This Week Has Ended!

Saturday, 4/29 10:43 am EST. This past week is over. Trading has ceased, and a technical chart pattern has been established, that anyone could read. How I wish I knew if I could post charts here, and how… but, I am an older, technologically-challenged guy, and know how to type rapidly with one finger on each hand! Technology and I are barely even on speaking terms. But, give me a set of tools, and a car, motorcycle or mower, and step back and look out!

So, what have we got? Let’s do the charts for all 16 symbols, then the one chart for the average of them all.

First, I see gainers on average volume with: RGLD, GLD, HL, GDX, SLW, SSRI, CDE, PAAS, AG, ABX, FSM and NUGT.

And, decliners on average volume: SLV.

Gainers on light volume, as with: SGDM, PVG and SILJ.

My ‘guess’ is we had a slightly up day on average volume, when I chart the average for all 16. I look, and indeed, that’s all that has happened. Volume on the day was not 3% above average!

The read is incredibly easy. Nearest-term support has been put into place, and has held, for 4 straight trading days, to include Friday. March lows and December lows are the very most important price support levels we have at this time, and they look quite secure, from this current vantage point. Silver has been going straight down, since 4/13, for 10 straight trading days in a row! That has got to be some kind of a record, or near-record of sorts, that would tell me… though I am NOT tracking, or measuring it, that it is likely to experience a relief rally of sorts very soon. A check on measures like RSI and Stochastics at stockcharts.com, and silver is indeed oversold!

Here’s what we’ve got. We have a bullish scenario playing out, that began last December. A look at GLD gives us a clear bullish chart pattern of higher lows, and higher highs. With the latest high of 4/13 to be current resistance. Nearly every volume spike of any size above the 50-day moving average of volume, since 3/14, is green, indicating that was UP volume. The case is building. The verdict is becoming more clear and obvious.

And, at some point, there is going to be a jumping on-board of a great many more traders, to start pushing the metals and miners higher, as this technical pattern cannot be ignored, and is not going to be overlooked forever.

Will it all unravel, and come undone??? The chart doesn’t say anything like that at this time… and silver, having been all beat up, like it has these past 2 weeks… a relief rally is likely on its way!

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell

Advertisements

Flat Friday

Friday, 4/28 9:22 am EST. Really… there is NOTHING to report. Metals prices are so flat as to be saying nothing as of this moment in time.

A look into the charts from yesterday’s close is in order, to see if that near-term support was broken, as I had thought it would be… or not. More later… very soon!

______________________

The chart for gold itself, as the ETF, GLD, looks great! All kinds of previous resistance back from 2/8 thru 2/22 became support on 3/22, and has been support thru 4/10, when the last lift-off ensued.

Now, the very nearest-term resistance was established on 2/24 thru 2/28, and was resistance again on 3/27 thru 4/10; being broken thru on 4/11. Price has now dropped back from its most recent near-term high on 4/17+18, to the very previous resistance levels just mentioned above. It fell to that level on Tuesday, 4/25, and has held both Wednesday and Thursday! This indicates that nearest-term resistance is presently acting as support now!!!

If this should continue to hold up for any appreciable time longer… as I wrote, maybe only the last post, it should attract some attention, and we could see a new launch from here. But, I will caution you and myself, I need to update the timer, and I need to see where it says real support looks to be within the program… and to see if it better coincides with earlier price support or not… and, especially if it should be above the December lows… and, even better, should it appear to coincide with the March lows.

More later… stay tuned!

_____________________

Further confirmation of the above… charting all 16 symbols as an average, the picture is similar. That is; the December and March lows are serious levels of support, but that nearest-term support is in the vicinity of the top of the 3/15 pop top. That very level was tested for 3 straight days after the 15th, those being 3/16, 17 and 20. That price support level is the very one being tested again here on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of this week. I KNOW that traders are eying this price chart formation in gold, and in miners, as I have just reported to you. I know that they are watching to see if this should hold or break. I know that they likely expect it to break, rather than hold. I know that real traders are going to play the next move as they see price either break support, or breakout to the upside on volume.

We’re gonna watch and wait… I’m going to update the timer to try to plot where support would likely be, in the event this immediate support should fail, as I believe real opportunity will reveal itself to us at that time. Still more later, but in a new post.

