You Don’t Believe?

Wednesday evening, January 13, 9:35 pm EST. Wow! Today may have been far more significant than anybody is even thinking right now!

I’m ‘amazin‘ as I am looking at the charts. The metals, and miners had sold off some today… struck a point of near-term support, and lifted… many on volume, and many eking out a bullish hammer candlestick.

NUGT lifted off its 200-day avg. SGDM staying within the price range of start of this latest upmove on 1/12. SILJ finding serious support off its 50-day. SLV showing relative strength vs. gold… and on big volume! GLD seriously rebounding, on volume, and creating a tight, though brief, consolidation. GDX staying within that range first defined by the 1/12 pop, and recovering on good volume, if not great. RGLD defining a true uptrend since 1/9, and volume slowly expanding. CDE finds support on its 50-day. PAAS hanging in within the price range first being defined by the 1/12 lift-off. FSM finding support on its 200-day average. WPM is finding support right on its 50-day. ABX has begun to sit on, and climb its 50-day. SSRM is doing the same. HL shows weakness, but looks to be trying to catch a bid right here, along with all the others. AG had fallen all the way back to a very major support line, and rebounded off of it on very good volume. PVG, the weakest sister, after a poor report 7 trading days ago… has also fallen to, and is sitting right on a very major level of previous price support, too.

Something’s up! The charts are giving evidence of something big possibly setting up right in here about now. Average volume for all was up by 42%! And, the avg price chart for all… rebounded off support of its own 50-day average. Checking metals prices overseas, they’re off some, but certainly not so much as to undo what happened here today. We need to be paying very close attention. It could be winding up for a really good lift. We’ll certainly know soon enough. But, I, for one, believe… but, then, never forget, I’m ever the eternal optimist. I can’t help myself! What? You don’t believe?

Harold

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While You Were Sleeping

Wednesday, January 31, 10:34 am EST. This is one of those periods where prices bounce around, after whacking its head up against overhead resistance. It gets pushed back, and commences to regroup, so as to run against it again. I think that’s where things are at right now.

Reviewing all the charts, I see this very thing with nearly every one. They are almost all being contained by their own moving averages beneath them, with the overhead I identified above them. This is that period where they should be finding the energy to surge up through that resistance in the relatively near future.

The precious metals are commodities, and nearly all the commodities are advancing in price. The metals are going to follow suit, and go along with that entire commodity uptrend scenario. It’s still very early… we’re on board, and we should see some good gains, perhaps even in this year of 2018!

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3:05 pm EST update… Metals are making a move up today, that is looking rather powerful. That’s a good sign. Strength is bullish, and weakness below support is bearish… this is strength off of near-term support, and very bullish!

Harold

The Charts that Matter Most

Tuesday, January 30, 10:22 am EST update. Looking in on what is going on, I realize that of the 16 charts, prices and volume are tending to be all over the place. That would cause me to be confused, but there are certain charts that bear much more weight than others, among the 16 symbols I’m watching.

SGDM, Canadian, Eric Sprott’s gold mining fund, it bumped up against resistance, and is still contained within the up-move that commenced earlier this month, though volatile. This is still a bullish picture.

SILJ, bumped against resistance and got turned back. Being all about silver, and silver has not been doing as well as gold, it makes the ‘rally’ since 12/12 somewhat suspect, but it is still within its January low of 1/9, so we can still view it positively.

NUGT is looking for traction, so as to hold right in this place…. if it does, that would be positive.

Few know that GLD actually just barely broke out, but got thrown back, is still actually looking remarkably healthy, and is consolidating within a relatively well-contained and tight now 5-day pattern that is not at all far from this nearest top. If you can chart it, draw a line from the 3/17/14 top, to connect with the 7/6/16 top, and you can see this is that line of demarcation, where the battle is currently being waged against resistance, for the next level of what will likely become future support.

It is very much the very same picture with SLV. Connecting the 4/13/16 top with 9/7+8/17 top, we pretty much find ourselves having hit that resistance and gotten thrown back… but, again, we’re in a relatively tight 5-day consolidative battle around that point. It is still a bullish scenario.

