2018 is Over!

Monday, December 31, 9:00 pm EST. I want to run through all the charts, and see just what happened today…

NUGT is first up, and closed at its high. Volume was… perfectly average! It’s not yet close to tackling overhead resistance. WPM formed a lovely bullish Hammer candlestick, But is still hanging close to its 200-day as support. SSRM may be making a run at its recent previous high… a break above that would be a real plus. RGLD closed at its high, made a bullish candlestick of its own, and attained a price it’s not seen since last July. PVG advanced well on its most recent high, and may attempt a break. ABX again found its 50-day to be as irresistible support, and again advanced up to its most recent support, that had turned near-resistance again. SGDM still fighting with resistance, and is not free of it yet. I’ve mentioned that GDX has made its 200-day support, and it is still riding right on it! PAAS is doing a somewhat similar thing with its 50-day.

Silver, as SLV, closed above its 200-day for the first time since June 15. Four straight days of rapid rise and big volume. It may need a breather, but it sure is looking like it’s wanting to lead a charge! Gold, as GLD, is also moving right on out rather attractively, and really has been since 11/28. It’s not attracting much attention, however, as volume is really UNimpressive. This is amounting to something of a stealth “rally” so far.

As stated earlier, FSM is now walking its 50-day as support, and that’s a positive. SILJ was rejected again by its own 50-day. It’s being powerful resistance, holding it back. CDE has fallen back under its 50-day, and as before, it will have to turn truly positive and join the march, if it’s at all real. And, poor HL, it can’t catch a break!

The last 3… SILJ, CDE and HL… these are going to be key to my getting a sure signal. When the real deal comes, it is as the old saying goes… “A rising tide lifts all boats”. I don’t see the volume yet, and I don’t see these issues overcoming their resistance, breaking out, and commencing to take off. This just isn’t that time yet. Will Wednesday?

Putting all 16 symbols together… the very same thing as before. There’s a very close support, and very near resistance, and price has been bouncing between the 2 for 5 straight trading days, on little more than average volume.

An ‘index’ of all exchanged listed mining issues, shows it bumping its head up against its own 200-day average for 9 trading days in a row, on unspectacular volume.

Is this dog going to hunt? The metals, themselves, seem to be wanting to say yes, but it’s not in miners! Not yet….

Harold

With One Hour to Go…

Monday, December 31, 12:04 pm EST. Looking in on metals and miners, and with a stock market that will be closing in little less than an hour… I’m trying to determine whether a buy call should be issued.

The metals are up… but not by any great amount. The symbols are making a good showing, especially SLV! But, there’s no extraordinary volume behind anything… the shortened trading day; the closed market tomorrow, has traders out, and away. They’re gone.

I could try to get cute, but it’s not my style. You all can try putting any trade in place that you might care to dare.

I’m going to wait until I see the whites of their eyes. A breakout,  lifting off, some impressive volume… a confirmation rally commencing before my eyes. It wouldn’t take much more than what it is presently doing… and Wednesday, the 2nd, being the first trading day of the new year just might be that very day. I don’t see it in today’s price or volume action.

Happy New year to you all… may 2019 be our very best yet. And, might it even commence to become so as early as the very first trading day! It could happen!!!

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I wrongly thought that the markets were closing again early today at 1:00. When they didn’t, I called eOption to ask, and the fellow answering told me it was normal hours today, and closed at 4:00… He then confessed that he’d thought they were closing early today, too! I wish they’d be consistent! Hahaha

Harold

Watching and Waiting with Anticipation

Monday morning, December 31, 8:37 am EST. I checked in earlier, and gold was down before our 8:00 a.m. metals market open. However, gold and silver are up now, as I write. Not by any dramatic amount, but up nonetheless. The push against resistance would seem to be on.

It will breakout, and it will commence to rally, and attract all new trader attention again… IF it confirms on volume. I’m thinking that it will, but until I see confirmation, I’m not committing. And, that’s only because I don’t feel any compunction to try to anticipate the signal. Others might like to do that… but, I don’t.