Harold

It’s Thursday…

Thursday, 4/27 8:30 am EST. Well, it’s Thursday… On Wednesday, common stocks closed down, and the metals up.

This morning, I see the metals down, and stock futures up a bit. It’s a see-saw, rollercoaster ride. I own metals and miners, and I own stocks. I have a stock blog here: https://dividendgrowthinvesting.wordpress.com/  Feel free to peruse that, if you would like.

As I noted previously, almost nothing broke price support levels with Tuesday’s smash, and Wednesday kept prices above those nearest-term support levels. Today, they might fail, but as I had written, I would actually expect them to, and I would almost welcome that, as it is necessary, after the December to February run-up, the Feb to Mar decline, and the now broken, mid-March into mid-April rally… all of which have been eking out a bullish higher low kind of price pattern, needs to digest/correct and/or consolidate the most recent gains from mid-March; which it all appears to be doing.

The real need, at this point, becomes… that the March lows hold, so as to create a double-bottom support and launching point, and even more particularly, we absolutely must have the December lows to hold. These are the 2 primary previous support levels that all eyes will be upon.

IF, the very nearest-term support level, established by the March 15 pop-top, which is that level that has held Tuesday and Wednesday, should continue to hold… there’s going to be a level of excitement to likely come to this market, that really ought to create the kind of positive buzz, that I would expect would result in a substantial rally move within the next month, and probably no more than 2.

This, of course, is prognostication, and remains to be seen. But, this is always the thing I try to think through, and to project, so as to see if it might not come to fruition on the basis of what would seem like some pretty logical ‘reading’ and ‘interpretation’ of that which the charts would seem to imply. As always, predicting, especially the future, is very hard… so said Yogi Berra.

Harold

What’s In Store?

Wednesday 4/26, 8:23 am EST. Tuesday hurt. It was a tough outing for the metals and miners. But, what does it means for us?

I’ll run the whole gamut…

We have those that declined, (shoot, they all declined!) on big volume, like these: RGLD, GLD and SLV, SLW, GDX, CDE, HL, PAAS, SSRI, AG, PVG, ABX (Big Time!), SILJ, FSM and NUGT.

Others declined, but on light volume: SGDM.

What do these charts say? First, we have December and March support levels. In nearly every instance, these are still intact, and not violated. That’s a truly huge positive at this point. Second, the very nearest term price support is not the March lows, but the bottom of the more sideways price action which is found at the very top of the Wednesday, March 15 pop in price. That support was indeed threatened yesterday, but held, and prices bounced from off of that. Frankly, I don’t believe it’s going to hold, but it certainly could.

I will be updating the timer, and looking the measures of market risk, and I will be assessing whether they might possibly give a signal, should prices get down as far as the March lows, so as to possibly, or even likely, put in a double-bottom. If it could/would, that would be a great opportunity to possibly take note of where a new rally launch might be able to come from.

Don’t give up hope. If we ever catch one of the truly big bull runs… we’re going to make a killing!

Harold

Not Much…

Tuesday, 4/25 9:27 am EST. Not much is going on. The French election results gave back a whole new “risk-on” scenario, and so money flew out of the metals, and back into stocks.

Two things can be said about Monday’s stock burst. First, the pop was not on any great volume, and; second, there wasn’t a lot of participation. Or, in other words, my favorite kind of stock, which I call Safe-Dividend Growers were not particularly favored in the move.

Beyond that, it was based upon one geo-political event, which is not the best reason, or foundation, for a rally in any case, usually… so, it could all come undone rather easily, truth be told.

I’ll watch. I’ll wait. And, I’ll update the timer, to watch for the wringing out of market risk. Hopefully a low-risk entry scenario will play out for us, and we will also see technical price support levels to hold, that we might have good reason to consider looking for, and participating in, another great precious metals rally for large gains.

Harold

Nearly Predicted…

Monday, 4/24 7:29 am EST. Well, the French election results brought us lower prices overnight, overseas. What metals prices have done was not totally unexpected. It wasn’t as if I predicted any such thing, but my measures of the market risk in gold were all high, and I was saying, as well as finding essays and articles to share with you, that we were more likely to take a trip down, than up. And, that is what has been happening.

I’ll get back later, perhaps after today’s close. We continue to wait and watch, and we will hope that levels of price support remain intact… but, they might get taken out.

Harold

 

 

Cap the Week

Saturday, 4/23 2:34 pm EST. Time to recap the entire week. Let’s check all charts, and an average for all 16 symbols.

