Only A Matter of Time

Thursday, May 31, 6:12 am EST. A Glorious Memorial Day to America. Some 2.1 million U.S. fighting men, and some women, have died in our wars to set us free, and to keep us free. I’m sure not a one of them wanted to, but each was willing to give their lives, if necessary, so that we could be who and what we are today. It didn’t come free… but, at a horrific price. The cost of maintaining our liberties is eternal vigilance… we each must do our part to keep it!

Looking in on the metals market overnight, prices have firmed up a bit. They’ve been basing lately, after the dip back on 5/15.

Now, I want to make this ‘boast,’ if I may… My mining stock selections have been doing a whole lot better than both a.) the metals, and b.) the mining funds! As I chart 16 symbols with 50 and 200-day moving averages, I note the following:

Gold, as repped by GLD, is below its 50 and 200 day averages. Silver, as repped by SLV, is doing the same.

Looking to the mining funds, SGDM is under its 200, and at its 50, which is beneath the 200. GDX looks just the same. Put NUGT in the very same category. Price is at its 50, which is beneath its 200. SILJ, however, IS above its uptrending 50, but still beneath, but very close to, its 200-day. And, that brings up another point… when you have a mining fund of juniors outperforming the mining fund for the majors… that’s a bullish sign.

So, putting the 6 symbols for the metals and mining funds aside, I have some 10 mining company stock symbols. AG is above its 50 and 200-day, with its 50 also just crossing above the 200; very bullish. FSM is above its 50 and 200-day, and its 50 is way above the 200; bullish. PAAS is above its 50, which has also recently crossed above the 200, and recently made a new 6 month high; bullish.  SSRM can be described as PAAS was; bullish. WPM is above its 50, which is above its 200, and is bullish. RGLD, the other royalty firm, besides WPM, is very near to new 6 month highs, and a very healthy price above the 50, which is above the 200, and the 50 is providing solid support. We’re talking a very bullish picture here, as its about to challenge a major point of overhead resistance.

Hecla, symbol HL, was the one I wrote of as having 3 insiders buy last December at the metals and mining share bottom. It’s experienced an important low and bottom on 3/20, and has done well since, rising above its 50 day, and approaching its 200-day. ABX, the one true 800 lb. gorilla of miners, put down a very serious, important bottom on 3/1, and has been rising since. It’s showing a bullish characteristic of having gotten above its 50-day on 4/10, and marching right on up, showing that 50-day to have become support, and could soon be challenging its 200-day. CDE is neither hot nor cold. It is dead, flat, sideways. Price is at the 50, which right at the 200. BUT, recent highs of 4/19, and the last great high in the metals and miners of 1/24, is not far away! Finally, PVG had taken a bath, since the January top, and has been my one lone disappointment, but it has been eking out a long flat base ever since 2/2, and, like ABX, shows a genuine change in character, beginning right on 3/1, and has been walking up a slightly uptrending 50-day ever since 4/10, so I am not inclined to shed it.

If we wait patiently, and hang in there, I believe we’re going to have a great opportunity to make some very serious money within this year, and that the move that is to come will only be the beginning of a much larger move to follow; one that will likely generate great wealth for those who watch for, and follow it! That’s what I intend to do.

Harold

Just a Thought…

Tuesday, May 29, 10:13 am EST. It occurred to me that if there’s any way we’re going to see a true metals rally, I should try to find out if… Any mining company executives are buyers of their company’s shares? In other words, is there any insider buying going on?

I punched my symbols into a website, insidercow.com , and learned that 3 high-level executives at Hecla Mining, symbol HL, were buyers of their company’s shares last December, right around the most recent major metals and mining share bottom!

I’d have loved to have found a whole lot more, but even one is a very good sign, as they certainly know a whole lot better than I do what’s going on with their own company’s business.

Now, it’s interesting, that as well as they timed their purchases, they were “wrong” as even their company’s share price was lower… on that date I noted, in hindsight, was a real turn in this market… March 20, 2018. It has performed considerably better since that date, as has all the market in the miners. I see it as a most important turning point, and a support level to be watched carefully.

Harold

In A Better Place!

Tuesday, May 29, 5:16 am EST. Some of you may read my stock market investment blog here: https://dividendgrowthinvesting.wordpress.com/   If you do, you already know that I have gotten my wife and I unto our retirement income goal. We set out to do so 7 years ago, and worked a plan that got us there. It’s all on that blogsite….