If you want to, please feel free to do so… only keep a tight-rein on your position, and stop your loss, if it should reverse and go against you. But, for right now, I am watching and I am waiting and I do have a hopeful anticipation that this time it is going to work out well!

Happy New and Prosperous Year to you all!

Harold

Weekend Repose

Friday evening, December 28. I’m taking a leisurely look tonite. After my previous post, I went to look into something… The analytical software I’ve been using all these years renders its own Buy, Sell and Hold recommendations, but I’ve never much paid attention to them (perhaps I should?) Anyway, after that trader I quoted mentioned he was a buyer this very week… Low and behold, this program ALSO issued its own Buy recommendation on both GLD and SLV just this very week! Well, whatta ya know about that?

So, what about my own analysis? What are the charts saying as of Friday the 28th’s close?

WPM’s wrestling with its 200-day still. NUGT slipped back from its recent attempt on its own nearest overhead resistance. RGLD once again slipped right back to its 200-day line and found support again! SSRM is hanging up above its 50 and 200-day like I said last time… just awaiting the order to move out. SGDM once again banged against its overhead, and once again failed, but did not fall away. AG got nicked up just a little bit.

Silver as SLV made another nice move today, and is now truly about to knock on the door of its 200-day overhead resistance line. Volume has been big all of the past 3 days that it has moved powerfully. There is a lot of resistance right at that 200-day, which is right about $14.50. Draw a line across that, and there will be a lot of shares bought between 7/18 and 8/10 that folks will want to unload… feeling relieved they got out, breaking even. They’re going to regret that, I’m betting!

GDX, like WPM earlier, wrestling with its 200-day. It’s proving resistance at this time. But, our sign will be when it can pull away; breaking through on volume. ABX has been struggling with that resistance line I had drawn, and one more time, it got pushed back to its very near support at its 50-day line, which has been holding well since 12/19 and its first test. PAAS is going sideways, but with its 50-day now under-girding it. PVG is more like SSRM above, hanging over both its 50 and 200-lines, as if awaiting the order to move out.

GLD closed at another 6-month high, and has been up-trending beautifully since 11/13. And, as I said earlier, both SLV and GLD have now, just in this week, received Buy ratings from this program, at the same time the trader I quoted in my previous post, was saying that he became a buyer in this week. I find these signals to be very encouraging!

SILJ is another story, however. It is being contained by its 50-day as strong overhead. It will breakout, when these all commence to move, and that will be one of our signals. FSM is now using its 50-day as support, rather than overhead; making that transition this week. CDE and HL are the two “weakest sisters,” and they are NOT pretty. I have suggested and stand by it, that even these 2 will also, suddenly, give a bullish appearance, when the real move commences, and I will watch for them to give the sign.

Next, a look at all 16 as one… Caught right between nearest-term support, and just under its nearest-term overhead, it’s own 200-day line. We’ve a clear signal setting up. Next, a look at ALL exchange listed miners as one, as if a true index… The very same kind of a picture, in that it is just under, and fighting powerfully up against its own 200-day line as stiff resistance.

In my final analysis… I’d say we are right now, still at that very point of inflection I wrote of Thursday. It may just be waiting for the new trading year to start, but it is saying… The horses are now in their gates, and awaiting the bell. That would seem to me to be the picture that the charts are setting up to me. The trader I quoted bought this week. The program has issued its own BUY recommendation on each of the metals. Now, with bullish confirmation from SILJ, CDE and HL, as well as the ‘indexes’ I’ve created of my 16 symbols and all listed companies… A breakthrough the very overhead resistance these are now beating against will be the very confirmation signal, along with expanding volume, that the gates are opening and the horses are about to run. Are you ready to place your bets before the window closes?

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold

Whoa! Getta Loada This!!!

Friday, December 28, 7:10 pm EST. Found this in my inbox. I thought it fascinating. You gotta read this!

“Gold, plain and simple, is financial-catastrophe insurance.

The thing is, we haven’t had a financial catastrophe in a decade.

So gold is cheap today.