GDX, too! It has not even broken down below where the 1/12 pop commenced from, meaning that its retreat is still bullishly contained so far!

RGLD, a royalty firm, is looking just fine!

WPM, representing silver, is staging a wonderful stand upon its bullish 50-day moving average line, and is also still contained within the pop of 1/12!

A key component to watch, is the big daddy of miners, ABX. See how it began to walk right upon its 50-day moving average as of late December. It’s been coming back and doing that ever since, and now, that 50-day average has turned upward… that, too, is bullish!

So, what’s NOT been doing well? Honestly, it’s been my own mining stock selections, lately. They’re dragging the 16 symbol average down, when I chart them all as one. The individual miners are generally not faring as well as the larger funds and the ETFs for the metals themselves. Not sure why that would be so, and I would view that as a negative, and bearish against future prospects, but I understand you have to weigh the metals, and ABX, and the large mining funds more heavily, than the small individual miners I’m also involved in and charting. They would be more volatile, and they have been somewhat scary of late.

The bigger picture, I’ve just described is not a bad one… yet, and it may right itself well, and attempt another run at the overhead resistance. But, what is NOT happening here yet, is a bad bearish throw down that is destroying the bullish case for the metals… at least not yet, and I can say that with certainty! So, a breakout watch is still in order, as we may still get a very pleasant surprise in this sector, before too terribly long.

Harold

Keep Your Eyes Open!

Tuesday, January 30, 9:33 am EST. The metals and stocks have begun to get more volatile right in here. Stocks are getting slammed, and that sends some money in the direction of metals, as uncertainty heats up. Beyond that, the sell-off in metals has already been almost all made up for with the move we’re seeing in the metals this morning. They’re not all that far from where they’ve just come from.

This means we must be on alert, and keep our eyes open. It’s possible that at any moment, for reasons we wouldn’t learn until later, the metals could break out and commence to run.

What might be a reason for that? I’ll give you one: Political turmoil is heating up in Washington over what may prove to have been a weaponized FBI under the Obama Administration. And, why not, the IRS and DOJ have been shown to have been. These kinds of political things can become a truly large scandal, and result in the increase of fear over uncertainty, something Wall Street absolutely hates! Should things be moving that way, precipitating this stock market decline, then money will naturally be flowing into the precious metals hedge.

Stay alert!

I’ll be going to charts shortly, maybe there will be something post-worthy.

Harold

Remain Alert!

Monday morning, January 29, 7:47 am EST. Our metals markets are about to open, but the overnight, overseas session was not kind. Gold is off .6%, and silver is down by .75%. If this should carry over to our markets when they open in little more than 10 minutes, or should get even worse, we can expect the miners to have a rough go of it today.

But, it’s perfectly in keeping with what we have observed up to this point… we have hit resistance, and we should expect push back when we are there. As long as it all remains well contained, and results in consolidation, or no worse than a correction, this will further continue to confirm that the metals are in a bull market, and that the overhead will eventually get cleared out, and the price will advance through it for more price upside.

When the overhead is cleared, there will be some clear sailing, and a good price rise will take place then. You’ll see!

Harold

Stickin’ to the Knitting

Saturday, January 27, Weekend wrapup. Time to examine the 16 charts, and the one chart created from an average of all the 16 symbols I track.

Thursday’s smack-down from resistance was on big volume… But, there was no similar follow-through on Friday. Friday was something of a recovery day on much lighter volume. Perfect! Just settle down, boy!

Better, the entire downside on Thursday was still contained within the up-move that commenced back on the 12th. There’s serious overhead resistance just above these price levels. I would expect it take some time to work up the energy to break through it. There’s no hurry. We should expect that each up-wave, such as from 12/12 to 12/26, and now from 1/9 to 1/16, will require some time to ‘digest.’ Note that the first leg took some 11 trading days, before it lifted again, and this most recent leg has only taken some 8 days to ‘digest,’ so far. Let’s give it awhile longer.