Now, with that goal having been achieved, we’re in a better place. I absolutely do not need to be doing any of this trading stuff whatsoever! I do this because I “hope to catch a big wave” at some point in the near future. It’s out there. I know it is… and, I want to be right there when it comes, and ride it to new levels of personal financial accomplishment. That, and because I’ll get bored in retirement, if I don’t keep active in a number of ways, including this daily watch of the metals and miners.

Over the weekend, I occasionally looked at metals prices and stock futures, when those markets were open, and I saw our stock futures up, and the metals down. I thought, well, maybe we’ll be a bit of a downtrend for awhile… but, I recalled the technicals, and also thought… But, risk is already largely wrung-out. Just how much further down can they go? After all, support isn’t far below, and I’d sure hate to see that taken out.

But, here we are this morning, and stock futures are down, and the metals are up. Since I own a good bit of both; to the point of practically being market neutral, I’m never much bothered by whatever direction prices take. Add to that, I invest in stock issues for income, and we’re generating that income we are wanting already; and we’re in a better place, as I’ve stated already.

Looking over all the charts, let me be clear, on the basis of just the 2 simple moving averages of 50-day and 200-day, which many rely upon, silver is “bearish” in that its price is currently under its 50-day, which is under its 200-day, and both of those lines are completing a downward move, and are currently dead-flat-sideways, as price, itself has been pretty much going, within a channel, all this year, so far. It’s enough to put anyone to sleep. To which I say… Great! Go to sleep, all of you! When it begins to awaken, and truly move out, I want to be right there, and catch it!

Gold is a somewhat similar story… price is under the 50-day, and the 50-day is under the 200-day, but the 50-day is uptrending, and while the 200-day is slightly down-trending, the 2 are not far from intersecting.

Those technical pictures are relatively unimportant, and may be throwing many others off the trail or scent of the metals. Again, I see that as a plus! You see, by tracking some 16 symbols, including GLD, SLV and ABX, in one watchlist, and being able to sort that watchlist by a relative strength reading of their price moves… more and more, I am seeing my miners, and mining fund symbols, outperforming the metals. That does not happen without a reason. And, I am saying that the reason is: There is a very subtle stealth bull market underneath all this action, ABX cannot hide it, and many others are mirroring that bullish action, and if you want to see what I am talking about, and have charting capability… I’ve been tracking, for a long time now, my own mining stock selections, and see what these symbols are doing, and why I am optimistic: AG, SSRM, SILJ, PAAS, FSM, ABX and RGLD. It’s not that the others are bad, it’s just that they haven’t strengthened in the manner or to the point, that these have… those others are showing signs of strengthening, as well. But, the one key I’m holding on to is how that the miners are strengthening at a rate considerably faster than the very metals themselves… to me, this likely says that those ‘in the know’ may be accumulating shares?

Which gives me an idea! Watch for my next post!

Harold

 

This Could Work…

Thursday, May 24, 8:18 pm EST. Well, it’s worth noting  that today was an unusually good day for the prices of the metals and their miners!

As I go through the 16 charts, and finally the one chart that aggregates all of them… I see good price moves, and on volume, too! Though, to be honest, that volume, on average, was only 8% greater than its own 50-day. But, understand, the volume for the previous 6 days was all well below the 50-day average, so today’s truly was a considerable expansion of volume. Evidence is there that interest is building, my friends!

We can’t lose heart. Opportunity will come to those of us who wait, watch and are prepared to act upon it.

I updated the timer, and well, it was right there with this turn. Let’s see if it will amount to anything, before we commit. But Price was between its lower bands. F1 only got to about 16… that didn’t count. F2 had signaled, but I can’t count it for much, as it’s almost always first and early… But, F3 got to 0, and that’s a good signal! F4 had previously signaled, and that was still in force. F5 had gotten under 40, to 32, and has turned up. It’s a signal. Then, F6… it had gotten down to about 2. Between F3 and F6… I should really be watching those 2 especially. It seems that when they both go just about as low as they can go on their respective scales… why, we’re on to something, it would seem.

Let’s follow this for a while. Good things look to have begun to happen on 3/1 and more so 3/20. And, since then, there’s been something of a stealth bull market taking a better shape… Now, it may be starting to show its hand. Today was a real good first effort. We need a little of that to show some ‘good faith,’ and to break through the overhead resistance. It’s not all that far away… When that resistance falls, I expect there will be quite a rush into the sector. We want to join that, when it commences.