I wrote about this back in 2002, the last time gold was dirt-cheap. I said:

…For the masses to pile into gold, they need to believe that we are at war. They need to believe that our nation is at risk. They need to believe that the dollar is going to fall and that inflation is going to appear. And most important, they need to believe that the men at the controls are no longer…

Gold was trading at $320 an ounce when I wrote that. Over the next decade, it soared to $1,900 an ounce.

But times have changed…

We haven’t had a financial catastrophe in a decade. We don’t have inflation or a major war.

So we’re back to the 2001 mentality about gold. Nobody cares about it.

Meanwhile, if Jim Rogers is right and we do careen toward financial catastrophe after the Melt Up, then gold should absolutely soar.

Investors hate gold today, for good reason – they’ve lost a lot of money in it over seven years…

• Gold is at about $1,200 as I write – down roughly $700 from its 2011 peak.

• Junior gold mining stocks have fared even worse. GDXJ – the main junior gold-stock exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) – is down about 80% today from its 2011 peak.

The last time gold was this hated – in late 2001 – the major gold-stock index (the HUI Gold BUGS Index) soared by nearly 300% in a little more than two years.

While I can’t promise you 300% gains in two years today, I can tell you that the setup today in gold is the same as what we saw back in late 2001.

The outcome could be similar, too. Gold and gold stocks could make investors a few times their money.

This week, for the first time in years – and for only the second time in my long career – I’m personally buying gold stocks again. And I’m also doubling the amount of the physical gold I own.  (emphasis mine!)

In short, I am putting my money where my mouth is. Why?

The reason is simple…

This Is the Best Moment to Buy Gold Since 2001

If you’re a longtime reader, then you know what I look for in a great trade…

I want to buy what’s cheap, hated, and in the start of an uptrend.

This strategy works in just about every type of asset… The most important question to answer is, “How do you define these terms for different assets?”

For example, how do you know that gold is hated?

Some folks like to use surveys of investors…

And that works. For example, in the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey, gold sentiment hit a 17-year low among investors surveyed.

But I prefer to look at “real money” on the line…

The best way to see that in gold is to look at what large speculators in the futures markets are doing with their money. For that, we look at the Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report.

It shows the real-money bets of futures traders.

Importantly, when these speculators are crowded at one side of a trade, the opposite tends to happen.

Currently, large speculators in gold futures have bigger bets against the gold price (relative to all futures bets on gold) than at any time since 2001.

Take a look…

This is EXACTLY what I want to see.

As the chart shows, gold speculators are betting against gold to a greater degree than at any time since 2001.

As you know, gold’s great bull market started in 2001, from a similar degree of “hated.” And as you know, gold stocks soared starting around that time.

I realize nobody is talking about gold or gold stocks today. But that’s what you want…

In order to buy an asset at the best price, you want to buy it when it’s hated and ignored. And you want to sell it when it’s all over the news.

I expect today’s extreme means that we are close to the start of the next great bull market in gold.”

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Don’t you just love it! Here’s an experienced and highly respected trader saying the very same kind of thing I’ve been saying… I have thought that I have been seeing the very beginning of what could be the next big wave in precious metals… And, this guy has just come out today, and said the very same thing. Note he said he’s buying NOW. I’ve not said that, but I have been so tempted to. You can, if you feel so inclined. I’m waiting for the actual confirmation trigger. I haven’t checked to see what today looked like, but I strongly suspect that today was NOT that day. I’ll check all the charts, and get back later, but here’s a big vote YES which is worth heeding. If he is, I would say you can, too… I personally need to give it just a little more room and time yet before I say BUY!

Harold

Inflection Point?

Friday, December 28, 3:45 am EST. A day with my attorney yesterday… Whohoo! Fortunately, metals and miners didn’t take off the very day I couldn’t be around to track them. BUT, might today be that day???

Overnight price activity in the metals is intriguing… I know it’s rising, and I know all kinds of overhead resistance should either be being challenged RIGHT NOW, or was broken yesterday? To get the correct picture, it’s necessary to go straight to the charts…

We begin with NUGT, because it has been showing the most Relative Strength in the short term. The fact that it comes to the top of my sort is bullish all in itself. I know that whenever I sort by this means, and NUGT is at the bottom of my list, gold is doing poorly. I’ve noted the metal’s strength of late, and the fact that NUGT has now risen to the top confirms my observation. But, what is the takeaway? NUGT is STILL within its own sideways consolidating pattern from off its mid-November low. It is not yet at its point of overhead resistance, but a day like today might take it back up to there!