Now that it’s closer to this heavy resistance, it may take even longer. We’ll be patient. Remember, when this resistance is breached, it’s likely to really run! Believe it!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold

Recovering

Friday, January 26, 7:57 am EST. Metals are up overnight, overseas… and silver is leading that charge. It’s not on the order that it is going to immediately begin to threaten overhead resistance yet… but, we need to continue to watch, to see that this first throwback from resistance remains orderly, because if it does, it will likely make another advance against it in the near-future.

And, on one of those occasions, perhaps the next, or third, or fourth; it will breakthrough! It’s a bull market ya know.

Harold

 

Resistance Won! For Now….

Thursday, January 25, 7:00 pm EST. The metals and miners got smacked down today. It met with resistance, just as I had thought it was, and it got turned back… for now!

That’s not a bad thing. It’s both normal and healthy. And, the volume today, for my 16 symbols, was 92% greater than its 50-day avg of volume. That was a lot of volume!

So, we sit back, and we watch and wait again. Let’s see what it will take for it to reverse back up to the upside again, and how many more times, if any, it gets turned back again.

The bigger point and picture is simply this: Since the 12/12+13 bottom, this has been a very fine bull rally and run. It’s in need of taking some time to consolidate and digest that now. If it can do so in a healthy manner, it will be setting itself up for the very next leg upward.

I am in need of updating my timer, and to commence to track the decline, perhaps I’ll stay on top of my game and catch the next lo-risk market entry opportunity to enter a trading position… like I could have done in December, had I been disciplined, and not lazy. I could have easily made a few grand by now, but, alas, I fell asleep at the switch then… I’ve written all about that awhile ago. No cryin’ over spilt milk.

Let’s see what Friday morning will bring, right now, prices are holding pretty steady since our close. It’s not turning into any kind of a rout beyond our shores.

Harold

 

Which Way Did He Go?

Thursday, January 25, 6:52 am EST. Alright, I haven’t really looked into anything yet, so I am as curious as I can be. What REALLY happened yesterday, because, for sure, the metals were pushing hard against resistance, and I don’t think it made it through, but I’m about to take a look and see! I’m doubting it, before I look, because, when I updated my mining share prices in Excel last night, I did not see the rise in prices that I had expected I would see… so, just how did Wednesday actually go? Hmmmm?

First of all, tremendous VOLUME!!! The average volume of my 16 symbols I track increased by 81%! It’s the greatest volume spike since the kick-off day of 12/13, when this rally first commenced. Second, my take is that it got gob-smacked right at the overhead resistance, and is hanging there right now, to either break through, or reverse from. And third, Silver really took it to Gold and accelerated to the upside, beating gold Wednesday 2.99% to 1.22%. That’s better than a 2:1 ratio, and confirms my previous comment that silver would have to begin to play catch-up to legitimize this rally. Now the real fun begins!

This is a place of big-time overhead resistance. It can go up further, taking it out. It can get turned back, and reverse down to find support. Or, it can walk along, either over or under this line, until it resolves in one direction, or the other.

Sharp traders, who got in early, like I should have done, had I actually caught live the 12/12 bottom my indicators signaled, will take some profit here. Others, who are confident of the new trend, might take on a little here, and put a tight stop under it. Others, not believing, and hoping resistance holds might sell into this. Still others, are going to wait, to make a move, once a new move commences.

So, my guess is, this could move around a bit in here first, as I just looked in on the overnight, and the metals have hardly moved a bit the entire night. The battle at resistance would now seem to be on.

When watching it daily, and specializing in one cyclical industry group, as I have sought to do for nearly 2 years now, it seems to get easier and easier to “read,” and, hopefully, to profit from. One really true, and big, metals rally bull run can make a person quite a bit wealthier… that’s what I believe!

Harold

RESISTANCE!

Wednesday, January 24, 1:12 pm EST. Wow! The metals are pushing mightily against resistance right here today. Prices are up, volume is up… way up, but the breakthrough is not a fait accompli.  Hang in there. We’re going to learn just where this will go very soon. It will either be thrown back (temporarily), or it’s going to breakout and pop on volume, and commence a new run… I believe. Stay tuned!


1:17 pm update. Yup! sure looks like it’s beginning to run… just sayin’! Keep a close eye on this!

Harold