Is Now the Time?

Friday, May 26, 2023. Been updating the timer and tracking the price of gold… I see it is up some $11.40 an oz this morning, and it just may be that it is wanting to turn right here… It’s always hard to say, of course, but here is what I’ve got…

In the OEXpert 7 Timer, the following conditions exist which say this could be that time… The price of GLD has fallen to where it is touching the lower of its two lower trading bands at 180.00. That’s a signal. The F1 indicator is at 9. That is under 10 and a signal in itself. F2, ever first and early, is at -8 and signaling. F3 is now also under 10, at 8, and that is a signal. F4 is at -7 and that also is either a signal, or so close, that I should put it in the camp. The same could just about be said for F5. It signals at 40 or lower, and is at 45. I wish it had gotten there so as to build my confidence more. Finally, F6 is sideways at 10 for the past 3 days. Again, another I wish had gone lower. Nothing bolsters my confidence more than when it hits 0.

So, by my 7 technical measures in the Xpert, it’s fair to say that some 6 of those are saying risk has gotten quite low, which it does at the end of any downtrend, of which all of May, since the last top on the 4th has been.

Is now the time to take a position in NUGT? I wish I were more confident and could say yes… But what I would like to do is to reach out to my trader friends and ask them to look into GLD and NUGT in their systems to see if they note any kind of low-risk technical extreme by their specific indicators, system, and rules.

As any should get back to me, I’ll share that here. I should add that a couple or three truly big name pros in this field are saying that a breakout into all new price high territory is coming soon… IF it were to do so, it would likely commence from off of a technically measurable bottom as what we may be looking at right here, I would suppose. So, let me inquire, and I’ll learn what any of my friends might have to say…

Harold

Deep Analysis

Friday, April 7, 2023. Markets are closed today, so I want to do a deep dive into this sector and what to expect… Have metals taken a serious turn, and are they about to run?

I’ll chart all 63 exchange-listed issues I have. I’ll look at GDX and GDXJ. I’m hungry and I’m looking to see if we are on the cusp of something huge. There ought to be clues! I’m thinking volume will be very important here.

I start my charting by listing the issues by market cap, as I’ve always been told that the Big Boys, the Generals lead, and the smaller stuff they just can’t buy follows and typically out performs… often by a lot.

So, let’s start with Newmont, NEM. It has broken out above its down-trending 200-day moving average and pulled away from it in the past week. Volume HAS been increasing, and the volume on UP days has been markedly more than volume on recent down days, showing signs of positive accumulation. The last 8 trading days have been most telling, and it’s all good.

Barrick, GOLD, is up next, and if anything it looks very similar, but even better! It’s stronger than NEM.

FNV has been exceptionally strong, but volume behind price the past few weeks has been unconvincing.

With Agnico Eagle, AEM, we’re right back into the ‘excitement’ of this move. Since 3/8, it’s become a darling!

A personal favorite, of which we own a good deal, Wheaton Precious Metals, WPM… It is exhibiting tremendous bullish action, though all seem to be pausing to catch that breath that refreshes. I will need to note a price support level under each, and especially in index of them, to see if prior resistance, recently turned support, will hold.

So, as I chart the average of all 63… the date 3/9 is the low, and my timer caught that, as you can read in previous posts.

Gold Fields, GFI, has moved marvelously and is now at a multi-month high, not too very far from challenging its distant 52-week high!

AngloGold, AU, is positively gorgeous! Textbook bull. The recent lows were right on its 200-day moving average line and has since risen hugely on massive new volume!

Royal Gold, RGLD, has also been doing very well! Rising nearly every day since 3/8, and on much greater volume, it’s having a fine run.

Pan American Silver, PAAS, commenced to turn 2/28. Since then it has all only been a very bullish picture, as it has broken well above it’s 200-day, with volume behind it. All its moving averages are making bullish efforts at upturns.

