Put a Fork In It?

So much for the big launch Wednesday the 15th, I guess. Where do things stand as of today?

A quick look thru all 16 charts, as well as a chart of an average of all 16 issues as one, shows that nothing is going on… at all! I remember hoping that the 21st might have been meaningful, and it actually wasn’t. Since then, price and volume has just been very slowly and gently petering out. Today’s volume was 32% below the average.

Really… there’s nothing to relate. No rally, no decline, no volume… it’s just now pretty much drifting sideways!

We’ll watch vigilantly, and makes some noise when there’s reason to shout out.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

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Wednesday, Day 10

So, whatever took place back on the 15th, two weeks ago… as far as giving us all reason to watch for the exciting kick-off to a brand new rally in gold… technically speaking, all comes to naught today, if there is not going to be a confirmation, follow-through rally to give that first one credence.

And, here we are, on the morning of Day 10, and the metals have not rallied overnight, overseas, or opened up bigly here in the U.S. So, we’ll see how this day goes, and write of the result after its over. I never took any new positions these past 2 weeks, though I had “threatened” to, but reason or fear got to me first, and I never pulled the trigger. If you did, I trust you kept them on a very short leash, and that you will consider closing them out, perhaps as soon as before this day’s close. We’ll see if today’s action reflects other traders doing that very same thing… will it decline into the close, toward the end of the trading day?

In the future, I will await a confirmation, and this experience has helped me to see the greater wisdom in wanting to do so.

Harold

Not So Timely Tuesday!

I had gotten that intelligence that showed where bonds, interest rates, gold and the dollar were, and put that in an earlier post. These were all at support or resistance. Well, I said it would likely go one of two ways… back off of those support or resistance levels, or finally smash through them.

I expressed a hope or opinion that they might break through, and that was what I would be watching for, as gold would lift off… but, alas, such was not the case! Bond prices fell back from resistance. Bond yields rose from support. And, sadly, gold fell back from its 200-day moving average line, which is current resistance.

So, our miners have not been having a good day. But, my common stocks in other corporations sure have. You gotta find a silver lining somewhere!

Harold

Timely Tuesday?

Please see the previous post or two… I said I’d also examine the charts after the Monday move.

It was an up day, but not what you’d expect, as the day opened higher than it closed, but closed considerably higher than Friday… that sends a very mixed message, so we have to go inside and look at all 16 symbols we’re tracking.

First, we’ve issues to the upside on average volume, as with: PVG, SLV and GLD, RGLD, GDX, PAAS and SLW.

Others rose, also, but on light volume, as with: ABX, SSRI, SGDM, NUGT, SILJ, HL, AG, FSM and CDE.

So, despite initial appearances, a peek under the hood, suggests that both price, and especially volume, which was not above average, but 11% below average… Monday was not a follow-through, confirmation rally type of day. I’m sorry. The jury is still out, and time is also running out. But, this Tuesday could be significant for the reasons I just posted earlier, and, the metals are up before the open, as I type… so, we now watch more closely, and wait, poised to pounce, if circumstances give us the Go!

Harold

Info Comes My Way

I watch the metals and the miners… but, sometime, during the day, yesterday… I got an email from the stockcharts.com people, specifically John Murphy, and got all the whys.

Bond yields have fallen to their channel lows. Conversely, bond prices have risen to their channel highs. The $USD has fallen to about its 200-day mov avg line. And, gold? Well, gold has risen to its 200-day mov avg line. Since all of these 4 components are nearly all right at their respective support or resistance lines… the expectation is that they could now all reverse and go back the other way… or, and what many will be watching for; each could break their respective lines of support or resistance, and then we’ll see an all-new move in the direction of their breaks.

If those lines hold… gold will go down. But, if those very same lines should be broken, gold will lift-off. I’m of an opinion that scenario number 2 is what will happen, and gold will launch. If so, we’ll call it, and got on-board for that ride. More to follow…

Harold

In The Morning

It’s late Monday… I’ll get to everything Tuesday morning, but this I know. Prices closed Monday lower than they opened, even though the close was considerably higher than Friday. I’ll look and explain what I see Tuesday morning……..

Harold

What Are We Looking For?

