Interesting Bit of News

Thursday, August 31, 6:18 pm EST. It was an interesting bit of news, but it’s just the kind of thing we would want to see… The Treasury secretary said, get this now, a weaker dollar is better. That’s all he’s got to say, and the dollar commences a new slide, and gives metals what they need to go up. That’s the kind of fundamental news that gives the precious metals a real reason to rise for a long time. So, is it now tradable? I need to see price and volume charts.

The price and volume charts… remarkably, don’t look all that good. We’ve not broken beyond the price high of just 2 days ago, and volume is trailing off like you wouldn’t believe! It was almost 10% higher than its own 50-day moving average, but the 2 and 3 days previous, the volume was 36 and 65% higher! Today’s 10% higher is underwhelming. The conviction of big-money traders is not here. I’m pleased that we’ve done so well since I called a lo-risk entry about mid-July, and since the more recent August 8 bottom, the month was a good one… but, traders were away, and the volume was terrible, and I have no problem watching and waiting longer, for a whole new lo-risk entry signal, because that’s always the best time to get in… or, when it just starts taking off, breaking out, and volume is seriously swelling; which this has not been doing!

Harold

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As I Feared…

Tuesday, August 29, 5:57 pm EST. Well, as I had feared, prices were higher early on, and then petered out, and slowly drew back throughout the day. You can’t go long and trade that. It would have been a loser, for sure.

Going to the program, half our issues were up and the other half were down. Volume was 36% above the 50-day average. Appearances, when looking at the average of all 16 symbols as one, is a bullish one, but it would be best to just sit back and watch for a bit, as the event that kicked this off could be potentially so volatile, it’s hard to pull the trigger and get involved. Much of the higher volume was no doubt from those who jumped in early, saw that it wasn’t continuing to advance, and have already gotten out, with whatever profit, or small loss, they incurred.

I don’t get a good feeling about this, and I’m not going to go in until I do. What are you going to do? When a real good rally starts, we should be able to recognize it for what it is… Is this it? I’m not of the opinion that it is.

Harold

 

Looks Like the Real Thing!

Tuesday, August 29, 7:19 am EST. Our market for the metals will open in about 40 minutes. The metals are up significantly more overseas overnight. We have to give this new rally the benefit of the doubt. It is looking like the real thing!

I’ll check on what price does after our metals market opens here, and I’ll look in again after the stocks open at 9:30. Further, It’s worth looking again between 10 and 10:30, or so. I do believe that it may be time to put on another trade. If I do, it’ll be a position in NUGT. I have my long-standing ‘insurance’ positions in place, but I want to leverage up with a trading position in the highly leveraged ETF, NUGT.

You make your own decision, and set your own rules and stop, but don’t let it come back around to bite you, if it doesn’t work out.

Watch for this… it is NOT necessary to load up right away, with all the dry powder you had set aside for this kind of trading. These moves often fall back to test previous resistance, to find that it becomes support. If it does come back down to test the new support level, that is a more excellent time to acquire your position.

So, we’ve reason to believe that this is it! It looks to be the birth of a new genuine rally in precious metals!

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8:26 am. Alright. I got the news. Looking around, it’s the NK missile over Japan story. That’s not good. And, this isn’t likely to go away quickly. It’s likely to get worse, before it gets better. This metals trade will be fraught with RISK, because the first word of good news, should it resolve, somehow, quickly and speedily, will kick the legs right out from under this trade. I’m not near as likely to try it, unless it’s going to be an in-today… out before the end of the week, kind of a deal. And, to be honest, I have no heart for that kind of frenetic trading, because I rarely watch the markets intra-day. The price is up over an NK missile. It’ll come right off, once this smoke settles, and we don’t know when or how.

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12:33 pm. As I was concerned about… prices have actually fallen back a good bit from the morning’s open. The idea of trying to jump aboard quickly, because things were bad, and were going to keep driving prices higher, wasn’t what I had thought would happen, due to the nature of the event that caused this. If it falls back to prior resistance, and proves to be support, we might have something here, but for now… I’m not playing it.

Harold

Is It Here???

Monday, August 28, 5:36 pm EST. The metals had a very good day. I was away all day, and was pleasantly surprised when I got back home and looked in on the day. Gold closed well above the $1,300 level, which was what it was going to have to do, if it was going to garner the attention and respect it needed in order to rally. So, is this it?

Until I examine all the charts, I can’t say… so, I’m diving right in with keen interest. Oooo, Big Pop! Everything is up bigly, and on tremendous volume, too! So, before I even ask the questions, the answers are yes, yes and yes!