Kinross Gold, KGC, is awesome! Price, volume and moving average action are all saying, “I’m on fire!”

Sibanye Stillwater, SBSW, is not well. Price action, volume, and its moving averages are all saying this a is a dog among thoroughbreds! Stay away.

We come right back to a HUGE winner in Alamos Gold, AGI! It’s among the very best I’ve seen so far!

Those were the biggest 12, and anything over $5 billion in size. From here, we begin to move into what are the smaller and truly small cap issues. Is money making it’s way over here, too, AND are the moves or momentum even greater, indicating that the Generals have given their orders, and the foot soldiers are running to the front??? Let’s see.

I own B2 Gold Corp, BTG, because of the high and safe dividend. It has the highest dividend among them all, but sickly SBSW. And its dividend is also the safest among the higher yielders here. It’s exhibiting lots of good strength like the rest, and is also at that place of testing its prior resistance. If the others prevail, BTG likely will, too.

Hecla’s a silver miner, HL, and is a picture newly emerging bullish health like so many of the others.

SSR Mining is interesting. It’s NOT the picture of health nearly every one of the preceding is, but it is giving off this ‘wanna be’ appearance as if to say it is really trying to become another one of those that is healthy and strong.

There’s a NEW one in the charts I’d not seen before. Triple Flag, TFPM. It has actually joined the fray, and taken off, to show a very bullish appearance as of 3/22, with only ONE down day since 3/21… all the other 11 trading days since have been UP! With a picking up of volume since 3/31 here in April.

Osisko Gold, OR, is beautiful! A picture of health and strength in a most bullish sense! All the signs are there: Great price action on expanding volume, with all its moving average lines in perfect array… Price is above it uptrending 20, which is above the uptrending 50, which is also above its uptrending 200-day. Up some 66% in the past 6 months. Ya gotta ask yourself, what more convincing do you need?

We have another very lovely picture in Harmony Gold, HMY. It’s all good; price, volume, moving average lines.

BVN does not have a good signature. It’s gone largely nowhere since 11/10 of last year… sideways! It shows relative signs of life, but not as any leader in this sector, and best left alone.

First Majestic, AG, is positively struggling in this group. Something is wrong here, as it is clearly a laggard and in no way a leader.

Novagold Resources, NG, is another of no particular strength. It’s bullish, but lagging. It’s not a leader, and I would not by it.

On the other hand, Eldorado Gold, EGO, is in tremendous shape! I’d like to see a better, more positive, volume signature, but price action and its related moving average lines are healthy and strong!

Sandstorm Gold, SAND, strikes me like Novagold did, bullish, but not particularly strong and lagging.

We have a true WINNER in Equinox Gold, EQX. Just since 3/8 its been rising hard and fast on good volume, and leading!

So, enough of this! I’m going to re-sort the list by actual recent price strength and just note those that are powerful since the bottom. I’ll not use names or descriptions; just the symbols, and they’ll be of the same description, those having price, volume and moving average lines all in their favor… Ready? They are…

AU, MUX, PPTA, GATO, HMY, EQX, DRD, NFGC, EXK, KGC, GFI, AGI, OR, SAND, BTG, EGO, AEM, WPM, GOLD, RGLD, HL, ASM, and lastly NEM.

There’s some 23 of the 63 that are looking very sound.

Lastly, I want to chart NUGT, GDX and GDXJ. NUGT has been the BEST moving of late, because it is 2x leverage against an index of miners, and I’m in a trade with it now, and have moved up a stop, to keep a goodly profit, should it fall back from here. It is in a place where it JUST broke out, and has paused above prior resistance. This can be a very good thing, for if resistance becomes support in here, there’s going to be another whole new leg up.

GDX is looking wonderful… Price is well up, volume has expanded nicely and the moving average lines are all good, too. This is supposed to be an index of the major producers.