It’s looks as if gold recently launched on Wed. 3/15. That lift stopped 4/13, 17+18, after a 1 month run. Silver peaked the 13th, and has been in decline every day since.

A look at the other 14 symbols for miners, and a few miner ETF funds and royalty firms shows this: It’s been a nice price run, but it’s time to correct/consolidate/digest the recent gains. Traders get out here, and nail down some profit. Measures of risk are high, and need to unwind, so as to indicate risk is being or has been wrung out. I’ll update my timer to look for that.

The actual technical picture for nearly every symbol, and for the average of all is one of a bullish uptrend, which commenced out of the December 15 thru 23 lows. They ran up to 2/8… declined into a 3/8-15 bottom, higher than the December lows, and lifted off again. We’ve peaked 4/13, and backed off a bit, but not in violation of any level of technical price support. I can see 3 levels of price support under the current price level… as I measure risk, I’ll watch for indicator signals to potentially set-up around one of those levels of price support.

If I see that, as something like that will happen at some point in the future, I’ll give a holler!

Harold

Some Useful Intel

Friday, 4/21, 1:15 pm EST. This came my way yesterday. It’s not good news for silver. See:

“Futures Traders Are All-In on Higher Silver Prices

Precious metals are booming, once again, in 2017.

Gold is up double digits and silver is up almost 15%. But silver could be getting ahead of itself.

Futures traders are all over this trade. They’re now making extreme bullish bets on higher silver prices. And history says lower silver prices are likely, starting now.

Here are the details…

Futures bets on higher silver prices are at an all-time high based on the Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report. This is a warning sign precious metals investors should pay attention to.

Longtime readers are familiar with the COT report. It tells us exactly what futures traders are doing with their money. And at extremes like we see today, it’s a contrarian tool.

That’s because when futures traders all making the same bet, it signals a crowded trade… And the opposite usually occurs. Today, futures traders are all betting on higher silver prices. Take a look…

041917-tws-cot-silver

Again, this is a contrarian signal. The COT tells us futures traders are all betting on higher silver prices. And the smart move is to take the opposite side of their bet.

The only other time futures traders were this bullish on silver was August 2016. The metal fell 24% over four months after that.

Surprisingly, that’s the only other time in history futures traders have been this bullish. And while I’m not calling for a 20% fall in silver, a double-digit decline wouldn’t be surprising.

Again, futures bets on higher silver prices are at an all-time high. As a contrarian, this is not what we want to see. I will be more interested when the script is flipped and futures traders are all making bearish bets on silver.

We aren’t recommending to short silver today. But if you own the metal it might be time to take your gains off the table.”

There you have it, along with the other negative stuff I’ve posted of late.

Harold

Sick or Well?!?!?

Thursday, 4/20 7:26 pm EST. Sixteen symbols, and only 3 were losers. So, what’s happening?

Gold is actually looking good. GLD has been having some big volume on up days since Friday the 7th. And, lift-off came after a brief bowl-shaped consolidation from Monday, 3/27 thru Thursday, April 6. It shows a true picture of health from out of the 12/15 thru 23 bottom… it’s just not being loved. Wednesday 3/15 set a new tone, and it’s had a more bullish appearance to it since. Besides 3/15, there’s been 10 other above average volume days of gains in GLD. It’s price has broken up thru its 50-day on that 15th. It’s exceeded and cleared its downtrending  200-day on the 11th of this month. The 50-day has been uptrending, and it won’t be long, another week or two, and that 50-day will break up thru the 200-day, for a Golden Cross. All of this is bullish, but it’s not getting any love… there’s no fire. What of any of the other symbols?

Truth be told, the miners don’t look near as healthy as gold presently does… not even silver. A goodly number of the issues I’ve been following look positively ill!

RGLD looks well; quite well. Let me post the rest as well or sickly-looking.

Well: RGLD, GLD and ABX.

Sickly: SLV, GDX, SLW, SGDM, HL, CDE, AG, SSRI, SILJ, NUGT and FSM.

In-Between: PVG, PAAS.

The miners, for the most part, are not doing as well as gold. That’s generally not a positive sign. I’d expect better. But, it is what it is, and I’m not going to candy-coat it. If gold should continue to do well, everything else will follow… but, it’s certainly doing that at this time.

Harold