it’s alright if you don’t catch it at exactly the right moment.

The high-probability trade is to make sure silver can stand strong at today’s levels… then buy, if and when it does. Ideally, we would want to see silver make a higher high by breaking above its June 24 high of $15.44 per ounce.

We’ll likely go with option No. 2 and wait for the higher probability trade.

We’ll be sure to let you know when the setup is right and how to trade it. Stay tuned.”

As will I….

Harold