IF today is going to be that day, gold’s going to have to rise further… silver’s doing well already, and the miners really are going to have to catch fire. They haven’t yet, pure and simple as that.
But, this day is not yet over………… It’s 10:11 am EST.
Harold
The metals have risen overnight. It’s 7:18 am EST here, and gold is up $6.50, and silver up $.23. Could this possibly ignite something? That’s what we’ll be looking for today.
With the pop Wednesday last week, and no confirmation, follow-through day yet to seal that deal. This is day 7 after that one, and ideally we want to see the high-volume, larger price move type of day to fall within a 4 to 7 day window afterwards as a way of saying that a new rally in the metals and miners is lifting-off.
Barring that, there are 3 more days afterward in which that can still happen, but it’s usually less reliable and certain.
May today be that day!
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
The metals barely moved, and the miners were down… while one was up. So, here we go again, the market is in a limbo, and looking to break one way or the other, and move. But, which way? Every indication, to this point, is that the next move will be UP, but it certainly has not launched yet. Does today’s action give us any clue? Until we examine all 16 charts, I cannot say. So, charts, talk to me, please!
Well, we’ve got losers, but on light volume, as with: SLW, RGLD, PVG, SGDM, SLV, PAAS, GDX, HL, SILJ, ABX, SSRI, CDE and AG.
But, others declined on expanding volume, like: GLD and SGDJ.
And, a gainer! But, on light volume: FSM.
Really? This should be easy… a slightly down day, price support was not broken, and volume was light. How light? On average, for all 16, it was 37% lighter than the 50-day average, and way lighter than last Thursday, Friday, Tuesday, or the up day, Wednesday. To be precise, the bull market is still intact, it is sitting at, or very near support, and it looks to be holding, and waiting for any good reason to launch.
What will be the catalyst? I’m sure I don’t know, but ideally, it would be absolutely super if it could kick off Friday.
May we accumulate real wealth in the metals!
Harold F Crowell
Support has held once again, and prices have reversed this afternoon. We need to be paying very close attention, as the turn is due, but in no way required or must happened. But, it could be beginning to take place. What’s going to happen? The longer support holds, the stronger it becomes.
This IS bottoming-type price action, as NO ONE is ever afraid near a top, and fear is always greatest around lows, and right now, much fear and concern is being generated by this kind of price action.
If you feel fear, the bottom is closer than the top. And, whenever you feel exhilaration, the top is much closer than you believe!
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
Things were beginning to get exciting late Wednesday evening, but all that hope is gone. The $USD has been rising, and the metals selling off again, so that gold is down about $4.50 and silver off by $.15. We could see miners sell again, or we might see more of yesterday’s type of action, where the miners rose, for seemingly no reason more than the sellers had stopped.
Let’s see what the day will bring. Price support still holds, and volume has not yet been of an amount to suggest the bull has been gored. But, watch your stops, and be prepared for whatever might come.
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
I noticed right off, earlier Wednesday, see my previous post, that miner price action was incongruent with the metals prices. Thursday, Friday and Monday, we had a similar thing to happen. Metals were up or flat, but miners were getting plugged. It was profit-taking, and I thought that would be brief. This day, Wednesday, we got the opposite. Gold was off, silver up a bit, but the miners did very well in price. Will today be the beginning of something big? If today was on any kind of goodly volume, then the answer is already yes. But, if volume was light, the jury would still be out, and we’ll need to wait, but tomorrow or Friday would be an ideal time to show its hand, and lift-off on serious volume. Will it? We can only hope and pray, but if it does, do not hesitate… be a buyer! So, what did Wednesday look like? To our charts…
We start with risers (as only GLD declined), that rose on average volume: RGLD and GDX.
Others rose on light volume, like: SLW, SGDJ, SGDM, PVG, SLV, HL, SILJ, ABX, SSRI, FSM, CDE and AG.
We’ve got one big volume riser in: PAAS.
Now, we’ve got those that rose on volume that exceeded recent downside volume, even if it wasn’t huge volume with: RGLD, SLW, PAAS, GDX and ABX. This may be very significant. It would be much more significant, if many, or all of them had. Tuesday’s average volume for all, which was to the downside, was 19% below the 50-day average. But today’s upside volume was greater, and only 12% under the 50-day average. We have evidences of a possible turn here, but far from a confirmation yet. If it would give us a confirmation, follow-through Thursday or Friday, that would be just so cool! May it come, may it come!!!
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Two things… as I retire for Thursday evening at 10 pm EST, the metals are up overseas by a fairly nice amount… and, as I re-charted the average of all 16 symbols, I noticed that today’s candlestick is what is called a Bullish Engulfing type. Bring it on!
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
Anybody else notice? I’ve been noticing that when the metals were up or flat, the miners were being sold. Wednesday morning, the metals are off a bit more from yesterday’s hurtin’, but have you noticed the miners? They’re all in the green; they’re up! This may be a very positive sign that support is being affirmed and that the selling has abated.
