Tuesday, September 29, before the open. Judging by yesterday’s price action, and by the movement overnight, overseas… It’s looking like I may have called the bottom of this move. We’ll soon see, as it would have to confirm to the upside with some expanding volume to convince traders it’s for real, and to generate new enthusiasm for the rally.
I’d try to go through the charts again, but not sure if I’ll have the time… Maybe.
Harold
Monday, September 28, before the open. Hey, the OEXpert 7 says it’s right about time for the metals to turn up. And, as I type, the metals are off again overnight, overseas… which only means that risk is being further reduced… UNLESS price support has broken down, in which case they could fall much further away. But, what do we have? I haven’t looked yet….
NG has formed a bullish cup, with a very short handle, but is a thing of beauty to behold! PVG looks to be a worthy candidate. It has been consolidating very well. AEM may be said to be doing the same, but has some overhead resistance it would need to fight through. AAU must be seriously considered. It’s exhibiting really clear support that has held at its 20-day. KOR is eking out an incredible flat base upon base since mid-May. KGC, like AEM, looks healthy, with just a bit of overhead resistance to have to work through. KL looks to have some heart, that it could be a leader the next rally. OR gives me that same impression, too. NGD looks to be exhibiting some fine strength, it’s 50-day providing powerful support. Don’t overlook BTG! Price looks to have landed on strong support!!! Tiny XPL looks to show some incredibly promise in its chart… Must be considered very high risk, however, being it’s under $1. Something far more palatable might be ASM. It has found support and looks to be on a potential recovery track. There’s a dozen ideas above. Let’s see if there are any other irresistible beauties.
Yeh, WPM is quite nice. Oh, FSM certainly is, too! SA looks immanently tradable. MAG, too!
A chart of all 60 exchanged traded issues as its own one “index” shows that price has come down to a very clear support level, which I would hope and expect would hold, seeing how that my indicators within the timer are in place to signal a low-risk entry here. That support goes right back to all the first half of July.
Harold
Saturday, September 26. I was challenged by someone concerning metals and stocks. My response was, I’ll confer with my technical timing effort, which tends to be very accurate in a Bull Market scenario.
The price of GLD, when charted in the OEXpert 7 Market Timing Program is telling me this: That price has been these past 3 days under its 2 lower trading bands, which is one indication risk is low. The F1 indicator looks to be at 19, and under its own lower trading band, and that’s an indication risk is low. F2, which I probably should just ignore and never refer to, because it is always first, and always early, reads a -10 for a sure signal. BUT, F3 is also now giving us its signal, as it has gotten down to 10, where it says risk is low. F4 is at about a -7.5, and that’s a signal from that indicator. F5, being under 40, at 37 or 38 has given us its blessing. And, a favorite of mine is when F6 absolutely hits the floor at 0, where it is right now. The timer is telling me that gold is about to turn upward, and that I should expect it to do so at any time now!!!
I said I’d try to get to the individual mining stocks to see which might be most tradable… I can’t promise anything, as my Sunday is FULL. We’ll see……..
Harold
Friday, September 25, before the open. So, what are we looking at here? The price of GLD in the OEXpert 7 Timer is now a bit below both of its 2 lower trading bands. This says risk is now low. F1 is at 21, and its own lower trading band. It also says risk has gotten low, though I prefer to see F1 get down to 10. Fast and early F2 is at -10 and says risk is off. F3 is at 13, and with, oh, just one more day, could be at 10 and signal for us. F4 is at a -7 and that’s a signal that risk is low. F5 reads 38, which is under the 40 trigger, and so it is also saying risk is low. Finally, F6 is at 6, which is under the signaling place of 10, and so it comes in with a low-risk signal, too. With just one more day, it could hit the floor of 0, which is often a really good sign!
I’m going to go right on out there, to the end of that limb, and I’m going to say that we are close… I think that perhaps the end of this decline is near at hand. As I type, the metals have gotten clobbered again overnight, overseas, and the selling of late has gotten to be rather extreme and severe.
The time is soon coming… Today’s data, after the close, may well do it… and, if it does, I look for the reversal to the upside to commence next week, if it does not do so intraday today!
I should take the time this weekend to go through the mining issues… IF I ever get that time.
Harold
Wednesday, September 23, before the open. I’ve entered data and updated the timer. If it is not there yet, it’s probably getting pretty close.
Let me share the indicators with you. The price is now at that place of its 2 lower trading bands in the program, and would constitute a signal that risk is getting quite low. F1 is at its own lower trading band and measures about 22. The documentation says that is a signal, but I sure do much prefer when F1 gets down to 10 or lower. Call it a yes, along with price.
F2 is almost always first and early. Being at a reading of about -7… It’s there and signaling. Is it early? F3 is much slower, and often doesn’t get there before a reversal, but it is right now at 21, and signals at 10, so it’s not far from giving me a green light. Will it? F4 is between -4 and -5, and that constitutes a signal for us. F5 is at 39, just under its 40 signal, and so we put it in the low-risk entry column. And, finally, F6 is at 18, and its own lower trading band. As with F1, the documentation says this is a signal, but it is so much better when it gets down to 10 or lower.
If I go over to my default settings in stockcharts.com, RSI is not oversold. Stochastics have been oversold 3 times lately, and price has fallen lower since. More importantly, I look for a P3 Squeeze, which is what I set my indicators there up to show me… and, there is NO P3 Squeeze there. Even the Acc/Dist line is flat, showing neither accumulation or distribution of shares of GLD.
My take is that since the metals are folding again today, considerably lower, that we will get a very fine, full-blown, all-out signal here shortly. Let’s see what this day’s data will do with the indicators after today’s close.
Harold
Wednesday, September 9, after the close. So, I’ve entered in all the data since 7/28, and the chart pattern could not be more clear. Gold is establishing an incredible base, if it can hold. Support is there, and we are very near to it.
The line of support for GLD is at $179.14. It starts with the 8/11 candle, and exists all the 20 trading days since. We have support, and price is currently near it.
The pattern of ever lower highs since 8/6, with subsequent highs at 8/18 and 9/1 form a Bullish squeeze, which is now getting very tight, and may soon result in a breakout, one way or the other.
As I said, support is at $179.14, and now the upper resistance line is just above $185. Support is doubly strong now, as the 50-day moving average has just attained unto $179.42.
So, it’s a good time to watch and see what’s going to happen. The chart pattern would suggest a breakout to the upside.
Now, the TIMER. F1 is at 25 and under its signal line. Technically it has signaled, but I’d love for it to get to 10. F2 is now at -4 and has just signaled at -5 in the past day or so. F3 is at 29, and could signal within a week, maybe less. F4 is at -4, and has already signaled when it very recently made -10. F5 has just attained 40 only yesterday, for a signal. Finally, F6 is at 23.. has been to 19, and I’d like to see it get to 10, if it would. My take from the timer, is that it is saying that a little more downside or sideways stuff, and maybe gold could lift off again in a new rally, as risk in that market would appear to be getting all wrung out. What’s anyone else seeing and thinking???
I’ll try to pick the best mining stocks in a bit, if I am able.
Harold
Gold Stock Trader 