If anyone wants to dare a position now, it strikes me as a reasonable chance of working out fairly well… I won’t, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for not trying to be ‘first in’ right here. But, please, put a tight stop under it… no need to get hurt needlessly.

Harold

We’re Up Overnight!

Thursday, May 24, 7:32 am EST. I was concerned earlier in the week. Metals prices were being whacked hard overseas, but the situation righted itself before our stock markets opened here in the States that morning… and, so the price charts showed nothing of the sort. Now, overnight, overseas, we’re up a bit in gold, and decent amount in silver.

The chart take on everything is still bullish and positive… we’ve just been stuck in a price channel since the beginning of the year. But that channel was broken on 5/15, and we’ve gone sideways, basing, since. The channel violation was a negative, but the line of support drawn from the January, July, December 2017 lows is still intact, and far more important than the 2018 channel was. Another way of stating this: Any gold price chart that includes, or only starts, with the mid-December 2015 bottom, is a positive and bullish looking chart.

There is some truly, big-time, overhead price resistance just about 5.4% higher from here, as I calculate it. But, to be more direct… If GLD were to commence to pass $130, on expanding volume, I would be shouting and pounding the table to buy, Buy, BUY!!! But, with a tight stop under the former resistance to protect against a bull trap possibly being sprung.

Also, I would certainly hope that such a breakout would also include a push-back, or sell-off, that would result in a retesting of the previous resistance, to seek to establish it as a new line of price support. We’re keeping our eye on this, and it’s still looking positive out there in front of us.

Harold

Did Not Crash & Burn!

Wednesday, May 23, 6:47 am EST. I thought it interesting that prices seemed to have wanted to go down further, and that I thought silver support was going to get taken out… but, then as I checked in the metals market later, after it had opened in the States, seemingly all was okay. So, what, if anything actually did happen? I’m going to put up all the charts, and take a look, as well as a read of them.

Nothing. Nothing is happening. All is well, and all is steady. We’re working on a kind of base of sorts, I’d say; and that we’re awaiting some catalyst that is going to propel prices further, ultimately through overhead resistance, and on to a new bull market rally, that will cause our miners to scream. Each day, we’re getting closer to it. I’m watching for that, and waiting, as I want to ride one real good gold rally to some awesome profits at least one time in my life before I die!

Harold

 

What’s Next?

Monday, May 21, 7:14 am EST. Metals are off. What’s up? I’m not sure yet, but the most pertinent news I saw over the weekend was that headline which said that “USA, China agree to abandon trade war”. When I saw that headline over the weekend, I knew that could be a metals price mover, and a stock price mover. It may well be, as metals are off a good bit, and stock futures are up a good bit.

Since I am a very active investor in both, I am both hurt and helped whichever way things should go. I am not concerned, or fearful, in either case. I seem to have inadvertently struck quite a balance, a near market neutrality, between the two. I expect my metals investments will have a tough outing today, but that my stocks will do quite well. In any case, I invest in the stocks that I do… for the income, and not for the appreciation, and since we are at 94% of the way toward our portfolio dividend income goal, and that toward our retirement income goal; we feel very comfortable where we stand at the present time.

Today does not hold out any great hope at all. Silver support may be broken, and gold has a way to go before it should break… but, I will be on the watch for, and will report, what I see as a price and volume move to the downside today, based upon what will be perceived as a fundamental change in conditions, as they effect the metals prices.

I’ve said this before, and I say it again now. Fundamental issues, particularly as they enter into the news, will trump technical indicators. Technicals are by no means absolute, but only suggestive, subjective, and helpful. Risk, as measured by the technicals, is largely wrung out. But, now, on the basis of news that maybe striking right at very fundamental aspects of that which has to do with the pricing of gold and silver, we may see a very destructive move, that will take out the technicals. When something like that happens… it becomes much harder to know when the actual bottom has been (is being) put into place. Stay tuned for more…

Harold

Happy Timer?

Sunday, May 20, 5:00 pm EST. It’s been a couple of weeks, but I knew it was time to update the OEXpert 7 Timer, to see what the 7 indicators within the program might have to say, as I figured it should be just about to that place where those indicators might be setting up new signals of low market risk. I know it so well, I can pretty much know what it’s going to say before I update it.

The price of gold has recently been whacked. I wrote of that recently. Whacked? Yes. But did it alter the interpretation of the price and volume action? Did it mean the bull was no longer in force? And, the answer to that question is truly a resounding NO! Everything is still within the technical bounds of a true bull market.

From the Xpert, price is right in-between the two lower trading bands, with the shadows or tails of the candlesticks touching the lower of those 2 bands. It is saying risk is low. The F1 indicator, however, has turned down, but could truly use at least 2, and more likely 3 more days before it could signal. F2 is in the signal camp, but as I always say, it tends to be both first and early, so I put little stock in it. F3, however, is another matter. It’s at 10, and is now signaling. F4 looks to be at -3, and that very nearly constitutes a signal of -3.5. One more day could easily get it there. F5 is under 40, at 32, and that rates as a signal. While, F6 is at 4 or 5, and is in the signal camp with most of the others.

My take is that this may well be a pivotal week for the metals. The timer gives me reason to believe that. But, also, a look at the mining stocks and funds tell me another thing. They are so far outperforming the actual metals, gold and silver, that they are saying that they “see” a move up in the metals prices, and perhaps even a goodly bull rally beyond overhead resistance places. Price and volume action since 3/1, and especially since 3/20, has been a very real, but nearly stealthy, transition to a more positive picture. They’re saying… Something IS up, and I believe it’s going to be a very positive upside surprise… a true rally. I put a great deal of confidence in my work. I really think I’ve got a grip, a handle, on this market. And, we’re going to have an opportunity to make a great deal of money in the metals, at some point in the future. Will it be in this year? I’m thinking that it will, and I trust we’ll be right there at the very birth of it, so as to get on board early, and go for a rewarding ride.

Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold f Crowell

Whacked?!?!?

Thursday, May 17, 8:09 am EST. The metals have been whacked. But, we never called for, or put on a trade. And, so, even though we had called a low-risk market entry opportunity, and the markets were taking that opportunity to turn upward… I could not see any serious confirmation taking place… not enough to convince me that it could be trusted, and so, I did not call for a trade.

Since, the metals have been thrown back again, and last I had looked, silver was ‘on the ropes’ of downside support! So, now, we must examine all the charts again, and continue to ask and answer, where are we? What is most likely to happen? And, are there any clues as to when it might most likely commence?

Wednesday was another one of those go nowhere, do nothing, kind of days. After the metals had taken a hard hit Tuesday, they did not continue to fall further or harder, and so the miners responded in kind, by sort-of marking time, on hold, and on very little volume… 25% lower than its own 50-day average. It was a wait-and-see day in the market for mining shares. It resulted in about one half being slightly up, while the other half was slightly down… and the net was 1 more up than down, and there being the tiniest net gain in price of .02%.

Even now, gold is off slightly, while silver is ahead by a bit. It may be another relatively quiet day, again, today. We’re still waiting for The Big One!

Time to gather up the data, and update the timer, too… to see if any clue might be given as to whether risk might be measured as being all wrung out again, or not, any time soon.

Harold

Why I Did NOT Call for a Trade

Tuesday, May 15, 7:25 pm EST. If anyone put a position on, after I had said the timer was calling for a lo-risk market entry signal… please know that I did not say anyone should take a position. I try to always look for some kind of confirmation within the price and volume action first, and I could not find one, even though some bit of evidence was trying to show itself. I could not bite. It was totally inadequate, to my way of thinking, as to be making any case to step up and be a buyer. I certainly didn’t.

So, today, Tuesday, was a pretty hard day… I think gold was off some $22 an oz.? Yeh, gold and silver both declined the better part of 2% today! So, what do the charts say? Neither the price, nor the volume action, was anything to be alarmed about. Interestingly enough, GDX and NUGT, really took it on the chin in comparison with the individual miners I had selected and follow. Gold and silver both were hard hit… silver fell all the way back down right to previous support. The gap from which gold opened at didn’t cause the miners, apart from the 2 mining funds I just mentioned, to fall hard at all! I find all this be very intriguing! While overall volume was up by 35%, the vast majority of that was on GLD and the mining funds… not the individual mining companies!

The one chart of everything doesn’t look all that terribly bad at all. It’s still well contained within the very nearest low, which was on 5/1. And, the shift in overall tone I noticed that had taken place, specifically by 3/20, is still intact. Believe it, or not, we are still in a Bull Market in the metals… Still!!!

One of the key indicators of that is that the miners are performing better than the metals themselves, on a relative basis. That is not how they perform during a bear market. The miners perform worse than even the metals. Hang tight!

Harold