It remains to be seen, but this is that time frame in which I am expecting the turn might take place…
The most nimble among us could actually begin to acquire shares right here, put a close stop under them, and possibly become the most pleasantly surprised of us all!
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
The metals declined today, and it was not an insignificant amount. As a result, our miners also took a hit, and they did not decline by any insignificant amount either. So, now we have to take a look, and we have to study the case. We have to ask a few questions. One being, is price support in danger, or broken? Is volume indicating that shareholders are getting spooked and dumping? Those are the questions; now here is my guess. I’m guessing that fear is likely rising. I’m guessing, with the % of price decline, being as big as it is, that volume grew. But, I don’t know anything yet. So, we need the charts. Let’s let them speak to us.
It starts with GLD. The gold ETF declined, but on light volume. Volume was a bit greater than Monday’s, but not so great as to be at all meaningful. Will that be the trend? It’s true of SLW, SLV, PVG, SGDM, SILJ and ABX, also.
Lower, but on expanding volume, and approaching support: RGLD, SGDJ, GDX, PAAS, HL, SSRI and CDE.
We’ve got broken support, Monday, with AG, and it is being joined Tuesday, now with FSM.
I’m certain that tension must be rising. Prices were hit pretty hard, generally speaking, all the gain that was realized last Wednesday, when this market popped, is gone. We’re coming right back to the last place of price support. Volume increased, but… Support, for all but 2 or maybe 3, is still in place. Volume thought greater than Monday’s, was still lower than both last Thursday’s and Friday’s! It was 24% below the 50-day average volume for all 16 symbols.
While we can see that a possible challenge is arising, it must still be deemed a bull market in correction, and it would still be the wiser position to be looking for a confirmation, follow-through rally to launch in this week… and only if we do not, and support is broken on volume, will a hurting time commence, and then it will be necessary to cut losses, preserve our capital, and look for the support that the 200-day moving average of price should provide.
Will tomorrow bring something new and different than what we’ve seen. And, FWIW, the chart patterns of both GLD and SLV, since 7/6 top for GLD, and 8/2 top in SLV, would be described by chart technicians as bullish wedge patterns, having a flat bottom, and a downward sloping top. These wedges are getting tighter, and are being compressed in such a way that they would normally breakout to the upside. This is likely to happen soon! May God gives us all good success!
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
If last Wednesday was truly a new rally lift-off day in price and volume, as it appeared to be, then ideally, we would dearly love to see a confirmation, follow-through day… also in price and on volume. What would that look like? Well, it would like last Wednesday all over again! Will this Tuesday be that day? It’s not looking that way.
Gold and silver have opened and their prices are off a bit as I write at 9:00 am EST. But the metals markets are open ’til 5:00, and then re-open overseas at 6:00. It’ll be a long day. It’s day 4 since the market turned up last Wednesday, and we would ideally like to see it to follow-through for us anytime this week now… if, only it would.
Watch for it, for if it does, and you see it happening, do not hesitate to jump right in with as much as you dare.
If it does not, we will need to reassess over the upcoming weekend, to determine whether the bull market in the metals and miners is at any particular risk. Ready? Good. Now watch and wait, and let us see what will unfold before us.
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
Wow! Another day of miner profit-taking, while the metals, gold in particular, did just fine. Silver lost some more. Well, I’ll take that back. Gold, in the form of symbol GLD, lost $.10 for an .08% decline. We’re hoping, of course, that price is still contained within the support level for every one, and that volume was still light, as it had been Thursday and Friday. It is beginning with tomorrow that we would like to see a confirmation, follow-through rally to launch on big volume. Will it? To our 16 charts!
Whoa! Well now… The first one is SLW, and it declined on still lighter volume, and is still comfortably within support. Just what we want to see! Any others like that? RGLD, GLD, SGDJ, SLV, SGDM, HL, GDX, PAAS, CDE, SSRI, ABX, FSM.
These fell on the same, or greater volume, than before: PVG.
Hmmm, closed on greater volume, but less than its 50-day avg volume: SILJ.
One has broken price support, but on lighter volume than Thursday or Friday: AG. We won’t concern ourselves for this one, as it has already been determined that a firm has been jaw-boning it down; trying to make a profit in it by shorting it.
Folks, this is an ongoing price correction within a bull market. There’s no other way to describe what is happening, up to this point in time. Whereas Friday’s average volume for all 16 was 19% below the 50-day average volume… Mondays was a whoppin’ 46% below that same average!
I see no threat to the bull market. I see it as telegraphing clearly and plainly that this is a price correction. We would be absolutely nailing it, if we get a new rally lift-off any day this week. It would be the confirmation of last Wednesday’s lift-off as a new continuation of this young bull-market.
Do you smell that? I smell money! That’s not to say that I could not be wrong, but until this market proves me wrong, I’m right on target still.
Here’s to your accumulation of real wealth!
Harold F Crowell
Gold Stock Trader 