So, what about GDXJ? It’s an index of the minors, and from what I’ve seen, a good number of the minors look very well, and have run ahead of the Generals. However, looking at all 63 charts, a great number of the minors are very small and not well at all. So again, what about GDXJ? It looks a lot like GDX and has nearly caught up with it in terms of momentum… if price action to the upside should resume soon, I would expect it to power ahead as evidence that this movement into the metals and their minors is the real deal!

A few big pluses I see… One, more than half the miners are running faster than the price of gold itself, and two, GLD has its own very impressive looking chart. Price is at new 52-week highs, and NOT FAR FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS.

And this will be the crux of the whole matter. Price is moving, and hope is building that all this is going to result in a new breakout into new all-time high prices in the metals. Silver has been stopped at $23 for 3 days in a row… As gold might run higher, silver will breakout above the $23 resistance… and it’s high is in the $26 range, not too terribly far away.

We’ve plenty in this metals area. I need to watch more the miners, or at least GDX and GDXJ, as both are good proxies for them. I track GLD rather carefully, as I look to it to signal to me if the miners even need to be examined. GLD signaled a low-risk buying opportunity almost a month ago, and I could see the very price action in the metals, gold and silver, telling me that something ‘new’ seemed to be happening, and so I believe that it is. It would be very early yet, and I’m expecting a pause in here, before it really takes off and runs… as I am thinking it will. More as I should get back to this.

My NUGT trade is ahead by 18%!

Harold

Still In!

Wednesday, April 5, 2023. My last line, back on 3/23 was, “JUST jumped back in at 2:20 pm ET at $40.054 a share. It’s a gamble, but if gold were to breakout into new 52 week highs anytime soon, this thing could scream!!! Let’s see what happens…”

I’m still in. NUGT closed at $46.46 Tuesday, a new 52-week high, for a 16% gain. Gold is UP a couple more dollars in the pre-market overseas. Everything would seem to say that we are at key resistance here, and that it might make good sense that upward momentum might stall here, even back up and correct a bit.

Even if NOTHING like that were to happen, now is that time a trader will tighten his stop, so as to determine how much he is willing to lose of his gain, and how much he insists he must take out, should the stop get hit.

One other perspective is: Man, you’ve got a 16% gain, and a possible higher open in a couple of hours. You only bought in LESS than 2 weeks ago… Take the money and RUN! That makes good sense, too! We’ve other precious metals assets we hold all the time that has totally benefitted in this, too. So, it is in no way like “I’m getting out of metals,” if I close the trade!

There are other options besides, and this is in an IRA, a tax-qualified account.

I used a software trading strategy to get in… I need to look at it so as to let it help me decide where I’d get out. More about that later…

Harold

I Was “Shaken Out”!!!

Thursday, March 23, 2023. In my previous posts, I had commenced my very first trade into the double-leveraged ETF on gold, that being NUGT.

I was so clever, because I could see gold bottoming in my timer, and thought I’d jump on it early back on 3/1… and I did! So, what happened?

It was lifting off just as I anticipated, and I was feeling so smug, and then it turned back down… and I got out with an 8.2% loss… in at $32.27 and out on 3/7 at $29.625. NUTS!

Then, it turned right back up… here we are on the 23rd… and NUGT rose JUST AS I HAD thought that it would, and is $39.44 as I type this… DOH!

Not to fret too greatly, as ALL our other metals holdings have completely benefitted by this price rise.

Now, the trading system HAS given buy signals SINCE I bought and got “shaken out” of my trading position… It signaled to Buy on Tuesday the 21st, and is generating another Buy right now, as I type this.

Further, the same system on GLD, the price of the metal itself, gave buy signals on 3/16 and 17… It’s approaching, so as to challenge its previous 52 week high of last April 18. How much you wanna bet that if it should break through that point of resistance, it takes off real good???

I am contemplating re-entering a trade. Why not? I’ll think on this more in a bit… I’ve no time right now….