It’s Monday morning. It’s 6:45 am EST. And, what are we looking for? A movement in the metals and miners on volume, right?

Well, don’t look now, but it’s Day 8 since the first pop to catch our attention… and, gold is up bigly overseas!!! Gold AND silver are each up in price more than 1% overseas as I type.

THIS is the type of price move we look for… now, we must see how it translates here in the States, after our markets open this morning.

IF, by either 10, or 10:30, if you wish to be as cautious as is prudent, and prices for the metals and miners are strong, with volume pushing them hard… THIS would be a time to jump in.

I’ll be looking, and I’ll be wanting to take a position in NUGT, as well… I think. The thought of being triple leveraged scares the bejeebers out of me, but it’s been a long winter; spring has yet to arrive, and I could use the excitement!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

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Sure was right about waiting until after 10…. almost 1/3 of the early gain has been lopped off, from more than a $16 increase to now $11 and change.

Weekend Wrap-Up

It’s Saturday, March 25. We’ve been awaiting a long anticipated rally in the precious metals, and shares of their miners. Here’s what we know: There has been a technical price bottom put in place back in December. That bottom begins on the 15th, and price rose out of it from the 23rd. We had a very tepid, unexciting ‘rally’ of sorts, that lifted prices to a peak on 2/8. For a month, from 2/8 to 3/8, prices settled back in what was, at first, a consolidative manner, but became a correction. The correction commenced to put in a higher low, from the 8th, into Wednesday the 15th of this month, 10 days ago.

On Wednesday, the 15th, we got a real nice price pop on considerably greater volume. This is the manner in which a desirable rally starts, but we then begin to look for confirmation of it, by means of a follow-through. The follow-through confirmation will typically happen after the first pop has been digested, and is looked for to take place within the 4th to 7th trading days after the initial kicking off of a rally. Yesterday, Friday the 24th, was that 7th trading day after the hopeful pop on the 15th… and, there has not yet been any confirmation follow-through. The action on Tuesday, the 21st, in price, looked as though it might have been one, but upon further inspection of price, and then, of volume, it was pretty clear that it was not. We would typically give a market just 3 more trading days to follow-through and confirm. That would take us to Wednesday, the 29th. After that, all bets are off. So, with that analysis, lets look at all 16 charts for anything…

We’ll start with any that rose on light volume, or were, at least, unchanged. These would include: PVG, GLD, SLV and RGLD.

Others fell on light volume, such as: ABX, SSRI, SGDM, SLW, GDX, SILJ, HL, NUGT, AG, FSM and CDE.

I’ve got a decliner on average volume in PAAS.

We’ve got 2 things here: First, I already know that volume for an average of all 16 must have been light, and a look tells me that it was. Average volume was down by 40%! Second, both gold and silver rose on Friday, but the preponderance of miners did not. This, sort-of, confirms my notion that traders were lightening up, and getting out of some shares on day 7, when no follow-through, confirmation rally was materializing. If I may throw a third observation in, I would further guess  that as we approach, and go thru day 10 next week, I would expect that maybe even further selling might take place, as traders give up on the hope of any rally altogether… Let’s see if that should play out. I hate trying to predict… especially the future!

I will often try to anticipate what I think might happen in the markets, but I know I can never tell any market what to do, so I always try to let it tell me what it is doing, and plan accordingly.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

It’s Friday, Day 7!

I’ve not been writing. I said what needed to happen… and, nothing’s been happening. This is Friday. The metals popped back on Wednesday, March 15. Thursday was day 1, Friday day 2, Monday day 3, Tuesday day 4, Wednesday day 5, Thursday day 6, and now, here we are… it’s Friday day 7. If the market is not going to react with a confirming, follow-through rally, then the pop of last Wednesday probably does not contain the meaning that I had hoped.

There’s 3 more days to go; Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday the 29th, before we actually capitulate, and just throw in the towel, saying… we’re not going to get the rally we wanted… again, maybe. Only in that case, it becomes much more of a certainty.

So, we continue to watch and to wait. I’m glad now I didn’t try to get bold, and step up before I had better assurances. I’ll bring a weekend wrap-up, with a look at all 16 charts next, if nothing else should take place.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell