Further Apology….

Friday, December 29, 11:17 am EST. I put a NUGT trade on little more than an hour ago, and it’s doing just fine… just as I had hoped. Let’s see where it ultimately goes.

But, my reason for this posting this is straight-forward. You’ll recall a few posts back that I apologized for missing the clear call of my timer to say that gold was at a lo-risk market entry place back on 12/12… and it most certainly was, as the indicators within the program, but one, had all signaled, and the one lone holdout was very close.

Now, however, after having taken a trading position in NUGT at 10:07, I thought I’d look in on NUGT in my stockcharts.com default setting, and I could have just kicked myself again.

My default set-up has RSI above the price chart, and RSI was under 30 on 12/12 and signaling. Under the price chart, I have a slow stochastic. It was under 20 on 12/12 and signaling. Beneath the stochastic, I have PPO and ADX, from which I look for the squeeze pattern… and while it was not as clearly defined as I would generally like to see it, the PPO was declining while the ADX was rising, and was in the process of creating the tell-tale signal of the P3 Squeeze back on 12/12 that so often proves to be so faithfully profitable. Or, in other words, I had so many things telling me after the close on Tuesday, December 12 to be a buyer of NUGT shares, I blew the opportunity even worse than I had originally apologized to you all for!!! So, again, I’m incredibly sorry about that failure on my part. We could have bought in around $24.50 on Wednesday morning the 13th, and it is at $32.10 as I type… that’d be a 31% gain, folks!

O, well, I got in at 31.52, and have a near 2% gain for the first hour and a half into it… I’m really awaiting next week with this, to see if my ‘thesis’ about what mining share prices have been doing plays out as I have ‘guessed’. Hey, it could work!

Harold

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Check It Out!!!

Friday morning, December 29, 10:02 am EST. Just as I previously wrote, get this now… the metals are both up on the morning, and not by a little amount either. But, like, by better than 1/2 of 1%! Go see that, if you can.

But, this is also the case… I’m looking at how my miners are trading, and they are nearly all getting sold! This must be tax loss selling or harvesting going on, I would think… as they are nearly all down.

I’m going to do it! I’m going to take that chance. I’m going to take a speculative trading position in NUGT. Something is telling me, whether rightly or wrongly, that it should work out real well very, very soon. And, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong, and will pull the plug quickly, as any smart trader will tell you to do.

There! at 10:07, I dipped a toe. I bought at the market and got filled for $31.52. Let’s see what comes of it! Hey, it could work!

Harold

End of the Year Strategy?

Friday, December 29, 8:48 am EST. I am really intrigued. The metals had two good outings Wed and Thurs, but the miners did not. That’s not typical, at all!

So, I’m wondering… the metals are looking good again this morning. Will the miners have another less than stellar day today??? I have a family get-together at 2:00 EST, and it’s a 40 minute drive there. What if… say about 1:00 pm, or so, if I were to remember to look in, and I saw that the metals were doing well still, and the miners were not… that if I were to play my idea that it is tax-loss selling, or something of that nature, and bought in for a trade on NUGT, with the idea that it would pop very well next week, to start 2018?

I’d love to hear what any of you might have to say about that. If the metals have another, a third good day, without mining share participation, there would have to be some upside gain to be had going into the new year, wouldn’t you think?!?!?!

I’d look like a genius, if it were so. I’m game. If, after noon, and I remember to check in, and I find the very conditions existing as I have just described above, I’m going to venture a speculative trade on it. It just sounds too compelling for me not to… does anyone know of any reason why the idea doesn’t make sense, and would likely be a mistake? I’m listenin’!

Harold

 

Weirdness!

Thursday, December 28, 5:22 pm EST. I’m just going to come right out and say it: These past couple of trading days have just been downright weird! The metals, gold and silver, have each had 2 good outings Wednesday and Thursday, but the miners have not… not at all! They were all off Wednesday, and they were about half up and half down Thursday, as though the metals had not moved. Like I said, weird!

I don’t know what to make of it. Perhaps it is some end-of-the-year tax-loss selling? That’s the first thought that comes to mind. Volume was once again abysmal and pitiful, too. The volume for all 16 symbols was off an average of 23% from its own 50-day avg of volume.

Friday is the last trading day of the year 2017. If it should trade the same, with the metals doing fairly well, and the miners not… I’m going to guess it has to do with tax-loss-selling, and if that should be the case, then look out Tuesday the 2nd of January, 2018, because I would think a lot of catching up might happen then.