JUST jumped back in at 2:20 pm ET at $40.054 a share. It’s a gamble, but if gold were to breakout into new 52 week highs anytime soon, this thing could scream!!! Let’s see what happens…

Harold

Fed Shot That All to Heck!

Tuesday, March 7, 2023. The Fed spoke, and everything changed. Rates rose, bonds dropped, stocks fell, as did the METALS!

I sold out of my NUGT position for an 8.2% loss. You stop your losses quickly, so as to live another day. It’ll be a little time yet, but I’ll keep an eye on all of this, and attempt to move back in at a later time on another buy signal.

Harold

Will We Confirm?

Friday, March 3, 2023. I called the bottom of the metals market the other day. I took on a small trade in NUGT on the 1st. Prices are up a decent amount overseas overnight last night. If they come to our shores this morning, it should translate into a nice opening pop in my initial NUGT position.

Now, I will be watching the technical indicators in the trading system I presently have in place. As they should fire a BUY, I’m going to add shares, perhaps double-up on them.

I’ve a number of swing-trading friends, and I alerted them all about GLD and NUGT, and some got back to me to say they would or were watching them, and that they would communicate to the rest of us when their systems signaled. If we were to make this a real habit or pattern among us… we will have created what is referred to as a “Trading Room,” where traders gather and swap trades setting up in their systems. We just then look at them in our own, and decide whether we want to participate in the trade as well.

IF all goes well today, I would expect a number of systems signals to give BUYs to these friends, and because MANY traders the world over employ similar systems, traders getting BUYS and taking on positions are what help to truly get these rallies up off the floor and moving.

As I should hear word of friends getting BUY signals, and taking up their own positions, I’ll add content here.

R U Ready?!?!?

Harold

Nibble A Bit…

Afternoon of Wednesday, March 1. So, following my comments and ‘advice’ of my last post below, I have taken a small preliminary position in NUGT, a 2X leveraged fund of the miners index, as the metals have continued to move up overnight overseas, and here in the US today. I do NOT have an actual Buy signal yet, but a rather high conviction that it will.

Should I get a buy signal, as I hope and expect, I’ll add to my current position and report it here. I said I had a new trading system in place, and I do… I am hoping this might generate that first profitable trading signal for me, as the Xpert Timer told me I could expect a turn up in the metals, and it appears to be getting underway NOW!

Let’s see what happens, I bought in at $32.27 a share about noon EST.

Harold

Do You See it?!?!?

Tuesday, February 28, 2023. Gold appears to be making the turn! Do you see it? A bit on Monday, and a good bit more today! I’m watching.

Here’s what I’ve got. The Price of GLD in the OEXpert 7 had gotten down into both of its 2 lower trading bands, and is turning up and about out of them. This says BUY. F1 is coming off of 1, and is already at 9. It says BUY. F2 has turned up off of -10, and that is saying BUY. F3 is rising right out of 1 and is at 4. It says BUY. F4 has turned up from -8. It’s now at -5 and rising. It says BUY. F5 got all the way down to 5. It has also turned up, is at 11, and that is saying BUY. F6 was at 1 for several days, has turned up, is now at 5, and that is also a BUY. Hmmm, what do you suppose we should DO?

Time to make sure I have all the exchange listed miners in a watchlist (the number does change), add NUGT as a 2X leveraged ETF against an index of these, and look for similar signs of life among them.

Back after I’ve done that! I may be giving an all out BUY call. Watch for it…

So, moments later… The GLD ETF has only just barely started to turn its line of Relative Strength upward, that it might commence to head toward its other component, where it could give me a BUY signal. So, one might nibble on a small early position, just to say they saw the turn and jumped aboard early as one of the first… for bragging rights, you understand! Haha

Then, it’s off to the miners to look at their charts… to see if there might be any kind of a confirmation among them that they see the turn in gold and are responding to it with a turn up of their own… THAT WOULD be significant!