WPM is wrestling mightily with its own 200-day, trying to breakthrough and clear it… not yet though. Love watching AG; it’s been trending well since 11/30, and is approaching its 200-day, from which it was previously turned back in October. ABX is also engaged in a struggle to breakout from its overhead resistance! RGLD has made its 200-day new suppport… potentially a very bullish development. SSRM has pulled away, and is now in a wait-and-see mode above its recent support… just awaiting the catalyst. Ooooo, GDX is also now establishing its 200-day as a new support level… again, this is bullish! PVG consolidating above its 50 and 200-day lines… also positive! SGDM, like a couple of others I’ve mentioned… struggling hard up against resistance at its 200-day line area. Watch for this to breakthrough! PAAS looks to be making its 50-day a new support level.

Remember how that only a couple or three days ago, I said that Silver was not in the game? How that it was still just doing this long-term, sideways, consolidation thing around its low? Well, Wednesday, on BIG volume… It broke through that resistance line, and closed right ON it. Then, Thursday, it took a mighty leap at its overhead 200-day, which should be some formidable resistance… so, NOW that silver has begun to move, and to catch up to gold’s advancing price action, we are getting a confirmation of gold’s move, as BOTH must advance together, to be genuine. AND, silver must get to where it is advancing at a FASTER rate than gold… which, by the way, with Thursday’s silver move, it just pulled ahead of gold in the measure of short-term relative strength. One more in the PLUS column for the metals!

Gold is now free of both its 50-day, and its 200-day! It closed at a new 6-month high, and volume is truly starting to pick up… again, all very bullish signs!!! And, since the miners advance quicker than the metals… the metals have been sliding down my list, as the relative strength of more and more of the miners exceeds that of GLD and SLV.

Even CDE is getting into the act… Price is now using its 50-day as support. The very same thing is now true of FSM. SILJ is STILL mired in its consolidation, and still trapped under its 50-day as overhead… as is HL, and I am going to go out on this limb and say… when these 2, SILJ and HL actually also show some positive bullishness about them… added to, and on top of all I have just seen and noted. We’re almost certainly going to be right on the cusp of a true rally confirmation scenario, and which we ought to be able to say… Climb aboard, this train may be about to pull out of the station! Now, wouldn’t that be something? It’s certainly been long enough in waiting, hasn’t it?

Oh, let me add right here… A chart of all 16, as one ‘index,’ if you will, is a most promising chart picture! Overhead resistance has been broken in recent days, and become new support… while at the very same time, its own 200-day has just also become its newest, latest resistance, and it is now knocking hard on it with considerable volume. Today could be a very interesting day… we are coming to a true inflection point!

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4:34 am update… I have 58 miners in my database that are listed on the Amex, NYSE or OTC, and I made them as all one index of their own. Charting them as 1, is VERY telling! Just Thursday, after knocking on its 200-day overhead line of resistance, it CLOSED for the first time above its 200-day, since it fell down through its 200-day line back on 2/2 of this year, when it was considerably higher. What’s important to note is the following: We have 2 head-and-shoulder bottoms. The first formed with left should on 8/16, head on 9/11, and right shoulder on 9/27 and 10/10. On mighty volume it broke above its 50-day on 10/11. I remember noting that bullish move back then. Another, higher, head-and-shoulders bottom then formed, with left shoulder on 10/31… head on 11/13 and 14, and right shoulder on 11/27 and 28. An upturned 50-day then became support, and has been so, since 12/4. That support was tested and held on 12/6, and very importantly, in a big way, on 12/19! With its first close above it 200-day line yesterday… we are again, by this scenario I have just described, put us on the cusp of a possible rally launch… or, as I stated above, a true inflection point. The unmistakable signs are everywhere. I’m not making it up, or imagining it. This must bear close watching, as we may be on the verge of that very opportunity I keep talking about… a precious metals rally that can generate massive returns for those who recognize it, and get in during the early stages… of which we may be looking right into the very earliest stage of?