I’m already out on a limb as thinking and saying that I believe stocks are going to correct, going into the new year, as many traders and investors might want to take a profit, but defer the cap gains tax paying until April of ’19, after having had such a great 2017. Also, the precious metals miners have had just about the worst year, relatively speaking, in relation to nearly all other industry groups, and so, they may be getting sold for their cap loss harvesting, so as to be put against gains reaped throughout ’17… and, if that’s so, I’ll just go further out on that limb, and say that I think they’ll start ’18 well. That’s my position… for now… until the market proves me wrong again, and I have to eat still more crow! LOL

Harold

And, They Just Keep Rising!

Thursday, December 28, 9:17 am EST. It is happening. The quiet riot I wrote of is going on. Prices just keep gently rising, without attracting anyone’s attention, or so it would seem, because volume remains so light!

Now, for what it’s worth, the metals did little to nothing Wednesday, and the miners nearly all sold off just a bit, but this morning, the metals look to be catching a bid once again, and I would expect mining shares to open higher in just a few minutes.

I’ll report on my chart reading in just a few more minutes…

9:39 am EST. So, gold and silver rose some, but all the miners sold down a bit. That’s unusual. But, there is nothing in any chart that spells anything like trouble. Especially since the selling volume Wednesday was lower than any of the previous up-days’ volume. And, now, here after the open, nearly everything is up, as I expected they would be… though RGLD is off a good bit. I suspect they likely just paid out a large year-end dividend to shareholders?

Let’s see how things look at the end of trading today.

Harold

Quiet Riot?

Wednesday, December 27, 7:54 am EST. As every reader now knows, I totally missed my timer’s call, after data from Tuesday, December 12 was inputted, that it was calling for a lo-risk market entry at that very point in time, and was the correct call, to the day. I should have been keeping up, been on top of the situation, and telling you of it that very evening… but, I did not. I hadn’t inputted any data into the timer since Wednesday, November 22, 3 weeks before, simply because I had gotten lazy and careless.

Now, since Tuesday, December the 12th, the metals have been moving fairly well… nothing attention grabbing… But, the miners’ shares have been doing much better, and they are moving in anticipation of a greater metal’s move, obviously, or they wouldn’t be lifting as well as they have been, from that very same date. However, it MUST be pointed out again, as I have so many times before… there is a degree of caution that must be exercised, even here, as the volume is just not coming in to help serve to confirm the ‘reality’ of this rally. Until it does, we must put ‘rally’ within some kind of quotation marks, as it will remain suspect until it does genuinely confirm… and, it has not as of yet! Tuesday’s volume was 13% below its own 50-day average… granted, it’s a short trading week, between 2 major holidays, but it is not rising in such a way as to confirm the ‘rally’.

One thing I find to be totally helpful here is that every line of price resistance I had recently noted concerning gold, as represented by GLD, has now been breached! Or, in other words, that would provide a relatively strong argument in the support of my recommendation last post that one could put on a trading position.

My long-term metals investments have all been participating in what has taken place since Tuesday the 12th, but I never put a trade on from what has proven to have been an excellent lo-risk entry signal from that date. The ‘rally’ has yet to confirm, and the window in which it really should have, is rapidly closing. It is now becoming increasingly likely that we will have to wait until after the first of the new year, to see if a new uptrend is truly in the works, as that is when everyone will be getting back to work.

Harold

Insult to Injury?

Tuesday, December 26, 8:16 am EST. Well, not only did I totally let you and myself down by not catching the call from Tuesday evening the 12th, but we would have been in place for what looks to happen this morning. The metals have had a decent lift overnight overseas, and have added a bit more here since our metals market opened at 8:00 am EST. This will likely result in a bit of a pop in mining share prices, when they open at 9:30.

We have an opportunity here. It’s still plenty early enough. It just grieves me that I didn’t keep up with data input into the timer, and make the call it was giving me nearly two weeks ago. We’d all be the happier for it, that’s for certain. It’s still totally possible, and even appropriate to take a trading position here, as this market has not, by any measure, caught fire yet. And, maybe it won’t, but it’s commenced a pretty decent run, and next to nobody is in on it yet, as the volume attests to… or, rather I should say, the lack of volume! There has not been a confirmation day yet, and the time really is running out for there to be one.

A confirmation day would look something like the 13th, with a decent lift in price on expanding volume. We have not seen that since Wednesday the 13th. But, prices have been continuing to rise rather decently, without the volume there to indicate that any excitement is behind the action. Such moves typically cannot be trusted, as they tend to fall back of their own weight, because there is not any rush of others behind the earliest to enter, so as to continue the rally. Today might surprise, which would signal to a great many more to get on board… we could have (should have?) back when I would have gotten the last signal. O, well………. further opportunity may still afford itself, and in any case, this is a very early point in time, if this particular one is going to be real!

Harold

I Am SO Sorry!

Saturday, December 23. It has been an entire month since I had updated the ancient 1992 OEXpert 7 Market Timing Program. I just updated all the missing data, and… I missed a GREAT lo-risk market entry signal! Yup, I did….