So, I have 64 listed miners on US exchanges… what do they look like? First sort by market cap, biggest first. The whole group rose nearly 1% today, and the volume did swell a bit, hardly enough to matter… so, this is not looking good yet. What of the charts of each individual miner themselves?

Well, IF this is going to turn into anything… we are just NOW detecting it. There is as of yet NO kind of a confirmation that it is real. The very best I’ve got is that the fastest of the relative strength measures is beginning to turn back upward from their steadily downward trajectory. My trading system is NOT on a buy signal, but I will ask of my “brethren,” my fellow swing traders. I will early alert them of what I see and they can all put GLD into their system and together we can track and look for our respective system to give us BUY signals. If a number of us were to get a buy about the very same time… Traders everywhere would commence to pile on.

And what about NUGT, that 2 times leveraged miners index fund? Just beginning to turn its fastest relative measure of price strength line from downward to UP! I’m telling all my friends to look at this, too!

Harold

We’re On Watch!

Thursday, February 23, 2023. We’re on watch for a possible and potential profitable trade.

In the OEXpert 7 Timer, the price of GLD is at its lower trading bands, which serves as a signal that risk might be low. The F1 technical indicator is at 1. That IS a plenty good signal. F2 is in the vicinity of -9, and the lowest I’ve seen on the screen in front of me is a -11, so it’s giving a good signal. F3 is now at only 4, and that qualifies as a signal… It can get to 0. The F4 indicator is also at a -9, and has barely gotten below -10, and so we have a signal here. F5 is as low as it hardly ever gets to at 10. Anything at 40 and lower is a signal. Finally, F6 is flat on the floor. It’s going sideways at 1, and can get to 0 also. The Xpert says risk would appear to be all but absent at this point in time.

Now, a look at the miners, and at NUGT, which is that ETF that mimics the miners, but is leveraged at 2 times the daily movement, and might be that vehicle I might buy to trade, as well as perhaps a few of the very most promising looking miners I might see in my watchlist. Which brings me to another clue I’d long forgotten but have remembered…

In sorting the miners, I was told by an old pro years ago that the small cap soldiers tend to follow the lead of the generals… That is, the big money institutions will drop a bundle into the large-cap major miners, as they have too much to invest or trade to bother with the small-cap miners. But…

You look for the positive/bullish action in the majors, and just look for the small-cap miners to follow, and start accumulating shares of the very most technically healthy looking issues that are giving off the chart patterns that are the easiest to ‘read’ and note support and resistance levels, and look for those that are breaking up and out through prior overhead resistance the quickest and soonest, and start accumulating there.

I remember a Friday in April of ’16 doing this very thing, and by the summer, July and in August, I was sitting on 100% gainers. As I see things falling into place… risk seems low, and just watching for the miners to find support, it will be time to be on the lookout for a rally to commence. It will come, and it will likely be a good one, I hope.

And, it might come soon….

Harold

New Key Clue!

Wednesday, February 22, 2023. I learned an awesome lesson today! I was showing a friend charts on GLD and SLV and how that they looked to be really setting up for the next reversal to the upside. I also showed him how that in the OEXpert 7 Timer, seemingly all the risk had been wrung out.

Then, showing that same friend how that I could chart all the exchange-listed miners… I got a shock! They were all very ugly, and had just been getting uglier. It was right then that I realized…

If I would time GLD and also flash through the charts of all 64 exchange-listed gold and silver miners in my database… You would think that some investors and certainly traders, would be doing some buying right now, in anticipation of the metal’s reversal to the upside… and there’s NOTHING like that in the miner’s charts… at ALL!

So now, I’m feeling a whole lot more confident in that I can track GLD in the OEXpert 7 Timer and look for a low-risk market entry signal in it… which it would appear to be doing right now. AND, I could always be flashing through the charts of each miner, and looking for those that are setting up to become buys!

When both begin to take place at the same time… Katy bar the door, and back up the truck! I’ll be one aggressive buyer!!!

But there are none to be bought at this time… Not so much as ONE!

Harold