Price rose very well. Volume was up tremendously, and resistance was shattered! I note volume as being 65% higher than its own 50-day moving average of volume. That’s big enough to get my attention. Resistance was being tested, and had been closed above, just a bit on Friday… and, today’s price move is a very good spike. The 50-day average of price for the average of all 16 symbols broke through, and closed up above the 200-day moving average of price… a thing called a “Golden Cross.”

Since, I cannot be a buyer now (the markets are closed), I will see what prices look like before I go to bed, and after I get up in the morning. I’ll watch the open, and consider opening a position in NUGT. More later… but, we have nearly all that we would be looking for as reasons to try to get aboard what looks to be a bona fide rally in the metals and miners. Let’s hope that it is, but be prepared to bail, if it isn’t.

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Looking in on metals prices overseas at 7:57 pm EST, they are up another goodly amount. This could indeed be the real deal, my friends!!! Let’s see what the morning looks like.

Harold

Decent Move

Monday, August 28, 6:26 am EST. There’s been a decent upward move in the precious metals overnight. I’ve yet to learn of any reason, but we’re bumping on that door of overhead resistance again. It IS going to break through. I just don’t know if it will be this time, or not. Unless, and until, I see the kind of volume that says this move has attracted the attention of big traders and investors, I’m not buying it. The risk is too high at just this point.

However, today is worth watching, because gold might crack the $1,300 barrier with a force that demonstrates there’s a new rally, and it might have legs to it. Is that so much to ask for???

Harold

Anything Worth Trading?

Saturday, August 26, 12:42 pm EST. I called the last tradable bottom back about mid-July. We’ve since seen an intermediate low August 8. We popped from out of there, and have been going in a somewhat wide sideways channel since 8/10.

Speaking of the chart of all 16 symbols I’m tracking, in just in the past couple of days, we’ve crossed above the resistance line that I had drawn. The 50-day is just now about to cross up thru the 200- day moving average. Price is above both. Volume has been building, but is not yet above its 50-day average. And, or but, the last candlestick is not a bullish one, but is more indicative of a point of indecision.

What has been going on is an incredibly stealthy “bull market” of sorts. It’s not something worthy of trading, and it’s not getting any attention, or being touted by anyone yet, best I can tell.

Harold

Hey, Everybody, Watch This!

Friday, August 25, 12:50 pm EST. Well, looking in on all the charts… the metals are UP, and the volume on the metal ETFs only, GLD and SLV, are both way ahead of normal or average… But, the same cannot, at all, be said for the miners! Most are up, but the volume for them is UNimpressive.

We’re bumping right up against overhead resistance, and even peaking above it a bit, right now, but… is it meaningful? Is it significant? We will soon know… but, first, we must see volume also come to the miners, as well as the metals ETFs!

Harold

Will It Break Out???

Friday, August 25, 10:54 am EST. Metals had been floating just lately, but now are making an attempt to rise, and to threaten overhead resistance once again. Will it succeed in breaking through to the upside, over $1,300 an oz.? I don’t know. It’s not possible to know. All we can do is carefully watch and wait. If it does, and there’s any real volume to that effort, it just may be the break we’ve been waiting for all this time.

And, if it isn’t, we will just keep watching and waiting… it’ll be worth it!

Harold

Taking a Breath

Wednesday, August 23, 6:22 am EST. Back up and running. Required a total of 5 restarts for everything to work again… thanks, Microsoft. (Yeh, right!)

The metals are up ever so slightly this morning. Nearly everything was down some Tuesday. So, a look at each chart is in order. It appears that this market is digesting the most recent small rise since 8/8, and is marking out a short sideways consolidation for this past week… all the while, knocking on overhead resistance on an intra-day basis. Volume was light, being off by 26%.

It’s interesting to watch in any case, but it’s a game of watch and wait! Waiting for the technical price breakout, on real volume that says bigger money is getting involved, and sees higher prices ahead. When will that happen? More likely after Labor Day, and perhaps not until Fall has arrived. But, I’m quite certain the metal’s day is coming again!

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7:56 am EST. For whatever the reason… the metals have moved somewhat higher since I first posted. Is anything actually going on?

Harold

Darned Microsoft!

Tuesday, August 22, 5:34 pm EST. Microsoft has just done another one of those patch-up downloads to fix whatever they do when they tell you to restart your computer, so as to put all those things in place. All well and good, right? Wrong. Now, my stock charting and analytical program will not start! Oh, well… when I can get things to work again, I’ll write something!

Harold