I am so sorry. On Tuesday, December 12, the timer marked an excellent trading bottom on GLD, the data I use to time gold. Let me tell it:

1.) The price of GLD had traded down to its own lower trading band at 118 and signaled.

2.) F1 got down to 6, below 10 and its lower trading band. It had signaled.

3.) F2 had declined to -5 and signaled.

4.) F3 closed at 3, well under 10, and had signaled.

5.) F4 closed at about -3.5, which was not quite a signal, but very close to it.

6.) F5 had gotten down under 40, to 38 and signaled, and…

7.) F6 hit the floor, right at 0, under 10 and its lower trading band, and that was a signal!

I missed it, and I blew it! I am sorry, and I apologize to you all, my readers. Had I been on my game, and called it that evening, we could have gotten into NUGT the morning of Wednesday the 13th for as little as about $24.50, or so. NUGT closed this past Friday, a week and a half later, at $30.39, for a lost opportunity of maybe $5.89 a share, or a gain of maybe as much as 24%! It just makes me sick! I can’t believe I did that!!! The OEXpert was right on top of it, but I was not right on top of inputting the data into the Xpert! Mea Culpa… My bad. I totally blew it! Please forgive me.

I guess the best I could say is, you really got what you paid for, didn’t ya? DOH!!!

Harold “egg-on-face” Crowell

On the Eve of Christmas Eve

Saturday, December 23. Day 7 since the metals and miners popped Wednesday the 13th. So, what do we have to show for it? Well, for one, a person in the precious metals industry told me that this December bottoming thing is actually quite cyclical and predictable. Then, I read the very same thing as a statement from some analyst… but, I can’t remember who. So, the only thing that makes sense is to chart something like HUI and/or GDX and over a long period of time, and see if that is so.

Okay, so this is easy… there is a December low in the more recent years of ’13, ’14, ’15 and ’16, but I don’t see any such regular pattern before ’13. So, will the same repeat here, beginning in December of ’17. It’s beginning to look that way!

Let’s look at gold… the price of GLD is right at that place of resistance being offered by its own 50 and 200-day moving averages, and it also has a Bullish Wedge line of overhead to breach just a little bit above the 50-day it is challenging right now. This is that place where it might get stopped. Or, it may well be that place from which it is about to launch, should it pierce all 3 of these resistance points that are converging on GLD right about here. Which will it be?

My guess, totally for what it’s worth, is that I am of a belief that the stock market is going to commence a correction after the new year starts… That’s totally conjecture on my part… but, I also believe that if this Bullish Wedge pattern is faithful, then the metals and miners will breakout and run. It would make sense if that were to also commence in the new year. I’ll state opinions like this, but I never put on a trade in anticipation of such a thing. I’ll just watch for it. I believe we have a little while to watch for a new rally to commence. It’s looking, to me, that it’s wanting to.

I’ll close with this thought: In the chart of all 16 symbols I track averaged, the price has already pierced its downtrending resistance line connecting the Bullish Wedge tops of 9/7, 10/13 and 11/17. Price has also already broken through its downtrending 50-day average. Price is now up against its own 200-day avg, which has turned it back twice recently, on 11/8 and the same 11/27 top previously mentioned. Just a little more push, through the nearby overhead resistance tops I note, and an all-clear signal could be given… the confirmation of which will be, as I have mentioned, some kind of trader involvement, where volume starts to really pick up with the rally. If we see that, it will be time to add trading positions.

Merry Christmas to you all, and may God bless us all every one!

Harold

 

Day 5 Any Better?

Thursday, December 21, 7:41 am EST. We’re on a Rally Watch. Wednesday of last week gave us reason to have hope that maybe an actual metals and miners rally might be in the works. We’re looking for a confirmation day, which best happens some 4 to 7 business days after, with a similar 1+% pop on big volume, like the first day was. So, was yesterday, Day 5 any help or hindrance to that end?

I’ve got to tell you… the metals are doing only little better than holding their own, whether gold or silver, but the miners are a whole ‘nother matter altogether. They are truly moving out! The effort is on for the avg price of all those I track to clear the 3 levels of overhead resistance I recently wrote of.  At least 1 has been hurdled, and a second, the 50-day mov avg is where price is at right now.

However, metals prices are off a bit this morning, so it’s awfully hard to say anything is here yet. And, this is especially true since there’s no volume behind the action. Yesterday’s was only average at best.

Today is Day 6, and the week is not yet over. The Christmas holiday is upon us. Many will not be at work Friday, and the markets will be closed Monday. We’ll extend our Rally Watch beyond the usual 7 trading days to accommodate the holiday. It’s looking somewhat promising. Your gift shopping done yet?

Harold