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6:09 am update: Metals are moving overnight, overseas! Gold’s up a good bit, and silver’s doing the same… watch for it. Watch for it! This might be that day… also, it’s tough to throw this out there, BUT it is the last full trading day of the year, and this could just be as a result of what is called re-balancing, where monies are moved to settle up asset allocations between the metals, and other asset classes. Since they’d been down nearly all the year, it could be money flowing in at this time to square-up position-sizing in the course of normal re-balancing. We’ll know. We’ll see it in time, if nothing actually comes of it, and no new bull rally actually launches. Remember, we’re always on the alert for a true breakout, on volume, that shows the confirmation of follow-through. Without that, it cannot be trusted as being a real rally. It has not given us any such sign as of yet.

Harold

 

 

Or, Game Off?

Thursday, December 27, 8:39 am EST. I need to be brief, as I need to be off for much of the day. So, here it is. Wednesday was not the day of lift-off, as I’m sure you already know. But, no technical damage was done to the slowly evolving up-trend either.

That’s already past history… It’s what the metals have been doing overnight, and now, here in the States, since our metals market opened that matters now.

God and silver are looking pretty strong this morning… and, once again, we’re looking for a clear breakout above current overhead resistance levels, and on expanding volume. Today could be just such a day as that… When I return home, I’ll look into that, and see if we’re getting our Go signal, or not.

The real watchword is becoming volatility, however, and that makes it devilish hard to trade… Money’s flying back and forth between risk-on and risk-off assets at crazy rates, and we’re not expected to keep up. That’s why, not until clear trends emerge, can you play ’em.

Harold

Game On?!?!?

Wednesday, December 26, 10:17 am EST. Metals appear to be on the move. I’ll check in again later, and commence to do some intraday charting. If it appears that a lot of symbols are breaking out, and there’s attendant volume behind this move… then, we’ll need to make a call, and decide as to whether we want to get involved… or not. Breakouts on volume are the very signals we are looking for. It would appear to have been rather slowly setting up for… well, since some time back in mid-August.

I have to tell you though… right now, the miners are being SOLD into this ‘rally’… Which I find to be SO weird. Here’s why! Gold is making all new 6 month highs, and silver has just broken out of its sideways consolidation. Better… both metals are trading at their day’s high.

But, the miners popped, got sold, and are closer to their day’s LOWS, with some even in the red… being down from their previous day’s close! What is with that? I can make no sense of it at this time, but I’ll check in again later.

In the meantime… the metals are on the move, and making great progress today… while their miners are NOT! Go figure!

Harold

Is Something Shaping Up?

Tuesday, December 25, 7:54 pm EST. It has been a wonderful Christmas! My stocks have been clobbered, like everyone’s have, but between our cash… and our metals related holdings, we’re holding up just fine! I’ve read that the S&P 500 is now officially in a bear market… that’s supposed to mean that it has declined by 20% or more. I can check on that later, but I don’t care… thanks to cash and metals, we’re only off 11.55%. I can certainly handle that.

What is of keen interest now, at this point, is… what’s going on with gold, silver and their miners? So, it’s time to examine the charts again, and see what they might be saying.

First up is SSRM with a new 6-month closing high, and looking good! NUGT is still range bound, but maybe it’s about to challenge its overhead soon? WPM is wrestling with its own 200-day, and is struggling to overcome it, and move higher. ABX is doing a similar sort of thing, where it’s struggling with a resistance line, but also finding goodly support right at its own 50-day. It’s going to resolve, one way or the other, and we will catch that, when it unfolds. RGLD has begun a march. It started on 11/28, and the move has been really good, as it has just cleared its 200-day. GDX proffers a very similar picture… its 200-day has been broached, and is being tried to see if it will now serve as new support. PVG is above both its 50 and 200-day lines, and they have both turned upward. SGDM closed above a rather formidable resistance line that went back to the tops of 10/15 thru 23, and is now about to challenge its own 200-day line. AG and PAAS have broken above their 50-day lines.

Gold is looking really good! Its 50-day has turned up. Price has cleared its own 200-day, and the 50-day will be coming up against the 200-day before long, if current trend prevails. Silver, on the other hand, is showing no such trend to us. It has been range-bound within a sideways consolidation for more than 4 months. I’m sure a great many traders are keeping an eye on this one. It’s become so clear and pronounced… when it’s broken, I’d expect some real move will come of it. CDE is trying to show a sign of life… it’s cleared its 50-day line. FSM has just done the same. SILJ is not showing any kind of a hope.. much like silver itself isn’t. Finally, HL is very much struggling. It cannot seem to get out of its own way. When a real launch is detected, it will participate, along with the others.

Putting them altogether as one, shows a real clear picture that all recent near-term resistance appears to have been broken, and the next big challenge will be to break through its own down-trending 200-day moving average line. I do believe that it might do something like that very soon, and that when it does, we may see all the evidence we might need to say that a true rally may indeed be getting underway, and that it would behoove us to climb aboard and to go for a profitable ride. Merry Christmas to you all!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth,
Harold F Crowell

So, Will It Launch?

Friday, December 21, 6:22 pm EST. Are we really going to get a launch? Will we rally and make some money??? Let’s see if the charts give a clue…

Hmmm, first, SSRM opened way up, dropped a good ways down, then closed at about the placed it closed Thursday! All on huge volume, meaning… mayhem and confusion! Will the others have done any better? RGLD, similar… lots of volume and quite a price swing. It’s dealing with its 200-day as overhead resistance. WPM is still contending with its 200-day as overhead, too. PVG, like SSRM, was all over, but closed just about where it opened, and on a lot of volume! SGDM is wrestling with its overhead resistance line. GDX struggling mightily against its 200-day overhead resistance.

Now, GLD, representing gold, fell back a bit, but only to sit right on its 200-day, which has come to serve as support, and not resistance… especially, if it should continue to hold as such, which would be extremely meaningful! ABX had failed the support I’d drawn, and had held for 8 days before, and has fallen back to its own 50-day, which I would dearly love to see hold! Volume has been greatly increasing, so it’s been getting a lot more attention since last Friday, 12/14.

Now, SLV, representing silver… it’s not showing anything to get excited about, at all… unlike so many of its miners. What’s with this metal? It is still well within a totally sideways consolidation pattern that commenced back with 8/15, and has done little within that pattern since. BUT, when it breaks out, I’m suspecting that might be the best signal I could hope for… especially, if it should do so on convincing volume, and even better, if I should actually be able to catch it intraday, while it is happening, and get to make the call to climb aboard! Let’s see if it should work out that way anytime soon. When SLV should crack $14… be on the alert to act!!!

AG reflects the others that took wide swings today, but closed virtually unchanged, and on giant volume. PAAS may be giving up on its 50-day. CDE is still doing battle with its 50-day as overhead… on massive volume! SILJ looks like SLV… nothing really going on there. FSM is also trying to crack its 50-day, and stay above it, and fell just short, again on giant volume. HL… monster volume, little price move.

So, what’s going on? I’m thinking the big volume may well be tax-loss selling? This is that time of year for that to commence. Others, possibly aware of that, are taking positions in these ’18 losers, believing, as I do, that they are much closer to a low or bottom, than anything like a top. Makes sense to me, anyway. Average volume was up 44% today!

Putting all 16 symbols together as one, it’s a similar picture as some I’ve described… volume was big, while price struggled mightily against overhead resistance, but was not able to overcome, and got turned back a bit. Makes me suspect we’ll see some more tax-loss selling, if that’s what’s going on… and, then perhaps after the first of the new year, maybe then, a rally might want to kick-off? I’m sure I don’t know. I just try to watch each day, and read what the present daily chart action may be saying.

The bias has been up since 9/11 in silver and the stock symbols… since 8/15 in gold. We must respect that bias… it is a bullish one, and the vast majority of others are unaware of it, and in a state of shock over stocks. My own are off like the market is, by about 15% since last September, but the recent gains in metals and miners, has mitigated my total portfolio decline to 11.4%, which hurts, but not so much as a stocks only investor.

Harold